Re: The Bachelor 17 - Speculation/Spoilers - Discussion

by Mr Write Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:18 pm

Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.

by ThankMeLater Tue Oct 16, 2012 4:34 pm

Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.

Danielle screams fame whore to me so idk how she came out as top. But I can see Tierra going far.

by Guest Tue Oct 16, 2012 5:54 pm

Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.

Hmmm...interesting, as both of those girls haven't really been hot topics on this forum. I honestly would be very surprised to see Daniella make it far, since she seems to be the classic "going into entertainment" girl, and Tierra seems too young and different. My guesses for top 3 would be Selma, Lindsay, and Lesley.

Have you used the model for previous seasons? Did it work? What is it based on?

by ThankMeLater Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:00 pm

chasingpavements wrote:
Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.

Hmmm...interesting, as both of those girls haven't really been hot topics on this forum. I honestly would be very surprised to see Daniella make it far, since she seems to be the classic "going into entertainment" girl, and Tierra seems too young and different. My guesses for top 3 would be Selma, Lindsay, and Lesley.

Have you used the model for previous seasons? Did it work? What is it based on?

I agree with you. Tierra has to much in common with Sean but she'll definately go far. My top three would be Lesley,Selma and Lauren :)

by luvstx Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:40 pm

Glad to see Mr. White on here as well as some other talented sleuthers. This season seems so slow to start on the sleuthing side.....

by Scarletta Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:37 pm

Kashathediva wrote:I wish they would go back to the unknowns vs the recycled. I enjoyed those seasons so much more. I guess the last one was Brad 1.0 and he was my favorite bachelor.
It seems with the recycles the drama is more synthetic along with the romance and scripting--so the only thing left is snarking.

I think you pretty much hit the nail on the head. I haven't really cared for the Bachelor leads in quite a while. The earlier shows & Bachelors seemed much better. I think it's because I didn't have any preconceived notions about the lead. I gave them more of a chance to win me over.

It always seems like the ones I like won't agree to do the show. So we're left with guys I just don't care that much about. I'm disappointed going into it. Much harder to win me over.

Plus the women they have to pick from just seem so much skankier. I know, more drama. That's what TPTB are going for.

Anyhow, Sean seems like such a pleasant change from what we usually get.
I hope he gets some truly nice, good women to pick from.

by Love_Me Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:02 pm

Sean’s 1-on-1 in St. Croix Today

Posted on October 23, 2012

Since I’m still somewhat computer illiterate and don’t know how to send out a tweet with multiple pictures in the same tweet, and I didn’t want to send out for separate tweets with pictures in each one, I just figured I’d put up a short post to explain what’s going on. If you missed my tweets this past weekend, I had mentioned filming was headed to St. Croix from Canada. They arrived Sunday, but yesterday did the “reshoot” to make it seem like they didn’t arrive at night. After they had already been in St. Croix, they used yesterday to have the girls get on a seaplane and pretend like they were arriving yesterday where Sean greets them. That’s basically how it works. Plenty of times when they go from city to city, they arrive at night. But when the viewers watch the show, you always see them arriving in day time. That’s because they use the day after they arrive to shoot that sequence. Filming will be in St. Croix all week, then they head to hometowns. I can tell you now, that Tierra actually got a rose when she exited the limo the first night as well, before she even entered the mansion, so she was one of the 10 or 11 or so who were already safe before the first rose ceremony.

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by Love_Me Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:07 pm

Is this who you are talking about?

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by Mr Write Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:11 pm

Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.

From Oct. 16
Interesting eh!

by luvstx Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:18 pm

Mr Write wrote:
Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.
From Oct. 16
Interesting eh!

Looks like the model may still work! :yes:

by Love_Me Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:18 pm

Mr Write wrote:
Mr Write wrote:Several years ago, I tried to develop a model for predicting F1 for the bachelor based on information about both the lead and the bachelorettes. It has never been able to compete with sleuthing and works much better once the full bios are published, but I ran the current contestants through it just to see. For what its worth, Daniella and Tierra came out top. Followed by Lacey, Lesley M. and Jackie. I didn't have any information on Amanda, Desiree, Keriann or Ashlee - so they were not included. I guess time will tell.
From Oct. 16
Interesting eh!

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by Mr Write Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:31 am

Trying to run this model again. Does anyone know Lindsay's age and occupation?

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