Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

AllAboutLove wrote:I am wondering whether the odds may be this way because Stu/Intruder is not yet in and if he is indeed in F2 that could make a bid difference with the odds later on?

Good point @SugarandSpice that Sportsbet could definitely be making things different. Would they do this say if Stu is F1? Or someone else? Like Jarrod of James?

One thing I am wondering though is if the max losses change for one of the F1 contenders (so say James or Jarrod go to F3 and all of a sudden their max losses become $25 or so) what does that mean then? Do the max losses only count when bid or do they count only at the end of the show (meaning, if someone bid on James and he had max loss of $175 at the beginning of the season but at the end of the season has a max loss of $25 then the person makes money for when they bid early on in the season rather than later on?)

Skeppy wrote:I don't want to be one of those armchair FB posters who claim to know who wins but I have it on good authority that Stu Laundy makes it to F2 (from a male friend who could not care less about reality TV dating shows, so has nothing to prove to me, IMO.)

AllAboutLove wrote:I am wondering whether the odds may be this way because Stu/Intruder is not yet in and if he is indeed in F2 that could make a bid difference with the odds later on?

Good point @SugarandSpice that Sportsbet could definitely be making things different. Would they do this say if Stu is F1? Or someone else? Like Jarrod of James?

One thing I am wondering though is if the max losses change for one of the F1 contenders (so say James or Jarrod go to F3 and all of a sudden their max losses become $25 or so) what does that mean then? Do the max losses only count when bid or do they count only at the end of the show (meaning, if someone bid on James and he had max loss of $175 at the beginning of the season but at the end of the season has a max loss of $25 then the person makes money for when they bid early on in the season rather than later on?)

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette @SugarAndSpice thank you both That's how I thought it worked which is why to me it seems if Sportsbet knows Luke wins that they'd have him as the odds favorite (which they do). Stu coming in later and a winner is the only thing I can see changing things so will have to see on that front. It could also explain Luke not being shown much first ep and his SM activity/traveling while filming. Will see though...


I did notice this interesting conversation by the official account and Sportsbet. Maybe they are trying to fool Sportsbet   or just as likely they are in bed with Sportsbet (shady business but I can totally believe it and those Ten insiders making money!!)


https://mobile.twitter.com/BacheloretteAU/status/910437340178345984

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette @SugarAndSpice thank you both That's how I thought it worked which is why to me it seems if Sportsbet knows Luke wins that they'd have him as the odds favorite (which they do). Stu coming in later and a winner is the only thing I can see changing things so will have to see on that front. It could also explain Luke not being shown much first ep and his SM activity/traveling while filming. Will see though...


I did notice this interesting conversation by the official account and Sportsbet. Maybe they are trying to fool Sportsbet   or just as likely they are in bed with Sportsbet (shady business but I can totally believe it and those Ten insiders making money!!)


https://mobile.twitter.com/BacheloretteAU/status/910437340178345984

SugarAndSpice wrote:


You make a good argument AAL. When you place a bid on a contestant it is locked in at those odds. Later in the season, if those odds on that contestant change, and you place a new bet, that bet is locked in at the new odds. At the end of the season, if your contestant wins, you will receive the winnings from bet1 and bet2. Therefore, if sportsbet are confident about F1, then that contestant should always have the lowest max loss.
To address your argument, if a contestant has the lowest max loss for majority of the season, and then that changes, and another contestant takes their place, I would see that as Sportsbet being unsure about F1.
In GL's season I saw this happen with Lee and Matty toward the end.. they had equal max losses! Sportsbet may have been unsure toward the end (weren't we all just a little!)

ETA: What does throw a spanner in the works, is Stu. If he is F1, then how will Sportsbet handle the initial weeks of betting? Quite well... lower the odds on one contestant, get everyone to jump in and bet... later they add Stu, his odds are winner winner chicken dinner (like $1.20), majority of punters lose their money. The only punters who would be winning would be those in the absolute know, who wait for Stu to be added to the ticket...but if Stu's odd are so good, then Sportsbet doesn't lose much money at all anyway! Really, the best scenario for Sportsbet is to have an intruder as a winner

AllAboutLove wrote:

AEF wrote:Thanks @AllAboutLove for summarising what you have sleuthed on return to SM dates and the filming schedule. I just don't see how it can be Luke with the dates outlined.  Can it be Stu then and Sportsbet know it but can't put his name up as yet?

IMO regarding Luke so far:
SM activity = not F1 like
Edit first ep = not F1 like
Pre-season media/SM= not F1 like

The only thing imo that is pointing directly to Luke as F1 is Sportsbet. Everything else sleuthed is NOT patterns for F1, certainly not Luke's SM activity. Every other contestant who has had SM activity has been sleuthed to be eliminated. Without Sportsbet, Luke was also sleuthed to be eliminated. His first episode edit (even though the camera showed him), without even a CP chat shown and a brief M&G, wasn't indicative of ANY past F1 for any Aussie Bach/Bette where the F1 always was shown talking to the lead at CP time. As much as I can see F1 definitely being Luke purely for Sportsbet (which, to do so I have to justify and excuse away all of Luke's SM activity, him supposedly being in NZ during finale week filming, as well as a not F1-edit) and if he does get the staple Ep3 SD that past BetteAU F1s got, I still have some doubt about Luke... so will sleuth it out.

Regarding Stu so far:
= the only contestant who fits what Sportsbet had pre-season and pre-contestant (age over 40, hair brown, NSW)
= he was noted by @Skeppy that a source told that Stu was in F2
= media about Stu being a possible winner

If Stu is the winner it would explain a lot of things imo - not only early Sportsbet odds favorite that only fit Stu, but also the edit so far as well as Luke's SM activity. Another thing I am thinking is... would the show really have someone like Stu on only to drag him to F2 to dump him? On one hand I can say yes, but on the other hand, maybe that's not what the show would want to do to with a half-billion-heir. Then again, maybe Stu doesn't go that far. Still, if he does, perhaps that's the "real" reason Sophie isn't watching the show fully - perhaps because none of the guys on the show are F1? Intruders usually don't win... but until Sportsbet puts the odds up for Stu and considering Sophie knows Stu pre-filming (could be the winning theme this year) I think Stu still has a chance so will sleuth to confirm either way