Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

AllAboutLove wrote:As discussed in Luke's thread here, I can also see Luke eliminating himself and perhaps why his odds are the way they are @Bobette

The intruders (Stu and Bald guy) aren't on the betting board yet either so there's still more odds to go.

Will see but the fact that Sportsbet doesn't have that disclaimer about knowing the winner makes me think something may be up and they don't know for sure.

Will see 

You could be right @AAL about SB not knowing the result.

However I think they probably do, because IMO if not there is no way James would be so high on the list.  I haven't seen anyone at all on SM identifying him as a favourite so I very much doubt people would be betting on him this early.  

Also to a lesser extent with Jarrod - I have not seen many people identifying him as a contender and yet he's up there too.  That could be because he's had a LOT of promotion in the media, but the same can certainly not be said of James.  

It was the same with Elise last season.  She was basically invisible on the show but her odds IMO reflected insider info. Jimmy's odds being that good so early are a big indicator that they do already have insider knowledge of F1, IMO.

@Bobette very true about James, Jarrod, and even Jefferson. Audiences on SM haven't picked them as frontrunners so it does make me think Sportsbet knows something.

Yep.  IMO, public backing can account for Luke's poll position but only insider info explains the odds for the "Triple J's".

I'm interested to know your thoughts regarding Apollo's odds?  Do you think people are discounting him purely on age?

Also, do you happen to recall where Courtney was placed in the odds last year?  I know Lee was always fave, but was Court ranked higher than Matty before he eliminated himself?

Here are the odds for last season and by Sportsbet Sept 21 so there could have been other odds before then. I will have to check.

Note: Lee and Matty in the F1 and F2 spot and exactly how it ended (Lee/F1, Matty/F2)

Wednesday 21/09/2016

After the first night and after Dale and Carlos had been eliminated in the first ep.

Note: Lee still F1 odds favorite (he was in the #1 odds spot entire season), Courtney got the WR (thus explains him being in the second spot), and Cam was shown out limo first and already a fan fan (thus in the third spot)

Sources: sportsbet.com.au

Thanks, @AllAboutLove, appreciate you digging those up.

Bobette wrote:Yep.  IMO, public backing can account for Luke's poll position but only insider info explains the odds for the "Triple J's".

I totally agree about the 3J's (James, Jefferson, Jarrod) being insider knowledge. Also love the Triple J moniker So on point.

As for Luke, unless he is eliminated or self-eliminates and thus justifying why he was active on SM in July then something may be awry (someone posting for him and with "live" IG stories that are older and uploaded? I know it can be done on IG so who knows. Seems a bit farfetched but will keep it in mind just in case). IA though that public may be backing Luke based on poll position but wouldn't Sportsbet increase their max bet losses for Luke to make more money if they know for sure he is not F1? It definitely is odd because based on sleuthing, I had posted that Luke may have had Ep3 SD which is the pattern for F1. Only way I see him not being so is if he is eliminated/eliminates himself.

I'm interested to know your thoughts regarding Apollo's odds?  Do you think people are discounting him purely on age?

Apollo's odds are "odd" to me (pun intended), especially given he has had such promotion for him already (by official SM and media). I'd think the betting odds for him would be more like Jake's (so closer to top 4) but I guess it could be people discounting him purely on age factor like you said. I expect his odds to move up closer to a favorite once the first episode airs. I could see him in F4 but OTOH if he isn't then it could be he is like Cam/F5 and a fan fav but seen as friendzoned/too young by Sophie (which the public would understand)

Also, do you happen to recall where Courtney was placed in the odds last year?  I know Lee was always fave, but was Court ranked higher than Matty before he eliminated himself?

No, Matty was ranked higher before the season started. As posted above, Matty was in the 2nd spot and Lee in 1st spot before the first episode so Sportsbet definitely knew the outcome and who the F1 and F2 were. Odds only changed (Matty moving down and Courtney moving up in odds favorite) after the first episode and Courtney getting the WR.

Sundy wrote:James at 6:1 max bet $20. Max loss $120
Luke at 3:1 max bet $25.  Max loss $75

@Sundy could you give the max loss for Jefferson, Jarrod, and Apollo. Thank you so much 

AllAboutLove wrote:

Sundy wrote:James at 6:1 max bet $20. Max loss $120
Luke at 3:1 max bet $25.  Max loss $75

@Sundy could you give the max loss for Jefferson, Jarrod, and Apollo. Thank you so much 

Apollo - 36:1 - Max bet $20 - max loss $720
Jefferson - 8.50:1 - max bet $20 - max loss $170
Jarrod - 7.50:1 - max bet $20 - max lost $150

AllAboutLove wrote:

Bobette wrote:Yep.  IMO, public backing can account for Luke's poll position but only insider info explains the odds for the "Triple J's".

I totally agree about the 3J's (James, Jefferson, Jarrod) being insider knowledge. Also love the Triple J moniker So on point.

As for Luke, unless he is eliminated or self-eliminates and thus justifying why he was active on SM in July then something may be awry (someone posting for him and with "live" IG stories that are older and uploaded? I know it can be done on IG so who knows. Seems a bit farfetched but will keep it in mind just in case). IA though that public may be backing Luke based on poll position but wouldn't Sportsbet increase their max bet losses for Luke to make more money if they know for sure he is not F1? It definitely is odd because based on sleuthing, I had posted that Luke may have had Ep3 SD which is the pattern for F1. Only way I see him not being so is if he is eliminated/eliminates himself.

@AllAboutLove, re: Luke leaving of his own accord, that may count as a "scratching" like it would with a horse race but I'm not sure. If the bets just get cancelled and refunded, it would not be in their best interests to allow too much money down on Luke, because they'd have to refund it later.  Far better IMO for them to encourage betting on others who they think/know won't win - then they get to keep it.

Have been looking through the rules on their website.  This seems like it suggests bets would indeed be refunded but I'm not sure - still looking for something more definitive.

253.3 Elimination/Eviction markets apply only to official eliminations/evictions. Any contestant leaving of their own accord or removed by producers will not be treated as the next eliminated/evictee for betting purposes. Sportsbet reserves the right to void all bets placed on an elimination/eviction market should the initial line up for elimination/eviction be changed.

Source

Sundy wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:

Sundy wrote:James at 6:1 max bet $20. Max loss $120
Luke at 3:1 max bet $25.  Max loss $75

@Sundy could you give the max loss for Jefferson, Jarrod, and Apollo. Thank you so much 

Apollo - 36:1 - Max bet $20 - max loss $720
Jefferson - 8.50:1 - max bet $20 - max loss $170
Jarrod - 7.50:1 - max bet $20 - max lost $150

Thank you @Sundy 

So max bets for James, Jarrod, and Jefferson are all $20 and max losses in ascending order: James, Jarrod, Jefferson 

Just looking at the odds and if Luke not F1 and Intruder not F1, then Jimmy seems to be most likely to be F1 and Jefferson or Jarrod as F2. 

One thing's for sure, Apollo is definitely not F1 with that max loss bet   

It will be interesting to see how things change 

Little Jimmy FTW.   IMO

Bobette wrote:Little Jimmy T FTW IMO.  

@Bobette your fave may be F1. How good is that!