BACHELOR 22 - Arie Luyendyk Jr General Discussion - **NO SPOILERS** - *SLEUTHING* DISCUSSION

*Snipped* from SC thread
I watched the preview at the end of "Countdown to Arie" and although it is much like the preview that was out Dec 11; these VOs were not featured in other previews:



My SCs

And then there's ep. 5 emphasis of Arie having fears of choosing the wrong person mid-way through the journey. Edits are shifting a little. For the last few episodes, there is really no clear F1 edit, except maybe Bekah with the "doubt angle," imo.

Then this in VO after ep. 1 season previe
"Along this journey, I went through so much confusion, and my biggest fear was getting to the end and proposing to someone who wasn't right."
"I'm going to tell this girl I love her, and hopefully get down on one knee. And I just hope I don't regret it."

Is this a ruse? Or is it a pattern?

@agentcurls Thanks for pointing that out. So more talk of picking someone who wasn't right starting with the season preview. I had forgotten. The fact that it was included there and we have noticed it being repeated so much throughout the season so far, has to mean something.

Does he regret sending someone home? Does he do a Mesnick? No wonder I think something funky is going on with this season, although to be honest, I don't see what difference it makes who he picks since to me he doesn't seem into any of them. Maybe he is really good at hiding his emotions? More likely his face is frozen from botox. It has looked plastic and shiny all season.

I have to disagree with you about baby Becs. I don't think she has an F1 edit at all....although I would be hard pressed to point out who actually does. While doubt and conflict about resolving some issue is usually associated with F1, she is being shown in all the conflict/drama with Krystal which isn't typical of the F1 edit. If it had only been once, I might have been able to let is pass, but she has been repeatedly involved in confronting Krystal, so not typical F1 edit IMO.

Sprite wrote:@agentcurls Thanks for pointing that out. So more talk of picking someone who wasn't right starting with the season preview. I had forgotten. The fact that it was included there and we have noticed it being repeated so much throughout the season so far, has to mean something.

Does he regret sending someone home? Does he do a Mesnick? No wonder I think something funky is going on with this season, although to be honest, I don't see what difference it makes who he picks since to me he doesn't seem into any of them. Maybe he is really good at hiding his emotions? More likely his face is frozen from botox. It has looked plastic and shiny all season.

I have to disagree with you about baby Becs. I don't think she has an F1 edit at all....although I would be hard pressed to point out who actually does. While doubt and conflict about resolving some issue is usually associated with F1, she is being shown in all the conflict/drama with Krystal which isn't typical of the F1 edit. If it had only been once, I might have been able to let is pass, but she has been repeatedly involved in confronting Krystal, so not typical F1 edit IMO.

That's a good point, @Sprite. So if baby Beks is not F1,  then that leaves Lauren and Kendall in the F4 at least, but not sure about the other two. Possibly Becca since they seem to have an easygoing relationship- but that's part of the problem with Becca as an F1- there is no conflict thus far but, maybe that will change. Does Bekah get a HTD I wonder? Then Kendall at this point can't be F1 based on the jokey-edit, plus 2:1 date. Lauren's edit is really confusing because we see her moving forward with Arie, but then the foreboding "I'm scared I'll fall for you and then you pick someone else." Currently, Arie seems most romantically into Lauren (whom he seems to be seeking out-plus affectionate gestures other than bandit-y style kisses) and Bekah, however he is starting to hold back with her.
Do you think it's possible he tries a "wait & see" - much like Charlie O'Connell? Or there is some kind of change of heart ATFR.  Maybe a break-up. I don't think after all of this talk of regretting his choice, and fearful of choosing the wrong person, hopes he doesn't regret it, etc. amounts to a default choice because everyone will say it's a default choice after all that conjecture, right?

Hi unspoiled gang! I am still here and was sick last week just like you Sprite. No fun! Anyhow, I agree that I don't think Baby Beks is getting F1 edit. I think if she was 25 years old, she would be high on his list but he is freaking out about her age.

This episode in particular, I think he started to freak out about being 5 weeks in and his early top 3 contenders ... Baby Beks, Krystal and to some degree, Chelsea ... are falling out of the running. Krystal is a nut and I think the "mysterious" Chelsea is starting to be less mysterious to him.

I know that this is validated by screen caps but you can see he is making an active attempt with ...

Kendall - she is a bit goofy but also has a wise side to her. I like her a lot and think she is definitely going to be contender for something ... F1, Next 'Ette, BIP, etc.

Lauren - she seems boring to me and their conversations are so B-A-S-I-C but he clearly digs her and she is getting a bit jealous so she likes him back. If she is F1, PERFECT cause that would put her out of running for other franchise shows.

