The Bachelor 17 - Speculation/Spoilers - Discussion

So far, no Bachelor and F1 has married. Jason came close, by marrying F2 (Molly). I think Sean has a lot of pressure to be the first to marry an F1. But, I think he'll do the right thing, if he's not sure about F1 or F2, he'll walk away, like Brad. He already hooked up with Brook Burke, ette from another season, before #17 filming began. Maybe, he'll get back with her. Or, he won't get engaged to F1 or F2. Maybe, a friendship ring, as has been done in the past. Sean will have so much pressure on him. But, he'll look to his faith, for strength. Have to go. Talk to you later.

I think a friendship ring to see where things ago is a good idea. If he does pick someone they need to get to know eachother so I think Sean should take things slow.

The obvious publicity angle of Lindsay and Tierra's dates have made me quite curious. Both appear to be blatant publicity stunt dates to get tongues wagging about the show and these specific ladies. No matter how much they try to pretend with the "shhh, don't tell" aspects - these were openly "staged" events in all aspects with plenty of press. To the point where I have seen folks complaining on Twitter about being too spoiled already. Meanwhile, we can't hardly get an inkling about any of the other dates. I look forward to seeing if there's a difference in Sean's reactions re: the openly public spectacles vs the more private dates.

It just makes me wonder if these two ladies are red herrings of a sort of the final 4 and the other two most likely candidates (Lesley, Ashlee) are the real frontrunners. Or, are they trying to lay the groundwork for competing fan bases again with Lindsay and Tierra since that worked out rather well for them last time. Kind of like the interviews with Sean, Arie, and Jef - but using a different tactic to get fans invested earlier. It will also be interesting to see if one or both have been pegged as the next possible Bachelorette.

What we saw of those dates (which go on for many hours) is what happened during two or so of those hours- and those were definitely for show. It is impossible to know where those two stand in the whole scheme of things, though.

My point was that the specific ladies selected and these dates are all part of a very well scripted storyboard on behalf of the producers. From the (dismayed) comments of the many of the bystanders, every single action is planned and not left to chance. They did make for some great photos to use. So, I am curious as to why they were chosen for part of the "promotional" aspect - that's all.

From a pre-season popularity/ "likes" perspective on ABC.com and Facebook based on photos and bios (and Wetpaint press), Lindsay is overwhelmingly the favorite of the suspected F4. Tierra has picked up some votes this week but trails significantly. Lindsay's only real competition in current popularity is Jackie and Robyn. It looks like neither of them made F4.

I have a question. Does Sean pick who goes on what date or do the producers pick?

I apologize in advance. This is a little long-winded.

I worked on modelling the bachelorette contestants again last night, but I'm still missing some critical biographical information - particularly for Lindsay. There are several aspects to the model, but the most significant are the historic probabilities of a contestant with certain characteristics surviving each week and then also the profiles for F1 based in part on the characteristics of the bachelor. Perhaps not surprisingly, the characteristics of the bachelor are as important as the characteristics of the contestants. Anyway ... ignoring all the recent scs and sleuthing, the model still shows Daniella, Tierra, Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie as the most likely F1s for Sean. I did, however, make one mistake when I originally ran the model. That is, I coded Lesley M.'s occupation incorrectly. I use the Bureau of Labor Statistics SOC and coded Lesley as a political worker rather than a public relations specialist which is where she should be. That change makes her statistically much more likely to be F1. Other contestants being discussed - Ashlee, Sarah, Lauren and Selma - do not appear to be strong candidates for F1. Naturally there are several other variables beyond occupation.

So what happens if we add sc and sleuthing information. Obviously, we remove Daniella, Lacey and Jackie, leaving Tierra and Lesley as the most likely candidates to be F1. So ... if I was betting in Vegas right now I would put money on both, with just a little more on Lesley since Tierra was so publicly visible in St Croix. As soon as I figure out Lindsay's occupation, I'll see how she does. If she's a teacher, I'll be back with something to say. I stopped adding new data to the model a couple of seasons ago, but historically, 65% of teachers have survived the first RC, and 15% have made it to F2 and 10% have been F1. In other words, teachers are historically a strong occupational group.

Usually, as the season progresses the model is fairly good and predicting what will happen, but that is only after more information is put into it, by which time the super sleuthers and spoilers already have figured out the winner. Incidentally, I stopped really using this after Mesnick (it can't compete with RS), but I checked again its predictive capacity and it still does well for all seasons of the bachelor except one. BTW modelling the bachelorette is completely different and unfortunately viewer popularity doesn't appear to play much of a role either.

ThankMeLater wrote:I have a question. Does Sean pick who goes on what date or do the producers pick?

