Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

There's no way imo that the betting agencies don't know the ending if they have Elise with those odds considering Elise has barely been shown so far. Definitely makes me think they know the end result

Bobette wrote:

carraiger wrote:Stumbled across a Ladbrokes link, they have Laura at $1.25!
https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/novelty/entertainment/33695744-the-bachelor/33695744-the-bachelor/

Loved the odds for Jen!!!

Sundy wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:Just to add: in the video clip here...

When Matty says "I'm here purely because I want to find someone" the camera pans to Elise

@AAL are you on the Elise train?

I am definitely not ruling Elise out for F1 and sleuthing all the way 

Laura to me has all the stats so far for F1. My biggest issue though back when sleuthing was Laura being in NZ for the premiere (which I've always found odd... as I do Laura's SM captions...). Still, lots of F1-clues for Laura (including odds to win by all betting sites and like past seasons, those were always F1).

So... for Laura not to be the F1, there has to be something big that takes place... a "deal breaker" of sorts...

Cue the NW mag interview here that @LeapofFaith posted about that Laura doesn't want kids. Now, if this is true, then Laura not wanting kids is what Matty has said time and time again is his ONLY deal breaker. No way Laura can be F1, imo, if she doesn't want kids if Matty is telling the truth.

So far, in all Matty's interviews he has pushed two things: 1) slow-burn and 2) deal-breaker of someone not wanting kids

Just looking at those two things, they seem to eliminate Laura. 
- If so, and Laura is not F1, then Matty is pushing the F1-narrative and the spoilers and sportsbet for Laura F1 is a foiler/misdirection. 
- If Laura is F1, then Matty is pushing a F2-narrative and misdirecting that way  

Of course, there's always the option that things are done-zo with the F1 and SM is being controlled to make it seem like all is well and everything on SM fits the edited show

No matter what, I will keep sleuthing 

But is it likely matty did not have the kids convo with Laura, if he managed to even have it with liz?

Given how Matty has said it's his deal-breaker for someone to not want kids, I'm sure he had that convo with the girls he was interested in

Very interesting  

Nat who was eliminated saying she doesn't know who won. She says Lisa a frontrunner (totally makes sense) but then says "I think I know too much"... makes me wonder if Lisa leaves as I've thought and Nat knows this? Or at last Lisa doesn't make it that far. Because so far it doesn't look like there's any SCs for Lisa to be going far.

Nat also saying she doesn't know the winner lets me know that any other contestants throwing out names like Elise (such as Belinda did) know something about the ending the way that Betting sites know something considering there is zero way that Elise was a frontrunner since she was MIA until Ep 6 CP time.

PS: Do you have a frontrunner at this point?

Nat: When I was in there, I guess I thought Lisa was . . . Lisa's a bloody good chick, she's a good egg. But I probably shouldn't say too much more because I think I know too much. But I don't know who's won! Which is amazing really, considering. I would've thought there'd be Chinese whispers that'd filter down, but I actually don't know. It's crazy! And kind of good because I'm like, at least I don't have to lie to people when they ask. I'm like, "I actually frigging don't know." I hate lying, I am the worst liar in the world.

Zaynab wrote:https://www.popsugar.com.au/celebrity/Natalie-Holmberg-Bachelor-Elimination-2017-Interview-43854692

Billysmom wrote:But is it likely matty did not have the kids convo with Laura, if he managed to even have it with liz?

Let's not forget, the article was quoting Jen, who IMO has not proven herself to be particularly genuine on the show (personally I think she's been acting the whole time).  So entirely plausible to me she's been told to drop that line about Laura not wanting kids to put doubt in people's minds.  I've said myself that Laura doesn't seem like someone ready to settle down and have kids in the near future (JMO) but I don't think she'd be stupid enough to say so out loud knowing it's a priority for Matty, especially to someone like Jen.

Most definitely IMO (almost even for fact based on all Matty's interviews)....no way he picked his F1 girl without having the children conversation. The producers may choose not to show it so as to give anything away since Matty has gone on record that this is a deal breaker for him.

For Tara's date, we know that conversation of looking forward to having her own family came up on their SD. It has not been shown for any of the other girls so far but SCMIW so I will be watching out for who else that convo is shown for in the coming weeks...all jmo.

Sundy wrote:Just throwing this out there but do we have Laura as confirmed F2

Other than pre-season sleuthing stats, SM by glowbyBeca, Stringy liking IG post long before season aired and only of Laura at the time, Laura's IG about "queen of reverse parking", edit so far with Ep 3 date, spoiler leaks and betting stats, I don't think there is yet evidence to confirm that Laura is in F2. 

There was discussion before that it's possible Laura may not be in F2 and while I still think she has a lot for F1, I am not yet sold as only SCs will determine that for me and as I don't see any for Laura that solidify her being in Thailand or F1 atm even with all the other clues

Still sleuthing it for sure 

Speaking of sportsbet odds. New odds and max bets this week with Elise rising!

SugarAndSpice wrote:Latest Sportsbet odds


Source: Sportsbet

Here are the maximum bets you can place, and I have calculated the potential loss to sportsbet if that contestant were to win based on maxbet and current odds.

Laura max bet $50 (max loss for sportsbet = $20)
Lisa max bet $29 (max loss for sportsbet = $101.5)
Elise max bet $25 (max loss for sportsbet = $150)
Tara max bet $25 (max loss for sportsbet = $200)

So basically Laura winning is a sure bet for Sportsbet and not much of a loss. Feels like Lee/F1 all over again.

AllAboutLove wrote:So basically Laura winning is a sure bet for Sportsbet and not much of a loss. Feels like Lee/F1 all over again.

@Allaboutlove I think @bobette said it best (paraphrasing) - sleuthing, step 1: check sportsbet, step 2: there is no step 2

Interestingly my random sportsbet data from GL/Lee is quite different than this season

My random notes for the 27th of october, 2016

the maximum profit (or loss for sportsbet) that can be made on Matty or Lee is $200.
Matty at 2.75:1, max bet $114, therefore $199.5 loss for sportsbet;
Lee at 1.60:1 max bet $333, therefore $199.8 loss for sportsbet;
(The next day) lee 2.20:1 @ $83 maxbet, = $99.9 loss for sports bet
Matty 10:1 @$11 max = $99 loss for sports bet

After noticing that trend I started making more detailed notes this year, but its completely different! Sportsbet almost "hedged their bets" on either Matty or Lee winning, therefore having the same loss for sportsbet. In comparison, Lauras odds and maxbet tell a very different story IMO!