BECCA - I think they have good chemistry and the fact that he pulled her into his room is very good sign. Reminds me of when Emily did same to him BUT he ended up F2. Ooops. She has franchise staying power.

TIA - She is a much better version, IMO, than her buddy Raven. She is prettier, better educated and more mature. She tops my list for Bachelorette.

And others ...

SIENNE - i still like her but think she is way too good for this franchise and Arie so I hope she parlays this appearance to something else.

JAQUELINE - I just LOVE her hair! So gorgeous. I don't know if she has a future on franchise but doubt she has one with Arie.

Baby BEKS - Still think she is adorable ... will make loads selling crap on Instagram!

I meant to add ... I would LOVE, as agent suggests, for Arie to pull a Charlie and do a wait-and-see with his final 2. It would make for a more interesting ATFR, for sure. Other than that ... I am finding that I don't care who he picks. Still think he is just a bit bland and I am not seeing any clear/obvious F1 as I have in the past, which is never a good thing. I can't recall who suggested upthread but he does come off a bit like Dr. Travis Stork. Didn't care who he picked either. That said, and this may be contradiction, but I do believe Arie when he says that he wants to settle down.

I am more excited about the smart women on his season. He's got some great Bachelorette candidates and i nearly always like that show better.

^Great to hear from you @MVMom39forever!

I agree...there are some great candidates for the next Bachelorette! Bring it on.

So glad you're back, @MVMom39forever, and on the mend! Solid points about each of the relationships and the potential Bachettes.

If you had to call F1 today, who would you say? That question goes to everyone @Sprite @agentcurls @grace8136 @Cari  @MVMom39forever

veg_out wrote:So glad you're back, @MVMom39forever, and on the mend! Solid points about each of the relationships and the potential Bachettes.

If you had to call F1 today, who would you say? That question goes to everyone @Sprite @agentcurls @grace8136 @Cari  @MVMom39forever

I think either Becca or Lauren. The only reason why I give Becca the edge is she was early front runner from date 1 on and he mentioned her (and Tia and Kendall) in first blog but no mention for Lauren, which seems odd for a lead to not mention f1.

I think Lauren has similar look to Emily and he seems to dig her  though their conversations are so dull imo. Her 21 questions...favorite color? How you eat eggs? ...very superficial but maybe we missed more. And, maybe that is about all he wants...pretty little blonde. What is her job?

I think Kendall, Tia and Sienne are great but more than he can handle ... everyone else, don't think they are keepers

Btw. I am not paying attention to screen caps. I also think the three I mentioned as too much for Arie, plus Baby Beks, are franchise favorites so TPTB might influence him to pick Lauren or Becca who do not have that same screen charm & charisma for Future shows. All Just my opinion and no insult intended.

Good thoughts, good thoughts, @MVMom39forever!

Episode 5 is usually the time that both the F1 and the F2 emerge. If the F1 has been hidden, all of a sudden they are on the scene (SeanCat/Des&Chris) and/or the steady progression of their relationship is in plain view. Around this time, most people could understand the reason that Ben was going to pick Lauren...until TPTB started mounting a case for JoJo. She started to be the narrator and his confidant and they made forward progress every episode, leading to massive confusion for him. So is Lauren's emerging on the scene TPTB positioning her as the F2/F3 or is it that they have to make a case for her as the F1 starting immediately?

Also, who's the narrator (I think it's largely Becca with Bekah as the runner-up)? Who seems to have a really solid, forward-progressing bond with Arie? Who's come out of nowhere?

If something weird did happen this season, those precedents and the normal questions might not matter. Episode 5 felt like some kind of weird departure from things as usual, almost like the first four episodes didn't happen, IMO. Arie's attention turned away from his original frontrunners onto other girls who were background players largely. Sure, I can explain it by saying that he learned info about those girls that changed his mind, but why did the show not highlight from the start these women who came into focus this episode? Especially if one of them is Arie's love story? The only ones who we've known from the beginning are the Bec(k)ca(h)s.

entcurls wrote:

Sprite wrote:@agentcurls Thanks for pointing that out. So more talk of picking someone who wasn't right starting with the season preview. I had forgotten. The fact that it was included there and we have noticed it being repeated so much throughout the season so far, has to mean something.

Does he regret sending someone home? Does he do a Mesnick? No wonder I think something funky is going on with this season, although to be honest, I don't see what difference it makes who he picks since to me he doesn't seem into any of them. Maybe he is really good at hiding his emotions? More likely his face is frozen from botox. It has looked plastic and shiny all season.

