Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:Further proof they know the winner IMO - doesn't sound like Taite did anything during ep 1 to justify THIS.



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Agree. SB definitely knows something considering first episode for Taite.

Wonder what the max bets are for first five names: Taite, Bill, Charlie, Todd, Rob (I can see them being F5)

@Sundy whenever you get a chance or someone else who has a SB account to post max bets

TAB even more certain of Taite for F1 at $1.50!!!   They definitely know something    


*Frontrunners (have SCs)*
Taite - 1.50
Charlie - 4.50
Bill - 5.00
Robert - 6.00
Todd - 7.00

*Seen in F10 but not much SCs*
Dan - 15.00
Daniel - 21.00
Pete - 26.00
Danny - 34.00
Paddy - 51.00

*Not seen in F10 - eliminated before F10*

Ivan - 21.00
Damien - 26.00
Jules - 51.00
Nathan - 51.00
Wes - 51.00
Cheyne - 51.00

https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Entertainment/competitions/The%20Bachelorette/matches/The%20Bachelorette


Ladbrokes with odds like TAB. They all got the memo about Taite and backing him as the clear winner 


ladbrokes

Ladies and gentlemen I think we have a winner Taite is the only one with a max bet of $50. All others max bet of $100

Ladies and gentlemen I think we have a winner Taite is the only one with a max bet of $50. All others max bet of $100

@Sundy definitely Taite the winner per SB and max bets. 

All other betting sites have Taite @ $1.50.... Clear favorite and odds becoming near unbackable. Reminds me of past F1s 

Current SB odds


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No winner is going to be such a cash cow for Sbet after Nick's season.  They must love him for it.  So many people will take out an extra bet as an "insurance policy" IMO.   Sbet have probably already made back all the $$$s they had to refund - and more!

Bobette wrote:No winner is going to be such a cash cow for Sbet after Nick's season.  They must love him for it.  So many people will take out an extra bet as an "insurance policy" IMO.   Sbet have probably already made back all the $$$s they had to refund - and more!

definitely a cashcow for SB. They're loving it

I noticed they added "Final contestant not accepting will be accepted as winner" this season. This means if F1 rejects the lead at the end.

Adding that disclaimer totally shows me that SB is 100% in bed with TEN It aligns with the storyboard TEN tried to sell when they posted their sneak preview of FRC of Ali sobbing and so many people saying she gets rejected at the end. Definitely won't be the case imo but a way for audience to bet for F1 regardless and buy into the trope.

Current SB odds. Taite still solid for F1 and don't see that changing.

What has changed consistently is the other guys odds after Taite's odds (guys in #2-#5 spots). Todd, Robb, Bill, Charlie's odds keep changing but that's to be expected. SB only cares about the winner and the rest they can have move around to keep things interesting.

Too funny how after the five guys there is No winner. It's like SB already knows the potential F5 and separating them from those that come after No Winner category


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Yeah it's been conclusive since the start.  Last night I went back up through the thread and double-checked the math to see if anyone else was ever a contender.  

Even when Taite wasn't assigned the shortest odds, factoring in the the max bets have given him the lowest payout figure each and every time.  That says it all IMO.

Even the early state/age group data indicated Taite.  I'll check back if and when we get intruders, but I can't see there being any change to Taite F1 from start to finish.

So the “sure thing” stays constant but the others change based on their dates and or how much TV time?

Idlemess wrote:So the “sure thing” stays constant but the others change based on their dates and or how much TV time?

Pretty much.  Another thing that comes into play is that odds decrease the more money punters bet on them, so the odds for F2 down are partly an indication of who the public has their eye on, partly the picture TPTB want to paint, and partly Sbet insider knowledge.  

Since Sbet only have to pay out on F1, the remaining odds don't matter at all.  They could have Charlie in last place at 500 to 1 if they wanted to.  However they need to make the odds look realistic, or it would be obvious the results are known, which would discourage betting.

I don’t think it will be this season but I’m sure one season soon sportsbet are going to fool us all and have a favourite that is not the known winner. They know that the public now know that the favourite always wins so imagine if their favourite was not the winner and a lesser backed option with high odds but low max bet was the winner. They would make an absolute fortune