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Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by Bobette Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:31 am

Agent99 wrote:Hmm that is interesting.  Victorian and 26-28.  Sounds like Taite.
It does doesn't it? Replying on the SM thread with screencap...
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Post by CatLover Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:35 am

As far as I can tell, the max bet for premiere viewers is $100 for the 801,000 to 900,000 option. The maximum bet for the age of the winner is $50 for the 26 - 28 age range. The maximum bet for the state of origin of the winner is $42 for Victoria. This is all assuming I'm reading things correctly.
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Post by Bobette Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:45 am

Thanks very much @CatLover - that's helpful indeed thumbsup

It's possible SB may have skewed the odds and max bets so the max loss works out to be roughly the same, the way they did with Nick's season.  The numbers for Nick's girls preseason were:

Age
31-35 @$3.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $100.00
25-30 @ $2.00 and max bet of $100.00 = total profit of $100.00
Less than 25 $4.00 and max bet of $33.00 = total profit of $99.00

State
QLD @  $4.50 and max bet of $29.00 = total profit of $101.50
Vic @ $3.50 and a max bet of $40.00 = total profit of $100.00
NSW @ $2.50 and max bet of $67.00 = total profit of $100.50
SA @ $7.00 and max bet of $17.00 = total profit of $102.00
WA @ $8.00 and max bet of $14.00 = total profit of $98.00

The could be doing the same here (even though I assume there actually WILL be a winner this time.  laugh out loud  Things will very quickly come into focus when the individual guys get named IMO.
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Post by CatLover Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:49 am

I'm surprised we don't know more names yet, with the season only 5 days away from starting. Is it usual practice to only name the guys a day or two out from the premiere or something?
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Post by Sundy Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:41 am

Bobette wrote:Thanks very much @CatLover - that's helpful indeed thumbsup

It's possible SB may have skewed the odds and max bets so the max loss works out to be roughly the same, the way they did with Nick's season.  The numbers for Nick's girls preseason were:

Age
31-35 @$3.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $100.00
25-30 @ $2.00 and max bet of $100.00 = total profit of $100.00
Less than 25 $4.00 and max bet of $33.00 = total profit of $99.00
26-28 @ $2.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $50.00
29-32 @ $3.00 and max bet of $25.00 = total profit of $50.00
33-35 @ $7.50 and max bet of $8.00 = total profit of $52.50
36-40 @ $10.00 and max bet of $6.00 = total profit of $54.00
State
QLD @  $7.50 and max bet of $8.00 = total profit of $52.00
Vic @ $2.20 and a max bet of $42.00 = total profit of $50.40
NSW @ $2.75 and max bet of $29.00 = total profit of $50.70
SA @ $12.00 and max bet of $5.00 = total profit of $55.00
WA @ $10.00 max bet of $6.00 = total profit of $54.00

The could be doing the same here (even though I assume there actually WILL be a winner this time.  laugh out loud  Things will very quickly come into focus when the individual guys get named IMO.

Adding some and changing some as at 9.40pm
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Post by AllAboutLove Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:44 am

Agent99 wrote:Hmm that is interesting.  Victorian and 26-28.  Sounds like Taite.

Agree! When he was sleuthed I posted Taite sounds perfect for Ali - they could workout together bodybuilding lifestyle laugh out loud He has the other typical pattern stats too for promo and preview being seen in that so could be!  yes
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Post by Bobette Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:05 am

Sundy wrote:
Age
26-28 @ $2.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $50.00
29-32 @ $3.00 and max bet of $25.00 = total profit of $50.00
33-35 @ $7.50 and max bet of $8.00 = total profit of $52.50
36-40 @ $10.00 and max bet of $6.00 = total profit of $54.00

State
QLD @  $7.50 and max bet of $8.00 = total profit of $52.00
Vic @ $2.20 and a max bet of $42.00 = total profit of $50.40
NSW @ $2.75 and max bet of $29.00 = total profit of $50.70
SA @ $12.00 and max bet of $5.00 = total profit of $55.00
WA @ $10.00 max bet of $6.00 = total profit of $54.00

Adding some and changing some as at 9.40pm

Thanks so much @Sundy.  

Exactly as I suspected - there's barely any difference to the payout figure when max bets come into play.  yes

So no clear favourite at this stage from Sportsbet's POV. My eye's still on Taite though for other reasons Hugesmile

Adding the scaps for comparison later:

Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 3 UCdYVRo
Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 3 OY7DjIY

Source
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Post by Bobette Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:08 pm

The market for age has now been removed from the SB website. Suspect
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Post by Sundy Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:44 am

Bobette wrote:The market for age has now been removed from the SB website.  Suspect

It’s back

Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 3 8ab86010
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Post by Bobette Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:11 am

Oh.  Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 3 3806527698 Thanks Hugesmile

I thought perhaps they'd realised the narrow age brackets were going to be too much of a spoiler but apparently they don't care.
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Post by Sundy Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:22 am

@Bobette how old is Ali. In actual years, not maturity years
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Post by Bobette Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:34 am

Sundy wrote:@Bobette how old is Ali. In actual years, not maturity years

I think she's 32 - will check...

ETA:  Yup.  32.  

When she appeared on The Bachelor in 2013, Ali was a 27 year old from South Australia who worked as a real estate agent.

Source

For the record, I don't buy this whole read-to-settle-down-and-have-babies storyline.  Considering she's supposedly a "healthy lifestyle motivator" there seem to be a LOT of stories about her liking a drink or 20.  I think a young guy would suit her just fine.
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