BACHELOR 22 - Arie Luyendyk Jr General Discussion - **NO SPOILERS** - *SLEUTHING* DISCUSSION

agentcurls wrote:

grace8136 wrote:

agentcurls wrote:
*sniped*

Where my head is:

F1 - Bekah -OR- a slow-burn that emerges in Europe (Lauren, Kendall, Seinne, Jacqueline) Something tells me that the ex arrival during FRC time is an ex of one of these, in which case it will ruffle some feathers, but Arie will get the girl in the end, whether ex is coming for Arie's intended F1 or F2
I will have to see more of Arie with Chelsea, Becca, & Tia to see if they have a chance to overtake Bekah
F2- Chelsea or one of the slow-burn candidates
F3 - Becca or "
F4 - Tia or "

Thinking about the bolded... What if Arie doesn't get the girl, the boyfriend does? I think there's a fairly good chance that a long term boyfriend trumps a polygamous TV boyfriend. Would TPTB show us that trainwreck of a finale or pretend the F2 is his F1? They passed that test with Des, but it didn't happen during the FRC. And even though Des is arguably one of their biggest success stories, they rarely acknowledge her happy life, baby, marriage. I think that's bc the casual viewer doesn't keep up, Chris is forever her second choice to Brooks for the majority of their viewers.. Not fair, but I think true. So would they be truthful if it happened again and by that I mean do they make more money off a trainwreck or a make believe, temporary fairytale?

Really good question and observations!
They just might pretend F2 is F1.
I think what may be more plausible is that the ex comes back for an F3 or F2 because if not, that would be one heck of a trainwreck that even this franchise has never seen.
We see Arie shedding some possible tears and contemplating, but the lead always does that before the happy ending. We don't know when the ex came back (in Cusco, Peru I believe), but maybe this happened with one of the F3?

Probably, but that's why I want to find the location/gate.. to get the odds 1:3 or 1:2 chance that the boyfriend is there for the intended F1. I'll keep looking. I didn't expect that to really be happening in Peru. I'm so used to them tricking us on the timing, I didn't even look at it very closely at first.

Based on screencaps, are we thinking the following?

F3
Kendall
Lauren B.
Tia

The posts indicate that the "returning ex" is likely Tia's.

Hmm.

If I had to hazard a guess, I suspect that the angsty part of the preview that indicates a FRC interloper might be editing and not reality. Here's the reason: The show rotates on the axis of a proposal so much so that it's now written into contracts. We saw Rachel agonize over her final choice because she needed certainty that the F1 would propose. We saw the way the show treated JPG when he went off script and ended the season with barely an "I love you" let alone a proposal. I'd even throw Nick/Vanessa into the mix since Nick seemed checked out by end of season. IMO and in agreement with AC and grace, I think that the FRC and "a happy ending" are far too important to the franchise than an imperfect conclusion even if the "happy ending" is really a three-month farce.

Other thought:
From the Bekah 1:1, I did get a sense that Arie really is in this experiment to find a long-term love, if not a wife. He is very aware of his age and sounds like he wants to start a family soon. Maybe he's saying the lines and reading the cue cards, but something indicates a level of sincerity to him about wanting a serious relationship. If not, I don't think that Beks' age would have affected him the way it did. So, I think we're looking at a proposal, unless this season really goes off the rails, and TPTB embrace a catastrophe as the FRC because the real love story got away...

I think Tia gets cut before HTD or right after, imo. We have a SC at night of her crying and Arie consoling her. She says under her breath "I'm ready to go" (although it's her voice, her hand is covering her mouth) and then we have a cap of Arie crying at night. It could be from when he lets Tia go. I can't be for certain because I can't match up Arie's clothes in the two SCs.
TP could've brought the ex into the scene if they felt it was getting wobbly towards the end...to maybe add a sense of urgency and bring out Arie's protective alpha-male.

I think we have Kendall, Lauren, and either Becca or Bekah as F3.

And the ex could actually be Lauren's (she's from VA, but lives in Dallas)

According to edit, I don't think Lauren is F1, I think the ex shows up in Peru possibly, but I do NOT think he shows up during FRC day. Arie says (in VO!) "It's just kind of blowing my mind that he is here. It's upsetting. Right now, I am angry... I'm angry that he is here." This is over footage of FRC day (Arie with blue suit contemplating), but it likely occurred well before FRC day. Then says ITM "I have had my heart ripped opened (probably when he sends F2 home).

