Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Agent99 wrote:This should probably be in a different thread, but IMO he has experience.  Imagine how many 18-23 year olds there are at uni.  There were so many responses from those that knew him on SM when he was announced, gushing over him.  If anyone has seen Indiana Jones movies, I can just see this happening

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmkJ0lrCpLQ

IMO he will be looking for someone with a different life experience, so yes, I agree with your outcome #2 @Bobette

Yes we are getting off topic but this deserves to be embedded.



I am also reminded of the statistic that when Professor Brian Cox started teaching, enrolments in Physics from female students on his campus went up like 500%

So off topic, but so worth it, Indy, the original hot nerd 


I agree that Matt will probably take an academic girl far, but not choose her, and will choose someone that he wouldn’t necessarily come across in his everyday life. I’d like to think he’s not at risk of pulling a Jules because even though he’s a nerd, he’s also conventionally attractive, so would have had attention from girls in the past, unlike Jules who couldn’t quite believe his luck when hot girls were interested in him.

@Agent99 @Dirty Street Pie   to all the above; we are on the same page.

And bringing us back to topic, I agree he will most likely take an academic girl to the end but not choose her, and oh look the Sportsbet odds are trying to trick people into thinking a blonde from Vic will win, and we also have Chelsea, a hot blonde chemical engineer from Vic, who's SM activity suggests she arrived back at the end of filming and therefore is IMO probably the F2.

QED as they say in the math world. (... yet now watch me be totally wrong).  

I wonder where red ruffles comes in bc wouldn't she be considered a blonde? I feel like it is highly likely she's in f3 bc she had more chemistry with Matt than Chelsea.

ThankMeLater wrote:I wonder where red ruffles comes in bc wouldn't she be considered a blonde? I feel like it is highly likely she's in f3 bc she had more chemistry with Matt than Chelsea.

This is where it gets confusing because Chelsea is not who we thought she was.  If we've got it right out now, we don't actually have any pics of Matt with Chelsea, only her standing with the other girls waiting to meet Matt on night 1 in her one-shoulder dress, so there is no way to tell if they had chemistry or not.

The girl we thought was Chelsea (the tall, very thin blonde who wore the crocheted dress on night 1, the pink jumper in the pap pics, and had the SD with him at the farm) is actually someone else.   No idea who she is but she looks like a model or flight attendant or similar IMO and dare I say probably not academic.

I agree I saw chemistry with Ruffles on night 1 and on their date, so it's possible she goes far, and yes I would class her as a blonde, but Sportsbet are always on the money, and if they're confident the winner has black hair then Ruffles can't be F1 IMO. I've learned to trust Sportsbet more than my own eyes when it comes to this show.

Have the other girls that you all found followed anyone else or have tptb shut that down ? Someone must have followed Samba or blue sequins by now.

ThankMeLater wrote:Have the other girls that you all found followed anyone else or have tptb shut that down ? Someone must have followed Samba or blue sequins by now.

Yeah that party got shut down unfortunately.  It was good while it lasted though.

ETA: I was just thinking that if the Top 4 was Ruffles, Chelsea, White Crochet, and the raven-haired F1, then 3/4 would be blonde.  No wonder Sportsbet are offering such short odds with that massive max bet...  Come punters, give us ALL your blonde money!

@Bobette thanks for the great Betting/Odds explanation!! I created a NO Discussion thread for future stats you all may want to keep!

Bets - Odds NO Discussion

Thanks @GuardianAngel

I think we need to look deeper at Sogand.  She fits all the criteria (black hair, from NSW and potentially in her early 30s if she's got an engineering degree).  Someone could have been operating her IG account while she was away hence the SM changes early May.

She got the first date though, and statistically first date contestants have never won on Bach or Bette AU.  Top 4/5 usually but never F1.  I wonder if there was time for an earlier date and she was actually second.  Second dates have been F1 50% of the time.  

Hmmm...

Thank you all for the breakdown of the betting odds. What are the chances the hair color odds change? Or are the hair color odds something that has stayed constant in the past because it's not something that would change as more information is revealed about the contestants. I really feel Ruffles was one of, if not the, frontrunner early on.

olive54321 wrote:Thank you all for the breakdown of the betting odds. What are the chances the hair color odds change? Or are the hair color odds something that has stayed constant in the past because it's not something that would change as more  information is revealed about the contestants. I really feel Ruffles was one of, if not the, frontrunner early on.

It's normal for odds to fluctuate during filming, but not after F1 has been chosen.  Sportsbet are in the business of making money; they don't care about spoilers and are not going to lose $$$'s just to conceal TPTB's ending.

They're not like us.  They won't be sniffing around for clues and stalking contestant's social media to get a hint of who won.  They know, IMO. They will have received F1's name from their insider and will be confident IMO. 

As soon as episode 1 airs, the hair/state/age categories will be replaced by individual odds for the girls by name.  However, Sportsbet still have to pay out on bets placed now, so the hair/state/age of F1 will prove to be accurate IMO.

IMO it will be immediately obvious who wins, by calculating the max loss for each girl after ep 1.  Sportsbet have never been wrong with their predicted F1.  The challenge is to figure out F1 before ep 1, when the cat escapes the bag!

Exceptions:

On Sophie's season they had Luke as the winner on night 1, but since we had been tipped off pre-season by media articles that Stu was likely to win, we waited to see his odds when he arrived, and they confirmed he was F1.

With Nick's season, the odds were REALLY WEIRD from the beginning, with a very high max loss of $50-$100 for all girls and no clear winner.  This was one of the earliest signs for me that Nick had chosen to leave single.

Ruffles was a front runner for me too.  Matt looked SO into her!  But she's blonde, and if the individual Sportsbet figures puts one of the black haired girls in the F1 spot after ep 1, for me that will seal the deal that it can't be Ruffs. 

Perhaps she just wasn't that into him...