Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Sleuth and discuss potential F1-F4 here

Clue potentially placing Tara in Final 4:

Pic of Matty arriving for what Diimex calls a "home visit"



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Number in yellow circle and white lines an apparent match for Gold Coast Airport, IMO suggesting HTD for Tara as she lives on the Gold Coast (has been referred to as a "Gold Coast Woman" in the media).

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Source Thanks to @mercieme for second pic

Cobie also lives in QLD but since she works at Weatherford Drilling and presumably lives near that location, production would have more likely flown into Brisbane airport if Matty were visiting her.

Per the pics of athletic GD filmed April 21 (see pics below), these are the F7 in somewhat random order (first four names all girls have been sleuthed to get a SD, some more than one SD):

F7:
Laura  
Tara
Elise
Elora
Lisa
Cobie  
Florence  

From this we may be able to determine the F6 and then the F4 by looking at stats such as: who got a SD, who was posted about pre-season by the official show, media coverage, SM activity, SCs, edit (previews and episodes), etc....


L-R: Florence, Elora, Tara, Elise, Lisa, Laura, Cobie

L-R: Florence, Elora, Tara, Elise, Lisa, Laura, and Cobie
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I am going to post this stat here....every first SD girl since Blake's season has made it to F4 for HTD.

Jess - Blake's season
Sarah - Sam W's season
Nikki - Richie's season

Based on this I think Elora has a good chance of making it to F4. Also I wonder if the producers will push for her getting an HTD to showcase her Tahiti background....but I guess it will be in Sydney since that's where she is based now.

Summarizing sleuthing and for possible F4: Laura, Elise, Tara, and Elora

- Laura and Elise seem to both have gotten 2nd SDs per the filming schedule (those who get 2nd SDs more often than not get HTDs and are in F4).
- Tara speculated/sleuthed to get a HTD (typically the show has never posted a pic/video of the F2 pre-show, so if that pattern still applies it could rule Tara out of F2 so Tara could be either F3 or F4 if she does indeed get a HTD).
- Elora with her getting the first SD of the season and all past contestants who got the first SD of the season got a HTD (it's possible that she may not get a HTD if one of the other contestants got one instead)


It's possible one of the other contestants could have a HTD instead: Lisa, Cobie, or Florence:

- Lisa's SM activity was June 11, so it's possible she could have had a HTD if she also had SD, but if no SDs then not likely in F4
- Florence's earliest SM activity seems to be around June 11 like Lisa's so unless Florence had a SD then not likely she would be in F4 
- Cobie seems to have been out by May 9 per her SM so she could possibly have gotten a HTD but definitely not in F3. Without a SD like the other potential-F4 though it seems more likely she may not have gotten a HTD

Based on stats the F4 should be those you listed @allaboutlove, let's see if they throw a wrinkle into things. If they do then I see Lisa potentially being part of the F4 to have one girl from Melbourne in the mix since right now we have two from Sydney, one from the Gold Coast and one from Adelaide.

One thing I also wonder is if Matty will take a girl that was very vested in him like Richie did to F2 after he witnessed first hand how there was so much public backlash on Richie. I would think Matty would take a girl that would not be as much into him compared to the F1 and hopefully be obvious to us the viewers, should be interesting for sure.

I agree @mercieme that they could have someone else instead in F4. The only person I see possibly not getting a HTD is Elora and maybe Lisa instead. To me it will all depend on whether Lisa (or Cobie or Florence) got SD like Elora did. If Lisa gets a SD then I could definitely see her in F4 instead. Plus, Lisa is the only blonde in F7 so I could see her in the F4 to mix it up.

Laura is officially in NZ... just posted on tonimay Instagram

What do we think... is escaping for the viewing of the first eps a sign of F1, or not F1?

She's also certainly not making any effort to keep her travels secret - makes me wonder, is she hoping for papps at the arrivals gate on her return? She knows she's a favourite already according to DM... is she playing it up, or is she unaware and just going about her business?

@Hearts_And_Roses the travel is not typical F1 behavior IMO. My recollection is that none of the past F1s Anna, Sam F, Snez, Alex went out on holiday that we were able to pick up from sleuthing; if they did, it was under the radar IMO. If pap pics of Laura appears at the airport when she gets back then it will be shades of Richie's season a la Nikki and Olena IMO

mercieme wrote:@Hearts_And_Roses the travel is not typical F1 behavior IMO. My recollection is that none of the past F1s Anna, Sam F, Snez, Alex went out on holiday that we were able to pick up from sleuthing; if they did, it was under the radar IMO. If pap pics of Laura appears at the airport when she gets back then it will be shades of Richie's season a la Nikki and Olena IMO

I was thinking the same thing @mercieme

Again, trying not to get my hopes up, but I have a feeling that producers are happy for her to be taking all the attention at this stage as the early favourite... which to me means she's sacrificing herself as the red herring. For what? Possibly the publicity for her jewellery/fashion range?

It all has a bit of a Heather feeling about it to me (except obv Laura goes further than Heather). I'm just not sure is this is an F1 move... I would have thought F1 would stay quieter at this late stage. Also, she has a private personal account for this stuff, so why post this on her public one?

@Hearts_And_Roses ...as you know I have not been on the Laura is F1 train. Number 1 reason is I just never saw the type of chemistry Matty had with GL in any of the BTS pics with Laura. But the beauty of this forum is that we all see differently and it makes for awesome dialogue. Also Laura is not the only one that fits the charactersitics of what Matty said he is looking for IMO; based on sleuthing I would bet Lisa, Elise, Tara also fit those descriptions IMO.

On another note for the intro packages on the premier episode, I am expecting intro packages for at least 3 of the speculated F3: Laura, Elise and Tara. At least I hope we get Tara's since she seems like she is going to be really funny and quite chill. I won't be surprised if she narrates a lot of the commentary this season

mercieme wrote:I am expecting intro packages for at least 3 of the speculated F3: Laura, Elise and Tara. At least I hope we get Tara's since she seems like she is going to be really funny and quite chill. I won't be surprised if she narrates a lot of the commentary this season

I hope we see packages for those 3. I think it will help to get a better feel for who these girls are, as I'm happy for my early opinion of Laura to be changed if she comes across as more down-to-earth in her package.

Would love for Tara to be the main commentator a la Chantelle & Heather. They usually pick out someone with a great personality who will be around for a while for that job, and she seems likely at this point.