The Bachelor 17 - Speculation/Spoilers - Discussion

I think that it has to do with the discrimination lawsuit and the opportunities that the show would probably have by having a minority lead. It is possible that a lot of organizations and advertisers that haven't previously been interested might become so. Also, I think that no matter who the lead is, ratings have always been decent (win the 18-49 women demo) and they have always been #1 in tabloid covers.

I kinda agree with this -- I think ratings are something but this show has been around for 10 years and is on for a full 12month cycle unlike a LOT of shows...CH was saying how funny it was that they've been ignored by the emmy's and other awards eventho a lot of shows in the biz haven't even been around for that long. While ratings are part of the bottom line -- i think eventually it also has to do with how strong of a business case TB makes to advertisers and how it's consistently delivered even in the up-and-down climate as media attention shifts (say the olympics)... Part of that business case i think has to do with the public perception of the show and how they could strengthen their appeal by broadening the audience in a way. And that's where i think the discrimination suit comes in...

I doubt there is any way we'll actually hear their reasoning behind this choice but the show is getting more and more savvy about how it uses the tabloids, social media etc. and i imagine they factor in a lot of things when making this decision...

I think they also shot their own foot by some of the bad scandalous press they allowed about Arie earlier this season leaving sean and roberto with the "cleaner" edits. Tho they did redeem him with the whole journal business at the AFTR

emusha wrote:

I think that it has to do with the discrimination lawsuit and the opportunities that the show would probably have by having a minority lead. It is possible that a lot of organizations and advertisers that haven't previously been interested might become so. Also, I think that no matter who the lead is, ratings have always been decent (win the 18-49 women demo) and they have always been #1 in tabloid covers.

I kinda agree with this -- I think ratings are something but this show has been around for 10 years and is on for a full 12month cycle unlike a LOT of shows...CH was saying how funny it was that they've been ignored by the emmy's and other awards eventho a lot of shows in the biz haven't even been around for that long. While ratings are part of the bottom line -- i think eventually it also has to do with how strong of a business case TB makes to advertisers and how it's consistently delivered even in the up-and-down climate as media attention shifts (say the olympics)... Part of that business case i think has to do with the public perception of the show and how they could strengthen their appeal by broadening the audience in a way.

I doubt there is any way we'll actually hear their reasoning behind this choice but the show is getting more and more savvy about how it uses the tabloids, social media etc. and i imagine they factor in a lot of things when making this decision...

I think they also shot their own foot by some of the bad scandalous press they allowed about Arie earlier this season leaving sean and roberto with the "cleaner" edits. Tho they did redeem him with the whole journal business at the AFTR

I actually don't think that was planned - I just don't think TPTB expected RS (and subsequently all the tabloids) to care about Cassie/Arie's relationship that happened 10 years ago. I think that Arie was actually innocent in all this (being told not to tell EM, was approached the way he said he was and not coached/told he would win like RS said), but once they realized that tabloids were making it out to be more scandalous than it really was, they had to deal with it.

In fact, I think they have portrayed Arie as someone who is completely ready for marriage and babies and is very trustworthy, when there has been at least some indication that he is not (I mean, RS is not my favorite person, but if multiple people have contacted him about Arie's past, it's hard to buy that it's completely fabricated).

I still really, really like Arie, and am rooting for him (or Roberto) to be TB, but I am very prepared for his perfect image to take a beating.

The show's formula is what attracts people to watch; The lead and contestant small part of it. (IMO);

For example, Brad 2.0, no one expected that. No one was thinking about Brad.

Ratings are hard to predict. I don't think anyone believed Jake Pavelka will bring him huge ratings, and he did.

Roberto might help attract latino community. But also, the media will have a lot to talk about if he is announced. The first minority bachelor, former bachelorette winner left broken hearted by Ali etc. ("i can picture it all", I stole this from Emily...feel free to sue me for plagiarism)

IrishGal wrote:Roberto is one of my all-time fave contestants so I was thrilled to hear the rumors that he might be next Bach. However, I must confess that as this season played out, I've fallen in love with Arie. I really want to see him find his perfect match. And his sense of humor would be so entertaining (remember "Doug sad, Doug mad"). Sean doesn't do much for me. I think he is a fine, up-standing young man but body builders turn me off. I just don't find their bodies attractive and the few I have known personally seemed very self-absorbed.