I'd like to think he is taking this process seriously. It's hard to tell at the moment. It depends on how he proceeds. I see him being vulnerable and letting his guard down with a few girls, mostly Bekah but also Kendall has brought out the goody and loose side of him.

Hmm, so do we think that Tia is cut pre-HTDs per screencaps?

F5
Tia
Kendall
Lauren B.
Bekah
Becca (she's the narrator, it seems)

F4
Kendall
Lauren B.
Bekah
Becca

F3
Kendall
Lauren B.
one of the Beks


If so, I'd say that Bekah must be cut before FSDs then. It would make sense in that her story arc could resolve soon.

Who's story is just starting to build? That's often the F2. The F1 usually, unless it's a Vienna/Courtney season, has a relatively easy time with the lead until somewhere in episode 6 or 7 when they introduce a problem to throw them off track: think Lauren and Ben, JP and Ashley.

It seems like, aside from Beks, Arie hasn't really zeroed in on anyone yet. If he lets her go, then the show needs to start building a believable alternate, like they did with Chris S. (though it was there all along with those two) or even Bryan. The show does steer the lead towards the person who might make a better match longterm, or should I say, away from the person that they want as the next lead--ha ha ha!

veg_out wrote:Hmm, so do we think that Tia is cut pre-HTDs per screencaps?

F5
Tia
Kendall
Lauren B.
Bekah
Becca (she's the narrator, it seems)

F4
Kendall
Lauren B.
Bekah
Becca

F3
Kendall
Lauren B.
one of the Beks


If so, I'd say that Bekah must be cut before FSDs then. It would make sense in that her story arc could resolve soon.

Who's story is just starting to build? That's often the F2. The F1 usually, unless it's a Vienna/Courtney season, has a relatively easy time with the lead until somewhere in episode 6 or 7 when they introduce a problem to throw them off track: think Lauren and Ben, JP and Ashley.

It seems like, aside from Beks, Arie hasn't really zeroed in on anyone yet. If he lets her go, then the show needs to start building a believable alternate, like they did with Chris S. (though it was there all along with those two) or even Bryan. The show does steer the lead towards the person who might make a better match longterm, or should I say, away from the person that they want as the next lead--ha ha ha!

Bekah is the only one with a "conflict" to be resolved with Arie so far and so when will that be resolved? Maybe not until the end or maybe before/after HTD.

Chelsea could have one with her being a mother.

I can see Lauren having trouble opening up and being vulnerable with Arie. There has been foreshadowing of this already during the ep. 3 GD. Ep. 4 she gave Arie a little more and he was pleased about that. She's also been shy about trying new things (wrestling date, Tahoe wilderness as she wanted no part of bug-eating, and this after Arie's love of outdoors, adventure, & trying new things with good humor has been really emphasized. Perhaps this is why he brings her to Macchu Piccu possibly-to broaden her horizons?)

I don't see a conflict with Kendall yet other than how Arie has picked up on her nervous energy. Maybe she will have trouble relaxing and being vulnerable in future eps. We will have to watch.

I don't see any conflict or intrigue for that matter with Becca so far.

On Becca's 1:1 -
Arie "Out of everyone, I felt like you embodied how I was when I went on the last time. If you any questions about my experience, just ask. It was pretty magical for me, even though it didn't work out."
Becca "But it lead you to here."
Arie "Yeah, exactly"

I find this conversation odd. Is this foreshadowing for Becca becoming the next Bachelorette?

Also, in ep.3 preview, we have a VO of Lauren, (not 100% certain) saying " I feel like I am the only woman in the world to him" over footage of her and Arie kissing in ep. 3, but probably recorded much later.

agentcurls wrote:On Becca's 1:1 -
Arie "Out of everyone, I felt like you embodied how I was when I went on the last time. If you any questions about my experience, just ask.  It was pretty magical for me, even though it didn't work out."
Becca "But it lead you to here."
Arie "Yeah, exactly"

I find this conversation odd. Is this foreshadowing for Becca becoming the next Bachelorette?

Good point, AC. Are we really getting to know Bekah as a solo entity (Bette)? Or them as unit (F1)?

