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Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by mercieme Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:44 am

It actually makes sense the 2 girls from Sydney have the lowest odds because most folks IMO believe Matty is going to choose someone based in Sydney especially after his HTD on GL's season where his sister stressed to G that she wanted Matty to remain in Sydney giggling

@ssin0547....good catch....I didn't notice before that the tee shirt was tied on the seaplane girl.

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Post by AllAboutLove Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:56 am

It's definitely possible Sportsbet odds could be just because of NSW. However, last season Sportsbet had Alex with the winning bet pre-season and she was in Melb and Lee with the winning bet too pre-season (although also same city). However, in both cases, Sportsbet knew beforehand who the winner was for both those seasons (the same paparazzi that knew the winner for both seasons papped Matty's season so he could know again). I noticed even in their betting page for this season they state that they may know the outcome. Still I will be sleuthing all the way through :yes:
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Post by AllAboutLove Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:00 am

@mercieme thank you so much for the transcript for F7 for Osher's announcement of the contestants yes  

The 4 women (Laura, Elora, Lara, and Elise) that have the more winning odds on Sportsbet are also the ones as you noted whom Osher talked about what type of man they were looking for. 

Given those 4 are also the ones who've been speculated to be possibly F4 it won't surprise me if they are.

The only way they won't be IMO is if one of the other 3 F7 (Lisa, Cobie, Florence) get SDs and likely 2nd SDs which I have a hard time seeing atm.
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Post by mercieme Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:03 am

Great points re Richie's and GL's seasons in terms of what the paps knew ahead of time. I think for sure the paps know the F4 and the F2 since there are many media reports that they are shopping the pics around but the Ten Network court injunction is probably going to prevent anyone from outrightly spoiling them.

On the other hand if we are to believe the report that the 2 paps involved were escorted away from the FRC by the show security after they snagged the pics of the F2 arriving; this might the season where the paps didn't actually get the pics of the F1 for sure......at least I wish Smiley

ETA - thanks @allaboutlove, it was fun to do the transcript, ol mate Osher is quite hilarious Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 9 2498057887

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Post by Bobette Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:09 am

AllAboutLove wrote:Posting here so can have the stats pre-season

First thing I notice is that Laura, Elora, Tara, and Elise are the 4 we have speculated to possibly get HTDs/F4. Seems much more than just coincidental and very likely F4 given those 4 of F7 are sleuthed to have had SDs. Also interesting that Laura is indeed bet to win with her odds.


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http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor

WTF?  

I thought there was a new court injunction forbidding betting on a pre-recorded show?  I was sure that was why the earlier odds got taken off.  Very. Very. Interesting.  Especially since Laura hasn't really been highlighted much at all pre-season IMO and does not seem to be a crowd favourite judging by the comments on the Bach FB account.  

Sportsbet know stuff, IMO.  This has me feeling hmmm

ETA:  Lisa is at odds of 21 to 1??????  That's crazy!  Her bio made her appear a perfect match for Matty on paper and she had exactly the same intro as Laura with the "takes my breath away" clip.  There would be no grounds at this stage for such a huge disparity between their odds.
IMO this is pretty strong evidence Sportsbet have significant insider knowledge :angryemotion

I'm pretty much resigned to it being Laura now, and I don't even know if Elise would get to F2 with those odds.  Oh well, maybe she might go out at F3 or 4 and have the popular backing to be next Bachelorette.  Definitely seems Elora might go further than I gave her credit for.


Last edited by Bobette on Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:21 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by mercieme Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:21 am

@Bobette....Osher's bio was the nail in the coffin for me with Lisa, oh geez it was too much laugh out loud with his synopsis of her and I figured she didn't have a fighting chance after that. Though I maintain that she is the best fit on paper...jmo though.

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Post by Storybook Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:38 am

I've watched all the videos posted and they are great. Matty comes across as I've always thought, genuine and down-to-earth. He said he as fun being the bachelor and he couldn't help but be his goofy self and have a laugh. If Laura is the winner she has to be this type of person to.
I will now reserve my judgement until I see them together.

