The Bachelor 17 - Speculation/Spoilers - Discussion

ninu wrote:

Mr Write wrote:I apologize in advance. This is a little long-winded.

I worked on modelling the bachelorette contestants again last night, but I'm still missing some critical biographical information - particularly for Lindsay. There are several aspects to the model, but the most significant are the historic probabilities of a contestant with certain characteristics surviving each week and then also the profiles for F1 based in part on the characteristics of the bachelor. Perhaps not surprisingly, the characteristics of the bachelor are as important as the characteristics of the contestants. Anyway ... ignoring all the recent scs and sleuthing, the model still shows Daniella, Tierra, Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie as the most likely F1s for Sean. I did, however, make one mistake when I originally ran the model. That is, I coded Lesley M.'s occupation incorrectly. I use the Bureau of Labor Statistics SOC and coded Lesley as a political worker rather than a public relations specialist which is where she should be. That change makes her statistically much more likely to be F1. Other contestants being discussed - Ashlee, Sarah, Lauren and Selma - do not appear to be strong candidates for F1. Naturally there are several other variables beyond occupation.

So what happens if we add sc and sleuthing information. Obviously, we remove Daniella, Lacey and Jackie, leaving Tierra and Lesley as the most likely candidates to be F1. So ... if I was betting in Vegas right now I would put money on both, with just a little more on Lesley since Tierra was so publicly visible in St Croix. As soon as I figure out Lindsay's occupation, I'll see how she does. If she's a teacher, I'll be back with something to say. I stopped adding new data to the model a couple of seasons ago, but historically, 65% of teachers have survived the first RC, and 15% have made it to F2 and 10% have been F1. In other words, teachers are historically a strong occupational group.

Usually, as the season progresses the model is fairly good and predicting what will happen, but that is only after more information is put into it, by which time the super sleuthers and spoilers already have figured out the winner. Incidentally, I stopped really using this after Mesnick (it can't compete with RS), but I checked again its predictive capacity and it still does well for all seasons of the bachelor except one. BTW modelling the bachelorette is completely different and unfortunately viewer popularity doesn't appear to play much of a role either.

For curiosity's sake - which one? :)

luvstx wrote:Not sure which thread to put this in but thought I'd add this from my friend who stayed at the Buccaneer on St. Croix during the week of filming. When he refers to the Mermaid, it's the beachside restaurant at the resort and the Terrace is the main dining room.

Just thought it would add to our knowledge of what happens at the places where the crew stayed.

And I have asked him to clarify his remarks about Tierra being "arrogant"


"Anyway the Buc went all out to cater to the crew. They kept the Mermaid open late and had bands there every night. They shut down the Terrace restaurant 2 or 3 nights and set up buffet dinners for the crew only. The crew and the cast were mostly young and they partied a lot. The were noisy and quite a few were arrogant, especially the one bachelorette, the one you'll see in the parade scene. Anyway I heard that the tab for the cast and crew( see below) was picked up by the V.I. tourism Dep't and The Buc..everyone expects that it will give a huge boost to STX and our favorite resort. Expect bookings to skyrocket to The Buc and the island itself. I guess this sort of thing happens wherever they do shows like this"

NCGalBecca wrote:Please forgive me if this has already been discussed but does anyone recall the other instances when the early season thrill date participant (scaling the building) didn't make it to the F4? By eyewitness accounts, Sean's date for this adventure date was a blonde.

I'm very curious to see who it was and why things didn't work out. It's one of the few dates that has that "Love in the Wild" bonding and teamwork aspect to it.

luvstx wrote:

NCGalBecca wrote:Please forgive me if this has already been discussed but does anyone recall the other instances when the early season thrill date participant (scaling the building) didn't make it to the F4? By eyewitness accounts, Sean's date for this adventure date was a blonde.

I'm very curious to see who it was and why things didn't work out. It's one of the few dates that has that "Love in the Wild" bonding and teamwork aspect to it.

Well....let's talk about those adrenaline dates in some recent seasons...good test for the memory!

Emily - was it Chris she scaled the building with?

Ben - Emily walked on the Bay Bridge with him and only made it to F6

Ashley - can't remember the adrenaline date

Brad - o.k. can't remember this one either

Ali - Roberto scaling the building in LA

Jake - Vienna bungee jumping :puke:

luvstx wrote:Good memories, friends! And was it Chris Emily scaled the building with?