See, that part gives me pause. Did he actually fall in love with Emily and was he fully prepared for marriage?? Or was it situational, and all for entertainment. Of all the male leads – very very few are actually married even years after their seasons aired. Firestone, Beurge, Guiney (now divorced), Mesnick and most recently Stork are the only male leads married. I don’t’ think Arie stands any chance of finding anyone other than someone to date for a while and that’s why it doesn’t really matter to me who the lead is – the likelihood there’s a HEA is slim. Whoever does it has their own reasons, I don’t believe finding the love of their life is one of them.

kate123 wrote:And maybe that's what makes him so attractive to Fleiss. You always want what you can't have and Roberto doesn't want the show so the show wants him even more? I don't know. Just a theory for why he's still in the mix. Everyone is right. Outside of the boards, no one really remembers him. If you look at the public polls, he's down around 10 or 15 percent. Having him would almost be like a brand new bachelor.

I disagree - people remember who Roberto is, people are also fickle...and with Sean and Arie being the most visible in the last few months it stands to reason that the majority of the audience would want one of them. Folks wanted an 'ette from Ben's season, we got Emily - although her season wasn't breaking any ratings records it certainly wasn't scraping the bottom of the barrel - and she was more boring than vanilla toast.

we also have to remember that most people right now really don't give a hoot who the next bachelor is, it's folks like us who are still gathering on message boards talking about Em's season who really give a crap.

Wow..what has changed? When I left for vacation on Friday, Arie seemed like a done deal. Lochte still in the running, too, or is looking like Roberto?

Does anyone know how long MF "owns" these guys - i.e. how long would they need ABC or Next's permission to be on another show on a different network or cable? Or, do they have any power over them at all once they are out of the running for TB (other than no squealing about the show)?

RS posted that Roberto was def still in the running, Sean a possibility and Arie a long shot. MF put the kibosh on Lochte as a lead (the media through his name out there just for fun.). Reading RS, it sounds like MF's list looks like this #1 choice: Roberto #2 choice: Sean #3 choice: Arie.

many had already written Roberto off since he, Kip and Tenley pretty much said it wasn't going to happen - we'll see.

NCGalBecca wrote:Wow..what has changed? When I left for vacation on Friday, Arie seemed like a done deal. Lochte still in the running, too, or is looking like Roberto?

Does anyone know how long MF "owns" these guys - i.e. how long would they need ABC or Next's permission to be on another show on a different network or cable? Or, do they have any power over them at all once they are out of the running for TB (other than no squealing about the show)?

Once upon a time (about 2 yrs ago) we were able to glimpse into reality with viewing actual contracts from the show. I suspect there have been some changes in the contracts since then, at least with the main and the F1.
It would be interesting if somehow a recent contract could become public for our eyes.

anders wrote:RS posted that Roberto was def still in the running, Sean a possibility and Arie a long shot. MF put the kibosh on Lochte as a lead (the media through his name out there just for fun.). Reading RS, it sounds like MF's list looks like this #1 choice: Roberto #2 choice: Sean #3 choice: Arie.

many had already written Roberto off since he, Kip and Tenley pretty much said it wasn't going to happen - we'll see.

I'm starting to wonder if they didn't sweeten the pot for Roberto. I do believe he initially turned them down regardless of whether he is still in the running. If that's Fleiss' list then for once we are on the same page - those are my preferences in the same order, Roberto, Sean then Arie.

I remember Roberto! Who could forget him? or Chris L?? The two most handsome and intelligent final guys this show has produced imho. So happy to hear he is still in the running. Chris L. turned it down so I sure hope Roberto does not. I was rooting for Chris 2 yrs ago and that did not pan out but I'd be very happy to see his good buddy Roberto go for it! That is a season I would tune in from start to finish.

I agree with who ever posted upthread that it's not just about the money. Producers and execs will have to lure him with something more than dollar signs and bring in some quality women to choose from. Keeping my fingers crossed it's Roberto. I just wish they'd announce it already so we can stop with the guessing and speculations!

jewels2312 wrote:I remember Roberto! Who could forget him? or Chris L?? The two most handsome and intelligent final guys this show has produced imho. So happy to hear he is still in the running. Chris L. turned it down so I sure hope Roberto does not. I was rooting for Chris 2 yrs ago and that did not pan out but I'd be very happy to see his good buddy Roberto go for it! That is a season I would tune in from start to finish.

I agree with who ever posted upthread that it's not just about the money. Producers and execs will have to lure him with something more than dollar signs and bring in some quality women to choose from. Keeping my fingers crossed it's Roberto. I just wish they'd announce it already so we can stop with the guessing and speculations!

I still say the casual viewer won't remember right off hand who Roberto is. People aren't all addicts like us, LOL! :shocked!:
Then again, the casual viewer will probably watch no matter who it is.

why wouldn't the casual viewer not remember who Roberto is?? Just because folks are casual viewers doesn't mean they're not rabid fans who don't care to post about the show.