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Post by Bobette Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:39 am

mercieme wrote:@Bobette....Osher's bio was the nail in the coffin for me with Lisa, oh geez it was too much laugh out loud with his synopsis of her and I figured she didn't have a fighting chance after that. Though I maintain that she is the best fit on paper...jmo though.

giggling Yeah I just re-watched it - pretty demeaning really. Not gonna lie I'm pretty bummed seeing these odds. I don't think Sportsbet have ever been wrong, have they? I know sometimes the numbers fluctuate half a point one way or another when it gets down to the final few but at this stage, for Laura to have such narrow odds with IMO very little justification, on top of the pics of them together on their dates, and her relatives following him on social media, and the old reverse parking... Let's just say I'm turning my attention to sleuthing the runner up.
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Post by LeapofFaith Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:49 am

Does anyone remember what the odds from Sportsbet were on Ritchie's preseason??
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Post by Hearts_And_Roses Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:05 am

Bobette wrote:Very. Very. Interesting.  Especially since Laura hasn't really been highlighted much at all pre-season IMO and does not seem to be a crowd favourite judging by the comments on the Bach FB account.  

Sportsbet know stuff, IMO.  This has me feeling hmmm

ETA:  Lisa is at odds of 21 to 1??????  That's crazy!  Her bio made her appear a perfect match for Matty on paper and she had exactly the same intro as Laura with the "takes my breath away" clip.  There would be no grounds at this stage for such a huge disparity between their odds.
IMO this is pretty strong evidence Sportsbet have significant insider knowledge :angryemotion

I'm pretty much resigned to it being Laura now, and I don't even know if Elise would get to F2 with those odds.  Oh well, maybe she might go out at F3 or 4 and have the popular backing to be next Bachelorette.  Definitely seems Elora might go further than I gave her credit for.

I would disagree that Laura hasn't been highlighted. Laura has been shown in most promos in one way or another, including Matty saying she has caught his eye, and 2 of their dates have been papped. She has also been talked about in Daily Mail as the favourite (with them referencing our forum as their source). Plus Bachie fans will know she is a Sydney girl, so from Matty's state, and they may have even started following her tonimay account on Instagram as it was one of the few public accounts.

Elise's odds on the other hand should be quite long, as she has been relatively hidden pre-season. Elora, Cobie and Tara should have quite short odds considering their intros showed them in a reasonably positive light, and especially Elora, as she's also been featured as a main player on night one in the promo.

Lisa is the one that also surprises me the most. Considering what Matty said abut her in the promo, I would have thought her odds would shorter.

Having said all of that, I would say Laura is firming up as F1 at this stage.
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Post by AllAboutLove Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:29 am

LeapofFaith wrote:Does anyone remember what the odds from Sportsbet were on Ritchie's preseason??
I'd have to find the post in the archives but Alex was the odds on winner before Richie's season started. Same as Lee. Fishy I know if Laura wins. laugh out loud

Another thing I noticed with Osher... what he said about Laura.. it felt very short like he was trying not to give anything away. If he was gushing about her I would be more worried. Because no matter how much he may like Matty, I don't see him gushing about his F1. Osher never does. Osher loves SamW and Snez and gushed about Heather, posting live FB vids of him talking up Heather etc. From the F7, I felt like he was more gushy about Elise and Tara. Which is not such a good sign imo considering how Osh is...

Still lots to sleuth though...Can't wait for some SCs. Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 9 1710264613


Last edited by AllAboutLove on Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by mercieme Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:32 am

Clues for Elise as F1
Hearts_And_Roses wrote:So what are our hints for Elise as F1 at this stage?

- She's had the least coverage so far, so if they're going for the slow burn story line to match Matty's she is the most similar.

- She ticks all the boxes - down to earth, funny, natural beauty, loves adventure and the outdoors, loves water sports, ambitious, good family values.

- She commented on a friend's Tweet that she was moving back to Sydney, which was later deleted.

- She has at least 1 really great day & night SD which starts off with lots of fun and laughing and playing, then ending with things getting very intimate in a hot tub.

- Her SD comes straight after Matty's brain break, which may be a clue that she was chosen to cheer him up if he was feeling overwhelmed.

- We know she makes it to at least F7, and her SM activity has her keeping quiet until post-filming if sleuthed dates are correct.

Anything else?
mercieme wrote:@Hearts_And_Roses ......well captured yes

One thing in addition, her Twitter posting pattern has gaps that suggests she may have gone away for SHVs on the weekends.
Bobette wrote:Yes one more thing - we also have Matty giving Elise *the look* in the hot tub which people have commented is the same look he gave Georgia, i.e.:  

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source

If he had as much trouble hiding his feelings as has been reported, hopefully everything will become clear once we actually see him with the girls.
Elise has been spotted in Sydney since filming ended and could be for SHVs if she went back to Perth post filming since the show classified her as from WA; Family members switched their IG from public to private just before the show media blitz began, could be in anticipation of the media attention on them IMO.

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