Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - F1-F4 Clues - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post any clues for possible F1-F4 here

Just noting some observations from Seasons 1 & 2 regarding the red carpet meetings with the F1 and F2.  May be useful to see if any of these patterns are repeated with Sophie's men at the start of episode 1.

Season 1
14 men at start of season

Sasha F1
Intro package shown before red carpet meetings.  (Second intro after Richie F3) Says most important thing in life is his family (Tie to what Sam said in her intro package)
5th to arrive
VERY distinctive music, completely different from the previous 4.  Tinkly, romantic
VO of him saying he likes to think he's a romantic guy and he has so much love to give
Folds her an origami rose out of a serviette
Sam says he is making her nervous
He tries to cut their conversation short and go inside, she stops him and wants to talk more
He talks a lot about her, hoping it is a good experience for her - shown to be considerate
She makes a comment after he walks off about wanting to talk to him more
He laughs at himself for stuffing up
ITM of Sam saying she was "blown away" when she met Sasha
Says he is gorgeous, she felt chemistry, says again that he made her feel nervous

Michael F2
Intro package shown before red carpet meetings.  (Third after Richie and Sasha)
Talks about his sporting achievements and snapping up opportunities (nothing about family).  Only one other intro package shown after Michael so 4 altogether and top 3 all represented
13th to arrive
Upbeat music, some sparkle noises when he says she looks stunning
Twinkly music over him telling her what he does
Compliments her but overall meeting is short
ITM of her saying it's cool he's a soccer player and probably has a "banging body"

Season 2
16 men at start of season

Lee F1
Featured at the very beginning of the episode (during Georgia's intro) saying "I want someone to share the rest of my life with" over footage of him exiting limo and preparing to meet her.
(Tie in to what Georgia said in her intro about wanting to meet her "forever person")
Shown 9th to arrive, with donkey. Makes a joke about "does my azz look big".  Tell puns to each other
(Tie in to what Georgia said in her intro about wanting a guy who tells Dad jokes and terrible puns)
Comical music
ITM of him (in the mansion) explaining why he brought the donkey.  ITM of him in the garden after just meeting Georgia, saying she "out Dad-joked me".
Gave her his jacket - shown to be considerate - music changes to more tinkly/romantic
ITM of Georgia saying Lee made her nervous, that she felt jittery around him and had butterflies
ITM of Lee saying he feels like a 15 year old on his first date, "you get those butterflies in your stomach"
Both comment in VOs that they felt a spark/connection
Makes a comment as he walks away "you are a bad azz"

Matty F2
Featured at the very beginning of the episode (during Georgia's intro) saying "the one thing that's missing is finding a girl that's going to sweep me off my feet" over footage of him exiting limo and preparing to meet her. Cameron the only other person shown during this time.
Shown 7th to arrive (though it was later sleuthed this was not the actual order)
No special music
Gave her a mixtape
Very short meeting - no ITM talking especially about him (just one saying there are some "good guys"), no comment "behind his back" when he walked off
Overall - unremarkable.

Commonalities:
Both F1s have ITMs of the Lead discussing their meeting
Both F1s make the lead nervous/gives her butterflies
Both F1s are portrayed as considerate and funny
Both F1s have VOs where they say something directly related to what the Lead says in her preview she is looking for - makes it appear they are "on the same page"
The Lead makes a comment to or about the F1 "behind their back" as they walk off
Both F1s have distinctive music - starts off as one piece and then changes to more romantic, "sparkly" as they chat
Both F2s have short/unremarkable chats - F3s have longer chats for both seasons
None of the F1s or F2s are first or last to arrive and there is no discernible order

An interesting extra note:  The first one out of the limo for Georgia's season was Cam, who turned out to be a firm fan favourite. Same with Tara in Bachelor 2017.  They want to start "with a bang" IMO so the first person to meet Sophie may be a likeable, popular guy with the audience (though probably not F1 or F2).

Awesome summary @Bobette 

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:If anything is a predictor of "rinse and repeat" it's when F1s get their SD imo. I've been saying it for years and not just for the Aussie show (US recent years all F1s for BetteUS are Ep5, all F1s for BachUS are Ep3). The biggest predictor for F1 for me has always been Ep3 SD (or Ep5 SD in alternating seasons for BachAU).