I have to disagree with you about baby Becs. I don't think she has an F1 edit at all....although I would be hard pressed to point out who actually does. While doubt and conflict about resolving some issue is usually associated with F1, she is being shown in all the conflict/drama with Krystal which isn't typical of the F1 edit. If it had only been once, I might have been able to let is pass, but she has been repeatedly involved in confronting Krystal, so not typical F1 edit IMO.

That's a good point, @Sprite. So if baby Beks is not F1,  then that leaves Lauren and Kendall in the F4 at least, but not sure about the other two. Possibly Becca since they seem to have an easygoing relationship- but that's part of the problem with Becca as an F1- there is no conflict thus far but, maybe that will change. Does Bekah get a HTD I wonder? Then Kendall at this point can't be F1 based on the jokey-edit, plus 2:1 date. Lauren's edit is really confusing because we see her moving forward with Arie, but then the foreboding "I'm scared I'll fall for you and then you pick someone else." Currently, Arie seems most romantically into Lauren (whom he seems to be seeking out-plus affectionate gestures other than bandit-y style kisses) and Bekah, however he is starting to hold back with her.

Do you think it's possible he tries a "wait & see" - much like Charlie O'Connell? Or there is some kind of change of heart ATFR.  Maybe a break-up. I don't think after all of this talk of regretting his choice, and fearful of choosing the wrong person, hopes he doesn't regret it, etc. amounts to a default choice because everyone will say it's a default choice after all that conjecture, right?

I am going to apologize in advance since this is a long one but I just want to show you my reasoning.

I'll start by answering the bolded. I don't think so. I just don't think tptb would let that happen anymore. See what happened with JPab when he refused to do their bidding. JPab could have cared less ... which I give him major props for. I don't see Arie having the same balls.

A change of heart at some point seems like more of a possibility IMO. Maybe they have already broken up? Maybe he does a Mesnick at the AFTR? There has to be a reason for all this doubt about picking the right person. If he is so conflicted, then I agree there isn't really a default. A default would only happen like in Deanna's season when the one she wanted, wanted to leave. Maybe that is why he is in so much angst? Maybe his pick dumps him and then he has to regroup and try to make it with who is left....like Des? Although, based on what I have seen so far, I find it hard to believe he is that emotionally invested in anyone.

Maybe we were on the right track when we speculated about a slow burn? Initially, I thought Chelsea, baby Becs and Krystal were the ones who got his loins going. Let's face it, that is why most of these guys pick who they pick. Doesn't matter about who was wife material since I don't think he is really looking for a wife, but he probably figured if they were hot and reasonably appropriate to front as his potential wife for a while until a convenient break up then that is who he was going to pick. Currently, he seems to be losing interest in all of those, so now he has to go for the second tier picks?

I really don't see him that romantically into Lauren or anyone for that matter. That said I agree that from what we have seen thus far, and who is left this is how I would position them.

Sienne...too good for him, intimidated by her, no chemistry, missing in action since her date = MOT

Jenna...missing in action pretty much the whole season thus far = MOT

Jacqueline...another one MIA. I think she gets a date next week, but based on preview I think she goes = MOT 

Chelsea...the mystery is gone, easy to excuse letting her go before HTD b/c she sacrificed so much, missing her son = I think out just before HTDs

Krystal...crazy, too high maintenance even if she is hot. Her type is a dime a dozen, I think she is done on the 2:1 which I believe is next week in Paris.

Tia...cute, easy going, no chemistry, but since his original top contenders seem to be going down the toilet, easy to keep around for F4. Since zero chemistry, I don't see him keeping her for FDs = F4. The only reason that would change is if tptb wanted her for the next Bette. She is the usual, cute, girl next door type they pick and since they didn't have Raven as the lead last year because of the "ground breaking" season with Rachel, tptb would make him bring her further to F3. (I could say broken hearted F2, but Lauren has those lines so I stick with the traditional F3.) See so confusing because of the possibilities.

Kendall...weird girl, involved in Krystal drama, comic relief with her taxidermy and again maybe because his original choices are tanking makes if to F4 by default. Because she is hotter than Tia = F3

Lauren...makes if farther than originally thought for the same reason as Tia and Kendall. All of a sudden we are seeing more of her and she has had some prophetic quotes regarding being heartbroken/choosing wrong person. Also being shown kind of shallow with her stupid questions....what is your favourite colour, etc so for that reason = F2

Baby Becca...original top F4 IMO, but her age did her in. I don't think he will take her to HTDs for a couple of reasons. Once Krystal is gone, her involvement in the drama disappears and I think Arie will think it would be bad for his image....since he is soooooo looking for a wife not a girlfriend...to take someone that young to HTDs. Can you imagine the questions he would get from her family? Besides, once the inevitable break up happens, he could always call her or just go to the nearest campus to pick up another, younger version.

