BACHELOR 22 - Arie Luyendyk Jr General Discussion - **NO SPOILERS** - *SLEUTHING* DISCUSSION

No problem, Sprite. I guess we see it differently re. Sean. We'll see what comes of Arie!

@Aunties_Love, thanks for the stats--helpful!

veg_out wrote:No problem, Sprite. I guess we see it differently re. Sean. We'll see what comes of Arie!

@Aunties_Love, thanks for the stats--helpful!

Yes, thank you @Aunties_Love for clarifying!

Another theme from the M&G was how fierce the competition was, how many beautiful & smart women were there (several contestants mentioned) and maybe that's the case with most M&Gs? It seemed like time was really running out there at the end when the FIR went down. It seems maybe Arie really took some time with ladies that first night who sought him out.

Arie has said that he leads with chemistry. Maybe it takes a while for him for the emotional side to catch up? Contrast that with Ben Higgy, who latched on emotionally to the first girl who gave him googly eyes and that didn't work out too well for him. Don't let me down, Arie with a fake season/default pick! I hope it's just taking him longer to open himself up emotionally. Although, I've seen him being vulnerable already with baby Beks.

Re: M&G

Becca had a few ITMs, but they didn't really tell a story. I felt like the edit night one told a story for Chelsea, Bekah, & Kendall. So those could be our F3? Or if Becca is in the mix, they are withholding her more significant edit for later.

Another interesting thing Chelsea said was "Going first, I don't know if it was the best move. Um, I don't want him to necessarily forget me." Chelsea then talks to Arie a second time, then cut to Bekah's ITM "Chelsea seems like the type to want to stir the pot. And I don't think that's really what he's looking for."

So it's Chelsea vs. Bekah
Chelsea vs. Krystal
Krystal vs. Bekah

Who stays above the drama & have gotten great edits? Becca & Kendall. If things don't pan out with an intended F1 (Bekah), could they default picks? Bachelorette considerations, although Kendall had an intro vid, Becca did not? Maybe slow-burn F1 potential, will have to see more.

I think Chelsea's FIR doomed her for F1, as a FIR hasn't been given to Bachelor F1 in more than 12 seasons at least!

I'm keeping my eye on Kendall to see where she might be at the end.
ep. 2
"All of us are wondering who Arie made a connection with...who caught his eye?"
Annaleise " I think I'll be ok until that date card shows up, and it's like"this is real""  camera pan to Kendall "Yeah"
Chris Harrison "I hope just one of you will go on to become Arie's wife (barf!)" camera pan to Kendall.

During ep. 2 GD, Kendall says " Even though someone like Chelsea comes & steals  Arie away..." then gets interrupted as Chelsea returns from SQT. Marikh putting it out there that just because Chelsea is a mom doesn't mean she gave up more than the others to be there. Chelsea's air of mystery is diminishing.

"Alot of us had different kinds of time with him (pan to Chelsea) and were all coming in at different levels." -Kendall
There were also camera reactions between Chelsea & Bekah, as well Chelsea & anyone who was making connections with Arie (F2 edit?)

ep. 3 when GD card was read aloud, the last name read "Becca" camera pan to Kendall (left out of any date ep. 3)

F4- no order
Chelsea, Bekah, Becca, Kendall
I'm definitely leaning towards Bekah as a possible real F1 and if that doesn't pan out, Becca as second choice
I don't think Chelsea could be F1 and I think Kendall's edit has been strange and also the goofy (though endearing) taxidermy thing so unsure of her chances as F1

wildcards-
Lauren, Jaq, Tia (that darn ex with the southern drawl!)
Seinne

Re: the Bachelor walking into the main room at the mansion to greet the ladies that have just arrived by limo- the girl on the far right handing the lead a cocktail...is that "position" reserved for a potential F1? Lauren B was in that position last season, and this time it was Chelsea. I don't recall the pattern in other seasons...

Another interesting conversation left in edit night one:
Becca "Who do we think is getting the FIR?"
Chelsea "I have no idea."
Others "Maybe Brittanie"
Kendall "A kiss goes a long way"
Chelsea "It does. It's very telling."

When Becca returned with all the designer swag, Bibiana "Oh my god, they're going to get married." Tia "Yep"

GD ep. 4 ITM - Kendall "This is a date where I can stand out. Other dates that have to do with shopping, maybe that's the other kind of date that other girls will stand out in, but this is where I shine."

Let me preface this post with a note that I didn't watch the other three episodes, just the pre-season show.