Forget BL, Sportsbet, BTS pics, SM activity, etc (all things known after the fact), the stat of first SD being in Ep3 or Ep5 to me is the one thing that holds true so far for all Bach AU and Bette AU seasons. So if Laura is indeed F1, then that predictor for me still stands as it did back in March.

It's why I said last year when Lee got Ep3 SD that I thought he'd be F1 based on that stat alone. Same as Sasha/F1 who also had Ep3 SD. For Richie's season, at the time I didn't realize they did alternating seasons of Ep3 to Ep5 SD for F1 otherwise that would have been a clincher for me.

Imo, barring something big happening (contestant leaves, lead totally changes their mind), those stats for first SD are the biggest indication of F1 imo. It's why I think this show is so predictable when a SD stat can indicate F1 before the season even films, let alone the show airing on TV  

Excellent points as always @AllAboutLove and if you don't mind I'm going to copy this post across to Sophie's board because I'm keen to see if we can work out her F1 before the season starts and these kind of statistics are gold.

AllAboutLove wrote:No problem @Bobette. I am hoping if anyone can change that stat (purely bc they may just not have known who they liked night one) it may be Sophie. It's gotten really old, not just for the AU show but for the US and even NZ with such predictable F1 SDs. I'd love it to change and hope it will. 

I still say keep sleuthing no matter what though as to me that's really the fun part and the discussions too that keep me watching and why I love this forum for all the great discussions and different POV and sleuthing

So based on the above, assuming we have published pics of all the early SDs (which we might not) and assuming they stick with this predictable format, who's date do we think is most likely to be episode 3?  

So far the potential filming schedule is:

AllAboutLove wrote:Possible filming schedule (to be updated/update with any info you find that has dates with event):

June 15 (Thurs) = Filming begins - Sophie said to have entered the mansion; more than 15 men on season (here)
pre-June 20 (Tues) = SD - first SD of season with Jarod Woodgate (here)
pre-June 23 (Fri) = SD or SQT - possible second SD of season with mystery man on beach (here)
pre-June 27 = GD - men seen with Sophie's family; Jarod on GD; could be 2nd GD of season or later (here, here, here)
June 30 (Fri) = SD or SQT - Man bun guy seen on date (here)
July 3 (Mon) = SD - vintage/retro-themed date with mystery man (here)

It seems Jarrod was first. The stroll along the beach looks more likely to be SQT to me, potentially making Samuel's date the second SD, however he is pictured on another date (his second?) on the 18th July and if the photos caption is to be believed, it did not go well, potentially ruling him out of F1. Details on his thread here.

Based on the BTS pics atm it's hard to say since if filming started around 15 June, then the Ep3 SD should have taken place ~ 10 days later (going by the timeline here for G's season that's how long between first night and Lee got his first SD in Ep3). 

So if the filming is about the same with roughly 10 or so days for Ep3 SD, then it could be the contestant who got Ep3 SD is unknown (~June 25) or it was Luke on the beach who was eliminated as per the filming thread here.

ETA: just saw you added the timeline to your post  

I am thinking that it's possible the Ep3 SD is unknown and no BTS pics seen yet. This season has actually been very quiet for DM and media while filming compared to past Bette seasons so it could be that Matrix/Diimex can't release the pics to the public yet and media can't post them yet and thus the suspense is for Sophie's season. 

OR... F1 is not Ep3 SD (which I can see happening for this season given how many early SD contestants were eliminated)

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette I am starting to worry that maybe she didn't find anyone and perhaps why she needs to have people have her back? I admit I am a bit nervous. Going through the early SDs she had (and more than usual those contestants being eliminated pre-HTD) it doesn't look promising and a lot of the guys seem like duds imo compared to last season

I agree a lot her dates seem to be with the younger dare I say fame seeking types so I'm just hoping there are other dates we're not privy to at this stage.  I agree they may be withholding the pics as we saw them do so with Elora's SD from Matty's season just gone.