Something learned from Ben's season and backed up by something old-time sleuthers used to emphasize: TPTB often comment on their perception of the final couple via the season's edit. They show us the things that might divide them: Josh and Andi--their tempers and fights; Nick and Vanessa--their arguments and power struggle; Ben and Lauren--his indecisiveness, fear, and dependency; Emily and Brad--her hesitancy and his temper; Ali and Roberto--her feelings for Frank and penchant for drama and his reticence to share his emotions. Equally, for JP and Ashley, they kept showing us that they were magic in a bottle. Even with Des & Chris, Chris, though shown as quirky, also was presented as steadfast and her port in the storm.

Sometimes, too, they edit the season to showcase the couple that they thought should be together, esp. if post-season the final couple is struggling. I swear it seems like the show is dying for another Mesnick to happen, IMO.

If we watch Bekah and Arie's time together to date, we'll find the hints that we need just as we did with JoJo. What are they emphasizing when the two of them are together? To me, it's seemed like they focus us on them being "doomed to fail" while also being each other's confidant. Arie can't let her go (his words, not mine). Yet. In light of the age differential, will he shift gears and focus onto someone else? We'll need to watch to see if he starts forging ahead with another relationship, IMO. At this point, ArKah is the most interesting couple on the season for me, whether she's the F1 or the next Bette.

Honestly, she'd be fantastic as the Bette!

^i think she would make quite the dynamic Bachelorette!!, but I think it's Becca's or maybe Kendall's to lose if they aren't F1. I don't think they would go with Seinne after we just had Rachel. Then there's Tia, and for all I know she is a fan favorite but since I'm staying off SM, I have no idea. Chelsea is a possibility if they build up audience sympathy for her.
As of now, I think Arie is into Bekah the most. Look forward to seeing what happens next.

grace8136 wrote:

agentcurls wrote:

grace8136 wrote:

Thinking about the bolded... What if Arie doesn't get the girl, the boyfriend does? I think there's a fairly good chance that a long term boyfriend trumps a polygamous TV boyfriend. Would TPTB show us that trainwreck of a finale or pretend the F2 is his F1? They passed that test with Des, but it didn't happen during the FRC. And even though Des is arguably one of their biggest success stories, they rarely acknowledge her happy life, baby, marriage. I think that's bc the casual viewer doesn't keep up, Chris is forever her second choice to Brooks for the majority of their viewers.. Not fair, but I think true. So would they be truthful if it happened again and by that I mean do they make more money off a trainwreck or a make believe, temporary fairytale?

Really good question and observations!
They just might pretend F2 is F1.
I think what may be more plausible is that the ex comes back for an F3 or F2 because if not, that would be one heck of a trainwreck that even this franchise has never seen.
We see Arie shedding some possible tears and contemplating, but the lead always does that before the happy ending. We don't know when the ex came back (in Cusco, Peru I believe), but maybe this happened with one of the F3?

Probably, but that's why I want to find the location/gate.. to get the odds 1:3 or 1:2 chance that the boyfriend is there for the intended F1. I'll keep looking. I didn't expect that to really be happening in Peru. I'm so used to them tricking us on the timing, I didn't even look at it very closely at first.

I see @grace8136, sorry I was dense on this. I didn't put it together that FDs and LCDs were seperate and also 500 miles apart!
Yikes, so if the ex does show up in Cusco and possibly for Lauren, then her edit won't be that surprising,  The only other contestants that the ex would be coming back for are Tia or possibly Jacqueline ( West Virginia) but I don't currently see them in F3-2?
If TP are worried about Arie's HEA, I could see them sending the ex out to add a sense of urgency to the situation and to bring out the alpha-male in Arie. It would be better to locate the ex at another location other than Cusco but so far I am coming up empty.
I hope this ex is not going to sabotage Arie's HEA. Something tells me it will make him awfully mad ITM but that he will bounce back quickly.

@agentcurls The only who will sabotage Arie's happiness is Arie. Somehow, I don't see him finding it on this show.

more edit stuff:

While Beks & Arie are on their 1:1, a conversation was in the edit between Jacqueline & Kendall talking about baby Beks' age.
Jaq says "I wasn't ready for marriage at her age. I see a lot of myself in Bekah, in that I'm a experience junkie, but I feel like I got all that experience while I was single."
Kendall "I can't help but think it could be a factor."

Also, during Kendall's intro video, "I've never had a relationship over a year...but with taxidermy, I can keep it forever."
Well, she just might be stuck with her taxidermy, or maybe Arie can break her out of this?? I can see this being an obstacle...why hasn't she had success with relationships? This could be a turn-off for Arie. We'll see.