Becca...early date, easy going relationship, chemistry since he picked her to go to his hotel room, seen, but not too much focus on her. Not sure is she was in his original top 4, but might have been because of the early date. Stellar edit thus far. Staying out of the drama, but I really don't know much about her. Pretty boring like him. Other than the MOT women, has the cleanest edit. Since she is the only one left by process of elimination = F1

Now I am torn here. I actually don't really see anyone so far as the F1. The only reason I have Becca in that spot is because for various reasons, I have pretty much eliminated everyone else. Usually the squeaky clean edit signals the next Bette and I could easily see her picked, although she seems pretty bland to me and I would prefer Tia.  I could just as easily interchange Becca with Lauren in the F1 position, but Lauren has had all those prophetic quotes about being broken hearted so I am thinking she is...hence F2. Now maybe they are messing with us and it is just Lauren being worried about that and he does pick her and everyone lives happily ever after...for at least a few months of sex and shilling...or I am right about the clean edit and Becca is the Bette. In which case, I would go for Lauren as F1 and Becca could be F3 or broken hearted F2, with Kendall being moved around as the situation demanded.

So many possibilities. I might have to revise everything as the season progresses because of all the harping on picking the wrong choice. I can't quite get my head around what that would mean to my predictions. Who would be the wrong one? Becca? Krystal?....I have it wrong and somehow she bamboozles him into keeping her? Although that seem rather far fetched because he seems so over her. Chelsea because picking the mom would show that he really wants a wife and family? My head is spinning.

Arie will probably eliminate the MOT women next, so once he starts picking off who is left I might be able to more clearly figure out what is going on. Maybe I am right and he really isn't into anyone and has more balls than I give him credit for and does a Brad1 and picks nobody? That would actually fit my prediction pretty well. Becca could be F1 and still have the Bette edit. Reboot of Deanna's season, but there is that nagging about picking the wrong someone and I just don't see him being strong like Brad or tptb letting him, so I do think he picks someone...the wrong one...which sounds more like a Mesnick. In which case he dumps his original pick and goes back to ask someone he dumped to date post show. Most likely baby Becca. That way he doesn't have to propose and skips the awkward family questions...at least on camera. Maybe he really does like her the most and this gives them time to date IRL and figure out what they both want? I could buy this if I actually believed him to be sincere....but I don't. So I just need to stop over thinking...and writing...because I could come up with tons of different scenarios. I just need to wait for some more to be eliminated.

So sorry for the long post. I don't think I have ever written anything this long before.

^@Sprite, epic post! I can understand the various permutations of this season that you see now that you've laid it out nicely. At this point, anything can happen, and they've at least succeeding in luring us into the confusion.

It seems like most of us are in some agreement that the F5 in order of elimination are likely
Bekah
Tia
Kendall
Lauren
Becca

If I had to throw my hat in the ring on the ending, I'd suggest that something weird starts happening around the F5 elimination and then it ricochets through the rest of the season. If he lets Bekah go then and she's the one he's closest to but no one else yet has reached the same level of intimacy with him, then it might cause aftershocks. Add to that the returning boyfriend, and I think Arie ends up rather confused from F3-to-F1 decision. The show will likely throw scenarios at him that will force him to define what he wants.

I'm with you that, of all the scenarios, he will most likely end up pulling a Mesnick of some sort: Mesnick indicated that life after the Bachelor showed Melissa and him quickly that they were incompatible. Arie keeps saying that he's focused on life after the show. Perhaps he did pick someone and then realized swiftly that it wouldn't work: either he switches to another or he is alone.

@veg_out I totally forgot about the boyfriend! I don't even know how that plays into everything. Do we know for sure when he appears? 

I agree the Mesnick appears to me to be the most likely scenario based on the picking the wrong person quotes hammering us over the head. We know tptb sometime hint at how they think the relationship will go post show so maybe it is because they don't see it lasting or think he picked wrong? Could they be on the outs like Brad and Emily were? or are they already caput and they expect him to ask someone he dumped to try dating on the AFTR?

So many possibilities. Maybe I am overthinking things because I am home sick with nothing better to do, but I am actually finding this season very confusing. I can usually tell who they are into and this season I don't really see it with anyone. The closest would be baby Becca, but the age thing doesn't really make him look good.

Sprite wrote:@veg_out I totally forgot about the boyfriend! I don't even know how that plays into everything. Do we know for sure when he appears? 

I think that AC and grace were working on proving that the boyfriend ends up interfering in Peru, which is where the FSDs and FRC take place per screencaps.

I'm with you--confusing season!

Feel better!