Of the dates we've seen, Blake and Jake are standing out to me for different reasons:

Blake apparently had two SDs (the harbour and the goats/barn) and the DM article made particular mention of how Sophie was glowing with happiness after their date.  That makes me think he's NOT F1 as they seem to be drawing our attention to him ala early articles about Elise so a possibility for F2 IMO (though BL was not good on the goat date IMO from the BTS pics).

As for Jake, his vintage car date had a lot of coverage as they were driving around in full view pf papps.  The photos were crisp and clear - it definitely didn't look like they were "spying" on production which makes me think they were tipped off or invited.  It also looked like a super romantic date.  And as we have noted before, he is front and centre in a lot of the BTS pics.  Will be keeping an eye on him, though being so young he is possibly not what Sophie wants.

I updated the filming schedule list with more sleuthed info but still am struggling to see a potential F1 from that list so it may be someone not yet seen - unless one of the guys seen already but not in a F1-like way like past seasons (could be Sophie may be a lead who didn't know who she was most into on night one).

Blake's SM: very active and commenting back to people (girls) and seems to be promoting himself. Seems way too much for a F1 

Jake's SM: seems more quiet on SM and more locked down (not as locked down as Jarrod). Could be a contender for at least F4 if not more

Jarrod's SM: most locked down but has first SD which is usually a curse. He seems the most regular/normal guy there though from what's been sleuthed

I really wish there were a few more "normal" guys in the mix.  A lot of the younger guys look like they might have been cast more for the viewers than for Sophie.  I'm holding out hope Full Beard Guy might be a hidden gem, or The Man Without Hair.

Based on the promo SCs here... My early pre-season thoughts so far incl. what has been sleuthed:

Jarrod - I am still keeping my eye on Jarrod as he's been my frontrunner. I know I've said it before but first SD curse or not, this season may be different! IDK. I just have a good feeling about him and he is still locked down. Could be heart broken, could be F1. Either way, he's on my radar and since he's in this promo he may be on Sophie's too!

Apollo/Jake - hmm... I am not liking that they are using Jake's stage name. Unless that's what he wants to be known as? But no surprise they are showing him in their previews considering he's been all over the BTS and media pics! I still don't think he is F1 purely based on age being 24/25 so 12 yrs younger than Sophie (although I do think he is mature) and different life stages. Who knows though, he could be and be a real contender or... he may be the gimmick guy (dressing up for a date and stage name) and there to promote his business. 
****I noticed he updated his IG with a pic from the show (looks like it 's his night one bio pic - they're not up yet on tenplay so it must have been given to him).

James - not sure but will keep him as a possibility as he also seems like a regular guy like Jarrod and more on lock down so could be a contender IF he gets SDs.

The rest of the guys - based on sleuthing are MOT imo (no matter how far they go) and all are either sleuthed to be eliminated before FRC or have liked risque girly pics on IG already.

One thing that's standing out to me is that ALL these guys have been sleuthed already by us on the forum. So unless TPTB are really hiding the F1 in pre-season promos (they usually don't) then the F1 may be in this group.

I swear, I need to actually for once root for the F1, I'm sick of my heart being torn out of my chest every season (Nikki, Matty and now what looks to be Elise). Please give us a love story for Sophie

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:
...from seeing the SCs now in order I am going with my original thought and definitely have my eye on James and Jarrod. First shown and last shown. Both more on lock down. Both have "real" jobs if one will and seem down to earth. For Jarrod, I am thinking the cure may not apply especially if Luke got Ep3 SD. Will see.

Her F1 is going to be special, IMO.  Blake and Samual I think will go far but more for the viewing audience than Sophie.  Still thinking Blake for F2 at this stage, but F1 has me stumped.  Dying to see the full meet & greets - think I'll be able to put in a fairly solid guess after that (and will do so before looking at Sportsbet!).

@Bobette replying here to F1 speculation. I am still thinking out of the sleuthed guys and promo with men that Jarrod and James may be contenders.

