Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

I totally agree @Sundy.  IMO the public are increasingly wising up to the fact that the favourite always wins but I don't think many people realise you need to do the max loss math to work out who is actually the favourite.  

Even when DM write their articles about the "bookies favourite" they never take max bets into account.  Sbet could very easily disguise the winner in exactly the way you describe, yet retain the lowest payout figure for F1.

SB odds currently - need max bets for confirming the favorite is still the same (likely is)

Taite sitting pretty in the F1 spot (will need to check max bets to make sure)

Todd sleuthed in SC thread to likely be F2........so Charlie has the bumped up spot for having had the first SD and Todd in that spot is a definite clue SB are in the know.

I can see Charlie as F4 and Rob as F3 or vice versa (Bill getting a bump due to wild rose I'd think rather than in F4 - could be though but looking unlikely and will need to see with SCs as he has less than Charlie and Rob).


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Yes IA, as I said elsewhere I think Charlie is a more likely F4 than Bill due to location if nothing else - otherwise they have 3 out of 4 HTDs in Vic which is boring.  Taite F1 Todd F2 Rob F3 and Charlie F4 makes most sense to me, unless Charlie's edit takes a major dive before HTDs and he's outed as a douche.  Think they'd want the first date clinger to get to at least F4 though.

IA. There was an article I posted on the thread for Charlie around F4 (think it was TVWeek) so I think they'd know. Todd's placement with Sportsbet when they had him in the second spot is that fleeting clue too I think  

I've never been more excited for someone to be F2 than I have Todd   (he can now find someone who will be a much better match for him. Lucky lady!)

Taite still at $50 max others at $100

Thank you so much @Sundy

Saw Sbette (I will be doing that from now on ) had another category for intruders.

Taite definitely still locked in for the winning spot (I don't see that changing)



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Regarding Taite's max bet of $50

I went through archives for Sophie, Matty J, Georgia, and Richie's season and their F1s for those seasons had max bets greater than $50 throughout the season (often at $100 and higher but not near $1000). 

However, when max bets are calculated with the F1s odds, the F1 has the odds favorite spot along with overall least max losses. 

So I think regardless of what SB does for max bets as long as Taite still is the odds favorite and has the lowest max losses it's locked for him as F1 as that's the pattern for past F1s.

Thanks @AllAboutLove. It appears as those it is in line then. I did notice that Todd’s max bet this morning have reduced to $95 which is an odd figure. Perhaps Sportsbet playing with the figures again.

@Sundy   IA I think SB is playing with figures like they did for past F1s.

I noticed the pattern has been who is the odds favorite and max losses (usually those two things combined).

Sometimes SB plays with max losses and max bets during the season but the odds favorite (like Stu who had max bet of $667 while on the season but in the odds favorite spot) still prevails.

Even with Nick's season, while he chose no one and that was deduced by the max bets being so high, they still had Brit in the F1 spot and technically just her being the final contestant standing at RC is the F1 spot even though not chosen (SB kind of gave that away with their "picks no one option").

They have a "picks no one option" this time around but Ali's interviews already said she found love and the odds don't support there not be an official F1 chosen.

For the F1 to turn down the lead, I don't see that happening but even if it does, SB clearly states in their disclaimer that the final contestant not accepting the lead will be treated as F1 winner so that still supports Taite for F1 (I don't see him rejecting her, definitely think they're still together).

I'd love to know how many punters have wasted money on the "picks no one" option.  They really should done their research.  I don't think there has even been a Lead in any version of this franchise MORE likely to pick an F1.  

She reminds me of one of those girls who's kept a scrap book of their wedding day since they were 7 years old.  Everything's planned, they just need a man to tack on to the "groom" page (almost as an after-thought).  

I also don't think there's any way she would pick someone unless she was confident they'd accept.  Gotta get that fairytale ending!  Yet TPTB have deliberately edited the preview to suggest she gets rejected.

TPTB and Sbet must be high fiving each other over the ending of Nick's season since IMO many people taking out a bet on a contestant from now on will also take out a "picks no one" bet as an insurance policy.  

Free money for Sbet IMO!  If everyone betting did it that would DOUBLE Sbet's profit.  Quite an achievement considering betting on a show where the result is known seems shifty enough to begin with IMO.  

Oh to be a fly on the wall and see exactly how much info is shared.  Considering there may not be pap pics of the FRC this year due to location, I'm even more inclined to think Sbet's knowledge comes direct from Ch 10.

I think TEN and Sbet are in bed together. 

When they added and then quickly took down the odds for 'picks no one" for Nick's season the first thing crossed my mind is that TEN asked them to so as to have their big ol surprise ending. 

Plus they've like Sbet's tweets before and commented back for seasons. Very friendly relationship with a spoiler betting site (nothing hostile like with RS in the USA and I say it's because $$$ is involved). 

Legal or not, they're both probably making some money on the side all of them 

Odds after Eps 4 & 5 this week. Not much changed. Taite still the clear winner. They definitely know about Todd considering his odds since the beginning and no SD yet and Rob behind him with SD and kiss.

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Still find it interesting that they put "Final contestant not accepting will be settled as winner" to tie into the preview of FRC and Ali crying her eyes out. I'd think they'd know something just from that disclaimer but considering Taite and his posts and how he was on the show taking Ali away, I think he is F1 and the crying is for Todd and SBette is in bed (or the stairs) with TEN having some fun