From what's been said in the past its mostly producer pick, right? I think the lead has say in some of the activities that are dates and may voice opinions on who they'd like, but it has always been my understanding the actual who goes on each date was always more the producers choice than the leads. But. I could be wrong...

Ladybug82 wrote:

ThankMeLater wrote:I have a question. Does Sean pick who goes on what date or do the producers pick?

From what's been said in the past its mostly producer pick, right? I think the lead has say in some of the activities that are dates and may voice opinions on who they'd like, but it has always been my understanding the actual who goes on each date was always more the producers choice than the leads. But. I could be wrong...

Reality Steve insists the lead has no say whatsoever. But that's a mischacterization. The lead has to tell the producers who they are interested in. Once we get past the first three weeks it HAS to be someone he is either interested in or ready to jettison. They have to show the lead with the f4 more than with others so the audience can be drawn into the story. They are not going to send Tierra on a date late in the process unless he's going to dump here pronto. If she survives that week, he has some interest. They can't waste broadcast time one someone destined to be dumped before f5 or so, unless the whole point of the date is to show her being dumped. There are exceptions. I think Courtney was so definitely bens f1 from night 1 that they had to fill the slate. Emily in the Caribbean and brads, where Shawntel also wandered around the islands so she could get dumped pretty quick. In both seasons the leads had their f1's chosen early, so this is not science by any means.

I've become convinced that unless we see someone in the first three weeks getting a 1 on 1, the attraction is not that strong. This format doesn't lend itself to slow growth of relationships--which is why so many don't work out. The attraction has to be quick and it has to be accompanied by commitment and compatibility. That's a lot to ask. Yes I know, Jef and Emily. Sorry, but I'll keep my thoughts to myself on that one keeping with the wishes of San and Love Me. Basically, it happens in the first three weeks, or it doesn't happen. That's my belief.

^^^I agree with the added caveat of the producer plants for dramatic purposes, i.e. a Bentley, Michelle Money, Wes, etc. When there's either an instant attraction pick at the start or the lead/pick are low drama, these folks pick up the story slack.

Due to manipulation and producer direction, it's always a tad hard for me to tell what type of dates would have been chosen and when these type of contestants would have gotten the boot if things had been allowed to play out naturally.

I believe the lead tells the producers who their top 4 picks are after the M & G ends. The formula over the last couple of season hasn't really changed.

I believe the lead has a very good idea about who they want to end up after the first week of filming has taken place. It is possible they might be into 2 contestants, but the attraction to their eventual F1 happens immediately. After their first 1-on-1 date with the F1 that bond becomes even stronger.

The editors are good about making it look like the lead is into several contestants when really they just aren't.

Just my opinion.

Mr Write wrote:I apologize in advance. This is a little long-winded.

I worked on modelling the bachelorette contestants again last night, but I'm still missing some critical biographical information - particularly for Lindsay. There are several aspects to the model, but the most significant are the historic probabilities of a contestant with certain characteristics surviving each week and then also the profiles for F1 based in part on the characteristics of the bachelor. Perhaps not surprisingly, the characteristics of the bachelor are as important as the characteristics of the contestants. Anyway ... ignoring all the recent scs and sleuthing, the model still shows Daniella, Tierra, Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie as the most likely F1s for Sean. I did, however, make one mistake when I originally ran the model. That is, I coded Lesley M.'s occupation incorrectly. I use the Bureau of Labor Statistics SOC and coded Lesley as a political worker rather than a public relations specialist which is where she should be. That change makes her statistically much more likely to be F1. Other contestants being discussed - Ashlee, Sarah, Lauren and Selma - do not appear to be strong candidates for F1. Naturally there are several other variables beyond occupation.

So what happens if we add sc and sleuthing information. Obviously, we remove Daniella, Lacey and Jackie, leaving Tierra and Lesley as the most likely candidates to be F1. So ... if I was betting in Vegas right now I would put money on both, with just a little more on Lesley since Tierra was so publicly visible in St Croix. As soon as I figure out Lindsay's occupation, I'll see how she does. If she's a teacher, I'll be back with something to say. I stopped adding new data to the model a couple of seasons ago, but historically, 65% of teachers have survived the first RC, and 15% have made it to F2 and 10% have been F1. In other words, teachers are historically a strong occupational group.

Usually, as the season progresses the model is fairly good and predicting what will happen, but that is only after more information is put into it, by which time the super sleuthers and spoilers already have figured out the winner. Incidentally, I stopped really using this after Mesnick (it can't compete with RS), but I checked again its predictive capacity and it still does well for all seasons of the bachelor except one. BTW modelling the bachelorette is completely different and unfortunately viewer popularity doesn't appear to play much of a role either.

For curiosity's sake - which one? :)