Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

All In: Betting on a horse race where no refunds are given for scratchings. This is associated with early betting markets.

This clause is new (I can't remember seeing it before, can anyone else?) and if so therefore significant and IMO almost certainly related to Luke.  

But why would Jarrod drop?  IF Luke is going to walk, and SB know this, and they also know who the real F1 is, there should be a second contender.

@AllAboutLove and @bobette All in betting means there is no paybacks refunds etc. Just had a look at SC from Bach. season and I don't remember seeing that disclaimer before

SugarAndSpice wrote:@AllAboutLove and @bobette All in betting means there is no paybacks refunds etc. Just had a look at SC from Bach. season and I don't remember seeing that disclaimer before

Me neither.  So for them to be yelling "NO BACKSIES" like that in the terms makes me think someone significant is going to walk out and people are going to be losing a lot of money and be v pissed off.  Perhaps that explains the $10 max on Luke?  

Like, maybe they are limiting the amount of money people are throwing away to avoid utter outrage?  Because seriously, if they know Luke is walking out, and they STILL take bets on him, that is crossing a boundary from dubious into downright stealing, IMO.

ETA:  Is Luke's max still $10?

And so it begins! Maxloss after Ep1 for top 3 contenders (aka lowest max loss) from Sportsbet

Luke $2.50, max loss $37.50
Sam $5.00, max loss $100
Apollo $6.00, max loss $125

(and for Jarrod fans)
Jarrod $7.00, max loss $150

ETA: Jarrod is 4th on the max loss scale

Possible F1-F4 contenders sleuthed are:
Luke
Jarrod
James
Apollo
Stu/Intruder when he comes on

If possible regardless of what Sportsbet does can those who are able @Sundy or @SugarandSpice post the max loss and max bet odds for those 4 in addition to whoever else has odds favorites? That way we can keep track and see what matches with pre-season sleuthing TYSM

AllAboutLove wrote:Possible F1-F4 contenders sleuthed are:
Luke
Jarrod
James
Apollo
Stu/Intruder when he comes on

If possible regardless of what Sportsbet does can those who are able @Sundy or @SugarandSpice post the max loss and max bet odds for those 4 in addition to whoever else has odds favorites? That way we can keep track and see what matches with pre-season sleuthing TYSM
 

Sure thing AAL I've got the ol' spreadsheet tracking all contestants this season
Here's James
James $8.00, max loss $175.

I'll workout some kind of weekly update for odd/maxloss tracking of these F4 (and any other fav's)

Bobette wrote:

All In: Betting on a horse race where no refunds are given for scratchings. This is associated with early betting markets.

This clause is new (I can't remember seeing it before, can anyone else?) and if so therefore significant and IMO almost certainly related to Luke.  

But why would Jarrod drop?  IF Luke is going to walk, and SB know this, and they also know who the real F1 is, there should be a second contender.

SugarAndSpice wrote:@AllAboutLove and @bobette All in betting means there is no paybacks refunds etc. Just had a look at SC from Bach. season and I don't remember seeing that disclaimer before

Yeah they have never had the "All in" betting disclaimer as far as I can tell. If Luke does leave then that may be why they are doing so as it would be really shady if they know he leaves and they take people's money. Makes me wonder about that SurvivorAU odds for Odette..because if she never goes back on the show and never was in the F2 then they were wrong to have her with those odds to begin with.

If Luke is F1 then I guess his SM/traveling and the edit for him first ep (hiding him) likely means this season may be different (Luke able to take off from filming) and thus Sportsbets knows this... OR... Luke leaves and Sportsbet knows this too.

Hmm.... will keep sleuthing. And wait for Stu to come in and see what his odds are like as well as the other possible contenders for F1 (Jarrod, James, etc).

@SugarAndSpice! Really appreciate it

If Jarrod (or anyone else for that matter) was solid in second place I'd be convinced Luke was going to leave.  The thing that is making me pause is that the other guys are fluctuating wildly and SB would be looking at a $100+ loss for ANY of the others at the moment.  They're just not going to take that kind of risk, IMO.  Do you know what I mean?

AllAboutLove wrote:

snipped:

Yeah they have never had the "All in" betting disclaimer as far as I can tell. If Luke does leave then that may be why they are doing so as it would be really shady if they know he leaves and they take people's money. Makes me wonder about that SurvivorAU odds for Odette..because if she never goes back on the show and never was in the F2 then they were wrong to have her with those odds to begin with.

If Luke is F1 then I guess his SM/traveling and the edit for him first ep (hiding him) likely means this season may be different (Luke able to take off from filming) and thus Sportsbets knows this... OR... Luke leaves and Sportsbet knows this too.

Hmm.... will keep sleuthing. And wait for Stu to come in and see what his odds are like as well as the other possible contenders for F1 (Jarrod, James, etc).  

Allow me to put my cynical hat on for just a moment. I wonder if after the Bach season, where F1 was soooo obvious.. the best way for Sportsbet to rake in the money would be to have one guy with "obvious" winning odds. The public jump right in, place it all on Luke for the win, the other guys don't even get a look in. Later as the show goes on, the odds change it up. Luke's odds crash, the winner has minimal bets by this stage, everyone jumps ship, and sportsbet inevitably comes out on top.

I am wondering whether the odds may be this way because Stu/Intruder is not yet in and if he is indeed in F2 that could make a bid difference with the odds later on?

Good point @SugarandSpice that Sportsbet could definitely be making things different. Would they do this say if Stu is F1? Or someone else? Like Jarrod of James?

One thing I am wondering though is if the max losses change for one of the F1 contenders (so say James or Jarrod go to F3 and all of a sudden their max losses become $25 or so) what does that mean then? Do the max losses only count when bid or do they count only at the end of the show (meaning, if someone bid on James and he had max loss of $175 at the beginning of the season but at the end of the season has a max loss of $25 then the person makes money for when they bid early on in the season rather than later on?)

Interesting. I think Sportsbet know Luke walks but I don't think they know who wins this time.