From my standpoint, they need to start to lay down the top 4 so that it makes sense. After this episode and based on the screencaps sleuthing by gracie and AC, I think his top 4 are Bekah, Becca, Kendall, and Lauren B.

Something about Tia: Their 1:1 time during the group date felt very produced (she kept looking to the side as if at producers). She may have wanted to go home and the boyfriend was recruited as the exit strategy.

Bekah and Arie have a very easy chemistry. I'll keep an eye on that one.

So, we also have a conflict. Since Brad 2.0's season, I noticed that the lead and his eventual F1 resolve each other's conflicts.

I'll have to go back and pay attention to Arie's commentary to figure out his conflict, but we have Bekah's now: Am I mature enough to enter into a serious relationship?

This episode burst both of their bubbles a bit. What comes next could be really interesting. Arie's guard is up now (you could see the shift) and Bekah could actually lose some of her confidence, worrying if he will cut her. At the same time, there is a significant, significant emotional bond between them; she is, like Joelle for Ben, his go-to person, the one that he confides in.

His VO about her before he found out her age: "She's so amazing. She's unlike anyone I've ever met. She has the personality. She has that strong, independent sexiness to her. She's so mature and outgoing and..." [cont'd below in PI]

speaking about Bekah in his clothes for the date: [there's so many things that I look for in somebody that she has.]

He continues, "Do our lives really match up? Are we in the same place?"

I suspect that this question will carry through the season until Arie answers it. If it's prior to the end of the season, then Bekah's not his F1. If she's in the F2 and it's "yes," then she's his F1 since that description he used to describe Beks is what he says he wants. If it's "no," it's because someone else takes over with a sneak attack. We just have to figure out who that sneaker could be.

^sounds spot on, VO! You are laying it down as always!

agentcurls wrote:
*sniped*

Where my head is:

F1 - Bekah -OR- a slow-burn that emerges in Europe (Lauren, Kendall, Seinne, Jacqueline) Something tells me that the ex arrival during FRC time is an ex of one of these, in which case it will ruffle some feathers, but Arie will get the girl in the end, whether ex is coming for Arie's intended F1 or F2
I will have to see more of Arie with Chelsea, Becca, & Tia to see if they have a chance to overtake Bekah
F2- Chelsea or one of the slow-burn candidates
F3 - Becca or "
F4 - Tia or "

Thinking about the bolded... What if Arie doesn't get the girl, the boyfriend does? I think there's a fairly good chance that a long term boyfriend trumps a polygamous TV boyfriend. Would TPTB show us that trainwreck of a finale or pretend the F2 is his F1? They passed that test with Des, but it didn't happen during the FRC. And even though Des is arguably one of their biggest success stories, they rarely acknowledge her happy life, baby, marriage. I think that's bc the casual viewer doesn't keep up, Chris is forever her second choice to Brooks for the majority of their viewers.. Not fair, but I think true. So would they be truthful if it happened again and by that I mean do they make more money off a trainwreck or a make believe, temporary fairytale?

grace8136 wrote:

agentcurls wrote:
*sniped*

Where my head is:

F1 - Bekah -OR- a slow-burn that emerges in Europe (Lauren, Kendall, Seinne, Jacqueline) Something tells me that the ex arrival during FRC time is an ex of one of these, in which case it will ruffle some feathers, but Arie will get the girl in the end, whether ex is coming for Arie's intended F1 or F2
I will have to see more of Arie with Chelsea, Becca, & Tia to see if they have a chance to overtake Bekah
F2- Chelsea or one of the slow-burn candidates
F3 - Becca or "
F4 - Tia or "

Thinking about the bolded... What if Arie doesn't get the girl, the boyfriend does? I think there's a fairly good chance that a long term boyfriend trumps a polygamous TV boyfriend. Would TPTB show us that trainwreck of a finale or pretend the F2 is his F1? They passed that test with Des, but it didn't happen during the FRC. And even though Des is arguably one of their biggest success stories, they rarely acknowledge her happy life, baby, marriage. I think that's bc the casual viewer doesn't keep up, Chris is forever her second choice to Brooks for the majority of their viewers.. Not fair, but I think true. So would they be truthful if it happened again and by that I mean do they make more money off a trainwreck or a make believe, temporary fairytale?

Really good question and observations!
They just might pretend F2 is F1.
I think what may be more plausible is that the ex comes back for an F3 or F2 because if not, that would be one heck of a trainwreck that even this franchise has never seen.
We see Arie shedding some possible tears and contemplating, but the lead always does that before the happy ending. We don't know when the ex came back (in Cusco, Peru I believe), but maybe this happened with one of the F3?