Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

@Bobette TY for the great explanation. That makes a lot of sense! You guys are amazing sleuthing this stuff.

olive54321 wrote:@Bobette TY for the great explanation. That makes a lot of sense! You guys are amazing sleuthing this stuff.

I honestly just find the whole betting thing fascinating.  Sportsbet literally CANNOT LOSE if they know the winner (which it's obvious IMO they do).  They even have a disclaimer at the top of the Bach betting page saying this:



Source

... which to me is a blatant admission they know who wins.  They probably can't believe their luck that people bet on anyone other than the person with the cleverly-concealed lowest max loss - it's guaranteed money in their pocket.

I actually have a theory that Sportsbet's "source" is TPTB themselves.  Sounds counter-intuitive, but if they're in cahoots, they both win - Sportsbet get their free money and TPTB get another avenue to craft their storyline, by directing the audience's attention towards a different "favourite" each week (thus obscuring the winner till the end).

E.G. from Matty's season, TPTB IMO probably tipped off Sbet to give Lisa the shortest odds after ep 1 (Laura always had lowest max loss, but most people wouldn't think to check that).  So Sportsbet make money from the losing Lisa bets, and TPTB get an audience who think they know who's going to win, but then *surprise* oh look she doesn't.

Then we have the media.  Only pics of certain dates are "revealed" during filming; again this influences who punters are likely to bet on: "I saw on DM he had a date with the skinny blonde towards the end so I'll bet on her..." Ka-CHING more money in Sportsbet's pocket, and another red herring pointing away from the (apparently black haired) winner.

And then the real maestros, the paparazzos. The glue that holds everything together.  They see it all.  They know for sure who wins IMO.  Probably placing nice fat bets on the winner right now as a little end of season bonus, while also accepting hush money to keep their pics underwraps so the public doesn't find out who really wins (can't have that ).

So much wheeling and dealing going on behind the scenes IMO... and yet people think it's "just a silly dating show".

Bobette wrote:Just checked Ali's thread.  Taite's criteria had the lowest preseason max payout (though only just).  And of course when the individual odds came out, he was the clear winner.  



Source

Really want to try to work out who this black haired girl is before the premiere because it'll be all over red rover at that stage (unless an intruder wins... which probably isn't likely)

Clearly Sportsbet are no dummies.  Look at that MASSIVE max bet for blondes.  IMO they're confident the winner isn't blonde, and are banking on the fact that people will think she is.

All suggests to me that either F2 or an early favourite will be blonde and that F1 will definitely not be .  

Dirty Street Pie wrote:
                             Max bet                  Max winnings

Blonde                   143                         243
Black.                    15.                          112.50
Brunette.               43.                          141.90
Red.                      20.                          120

Vic.                      50.                           100
Qld.                     20.                           130
NSW.                   25.                           75
WA.                     20.                           80
SA.                     20.                           240

Source

ETA: Do we have any non-MOTs from WA?

Correct me if I am wrong. Based on the above max bets and winning:

Blonde Sportsbet will lose $100($243 -$143)
Black Sportsbet will lose $97.50
Brunette Sportsbet will lose $98.90
Red Sportsbet will lose $100

They are all quite similar.

With the states where the F1 will come from, the min loss for Sportsbet is either Vic or NEW wirh $50 nett loss

OMG, you're right @Enough I was just looking at what the maximum payout would be, without accounting for the money that was put on in the first place. Looking at it that way, no hair colour is off the table

Good catch! But what does this mean? Didn't Nick's season not have much of a difference between hair color? He picked nobody. But in Matt's case, he does apparently pick somebody.

Why would they make the payout fairly similar? Why does blond have such a high max bet?? And yet they still cap the winnings at 100 dollars. Could it be reverse psychology for those who have caught onto sportsbets' games? That way, people might bet on black hair thinking they got one on sportsbet when in actuality the winner is blonde. And even if the winner is blonde, they cap the winnings at 100 dollars. I have my tinfoil hat on.

@Enough You are totally right. @Dirty Street Pie I missed that step too don't worry THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING! Yay.

With all things being even for max payout, then wouldn't it make sense to look at the odds for an indication of the winner?

Then, in my estimation, the winner is most likely a blonde because blonde has the shortest odds? And black hair would be a long shot because they have the longest odds, which means that for every 1 dollar someone bets on black hair, they would have to pay out 7.50, which they would not want to do.

olive54321 wrote:With all things being even for max payout, then wouldn't it make sense to look at the odds for an indication of the winner?

Then, in my estimation, the winner is most likely a blonde because blonde has the shortest odds? And black hair would be a long shot because they have the longest odds, which means that for every 1 dollar someone bets on black hair, they would have to pay out 7.50, which they would not want to do.

Are we looking at the odds (shortest to win) and not the max pay out now? Which would change our focus off black hair to blonde? How has the betting gone for different seasons? Is it usually shortest/smallest odds correspond to who wins with who has the lowest amount Sportsbet will lose? Or both separate or together?
Explain, we have nothing else to go on until more promos and girls are given. Or Sportsbet makes it more obvious who wins

Zaynab wrote:

olive54321 wrote:With all things being even for max payout, then wouldn't it make sense to look at the odds for an indication of the winner?

Then, in my estimation, the winner is most likely a blonde because blonde has the shortest odds? And black hair would be a long shot because they have the longest odds, which means that for every 1 dollar someone bets on black hair, they would have to pay out 7.50, which they would not want to do.

Are we looking at the odds (shortest to win) and not the max pay out now? Which would change our focus off black hair to blonde? How has the betting gone for different seasons? Is it usually shortest/smallest odds correspond to who wins with who has the lowest amount Sportsbet will lose? Or both separate or together?
Explain,   we have nothing else to go on until more promos and girls are given. Or Sportsbet makes it more obvious who wins

I'm not sure. Honestly, I'm new to this stuff. I'm just spitballing and throwing theories out.

Wait, but looking at Taite's early season odds, his categories were just barely the lowest payout as well. The massive max bet for blonde is throwing me off.

I just read the last few pages and see that I think the most probable winner still has black hair, due to the max payout and the odds just being that way to confuse anyone and entice whoever would bet this far out of it airing making them think a blonde will win due to low odds. The winner having black hair just isn’t far out away from the others as an obvious win yet, cause I think they don’t want to make it to obvious. But I was reading the odds for Ali’s season and like one of you said Taite’s demographics max payout was the lowest but similar to others as well. When the contestants are announced and the first episode airs, IMO there will be an obvious winner like Sportsbet always knows and more input from the newspaper and paparazzi for us to go on. It’s also hard because of the black haired contestants, they aren’t giving us much to go on right now. If we could just find the feather girl who I don’t think he chooses but you never know. Also, I’d like to know more about Sogand’s SM behavior.

On page 2 of this thread @Bobette has explained how the betting works in terms of figuring out the favourite. Apparently it is the max bet that determines the favourite. The odds are there to entice bettors, but the one that will cause them to lose the least amount of money is the winner...and that is determined by how much money people are allowed to bet.

I'm not sure if this clearly explains it. As I said, go to page 2 and read what she wrote. It will probably make a lot more sense.

@Zaynab, @olive54321, Yes, it goes off the max loss for Sportsbet, not the lowest odds - our mistake was that we missed a step when working out the calculations upthread.  

@Enough picked up the mistake, and it now shows that they have all hair colours at pretty much the same max loss - so black haired winner is now no more likely than any other colour.  

I for one am super excited about this revelation

In previous seasons the age/state/hair figures have proven to be accurate and IMO they will again here, but the individual max losses after ep 1 are the biggest indication.