Jarrod for possible F1 (I definitely see him in F4):
- is on SM lock down the most out of all sleuthed guys
- has first SD but signs this season may not be like others considering early SD guys went home and are MOTs based on sleuthing and that's very unusual for any season
- BTS pics shows he went on GD to meet her sister and other GD so got quite a bit of time in addition to his SD (and being the first likely even more time)
- BTS pics for first date, as posted in his thread, Sophie looked quite comfortable with Jarrod and smiling a lot so it may have just been cold or the activity itself she wasn't comfortable with and the media saying otherwise is nonsense (especially if he stayed unlike others sent home when media said things awkward, etc)
- shown in early promo (all past F1s have been) and specifically highlighted meeting Sophie (so not just a quick glance) and having a chat with her... so his M&G shown in early promo
- all past Bette F1s were shown pre-season having a red carpet chat with the lead... Jarrod is shown talking about wine and has an activity of sorts with her (past F1s, Sasha had a rose from a napkin, Lee with the donkey, so it could be a pattern with F1s)
- media noting Jarrod as one to watch already (past Bette F1s all had this) and saying they "love" him (bodes well for a love story!)
- out of all the men sleuthed, I think Jarrod fits the most with what Sophie has said she is looking for... down to earth and regular guy with a "real" job and doesn't seem like he is just there for fame/branding but to actually settle down and start a family
- just for me, but love how Jarrod grows/makes wine and how the word "win" is in wine (it could be a sign!)  
- if Sportsbet has Jarrod with lowest odds, I will lock him in, first SD or not

AllAboutLove wrote:

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:
...from seeing the SCs now in order I am going with my original thought and definitely have my eye on James and Jarrod. First shown and last shown. Both more on lock down. Both have "real" jobs if one will and seem down to earth. For Jarrod, I am thinking the cure may not apply especially if Luke got Ep3 SD. Will see.

Her F1 is going to be special, IMO.  Blake and Samual I think will go far but more for the viewing audience than Sophie.  Still thinking Blake for F2 at this stage, but F1 has me stumped.  Dying to see the full meet & greets - think I'll be able to put in a fairly solid guess after that (and will do so before looking at Sportsbet!).

@Bobette replying here to F1 speculation. I am still thinking out of the sleuthed guys and promo with men that Jarrod and James may be contenders.

Jarrod for possible F1 (I definitely see him in F4):
- is on SM lock down the most out of all sleuthed guys
- has first SD but signs this season may not be like others considering early SD guys went home and are MOTs based on sleuthing and that's very unusual for any season
- BTS pics shows he went on GD to meet her sister and other GD so got quite a bit of time in addition to his SD (and being the first likely even more time)
- BTS pics for first date, as posted in his thread, Sophie looked quite comfortable with Jarrod and smiling a lot so it may have just been cold or the activity itself she wasn't comfortable with and the media saying otherwise is nonsense (especially if he stayed unlike others sent home when media said things awkward, etc)
- shown in early promo (all past F1s have been) and specifically highlighted meeting Sophie (so not just a quick glance) and having a chat with her... so his M&G shown in early promo
- all past Bette F1s were shown pre-season having a red carpet chat with the lead... Jarrod is shown talking about wine and has an activity of sorts with her (past F1s, Sasha had a rose from a napkin, Lee with the donkey, so it could be a pattern with F1s)
- media noting Jarrod as one to watch already (past Bette F1s all had this) and saying they "love" him (bodes well for a love story!)
- out of all the men sleuthed, I think Jarrod fits the most with what Sophie has said she is looking for... down to earth and regular guy with a "real" job and doesn't seem like he is just there for fame/branding but to actually settle down and start a family
- just for me, but love how Jarrod grows/makes wine and how the word "win" is in wine (it could be a sign!)  
- if Sportsbet has Jarrod with the F1-like odds, I will lock him in, first SD or not

If Jarrod gets tinkly music during his meet & greet (we already know it'll be long and involve a bonding activity - as you stated above - so tick and tick in those boxes) and if she says something ITM about him giving her butterflies, and then he also gets the nod from Sportsbet, then he's 100% a lock for me too and I'll start crocheting the baby booties for their first born.  

Come in spinner!