Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - Media Social Media - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

@natik Snez also didn't have a 'meet Snez' video like Elise.

It's like a deja vu. Last season the forum went nuts over Nikki being the F1. Most of the time it was stated that it's going to be a shock if she is not the F1. She had apparently all the things going for her being the F1...the perfect and polished edit and the same amount of overexposure in the media even before the show started. This time the writing is on the wall again. Laura is going to be Nikki 2.0 and I can't wait to see all the hell breaks loose it here. IMO

Re: What points to Laura:

AllAboutLove wrote:Laura Byrne  
- seems to have received the second SD/Epi 3 SD (a typical F1 pattern) of the season
- has another SD - likely with plane by water and kissing Matty J (getting 2nd SD a staple for F1s)
- she changed her SM post-filming and matches what Matty J put on his bio last season for Bette
- she's from NSW and Sportsbet claiming winner odds for NSW winner
- Sportsbet claiming winner odds for brunette winning and Laura brunette
- DM and other media claiming that the winner is known and highlighting Laura (spoiled F1? past seasons known so DM and media highlighted F1)
- DM and other media (Mamamia) using info sleuthed from the forum to support Laura for F1
- Pre-season media promotion of Laura and seen as possible winner (typical F1 promotion pattern to highlight F1 pre-season)
- Laura highlighted in Bach S5 promos 1-2 (a pattern for F1s)

I would also add: Highlighted in the beginning then backgrounded in the middle episodes while a slow burn challenger emerges.

And another big one for me:  Who the Lead appears to be chasing/looks nervous or giddy around.  

It's true Elise has one or two hints of the F1 edit but overall IMO Laura ticks more boxes.  It would be a HUGE departure from formula if Elise were F1 IMO.  I'd love it, but I think TPTB are too boring and lazy to change things up to that extent. TWT.

natik wrote:It's like a deja vu. Last season the forum went nuts over Nikki being the F1. Most of the time it was stated that it's going to be a shock if she is not the F1. She had apparently all the things going for her being the F1...the perfect and polished edit and the same amount of overexposure in dem media even before the show started. This time the writing is on the wall again. Laura is going to be Nikki and I can't wait to see all the hell breaks loose it here. IMO

Oh @natik I'm with you. I desperately would love to see Elise as F1 and I'm hoping that to be the case. A lot of the sleuthing I have done behind the scenes makes me think that she may be. I love the way Matty is with her and it kinda corrects my opinion of Matty. I was a big Lee and Georgia supporter, we sleuthed it and saw it right from the start so I didn't concentrate on Matty the way I should have and now I find it really hard to read him.

I do think though that if they continue with the slow burn storyline and he in fact chooses Laura he is going to come off as a big a-hole and a walking contradiction. This in part is really not fair on Matty if he truly dug Laura from the start. I will be watching his words closely to see if he leads Elise on or if it is editing.

I disagree with some of the points made above. The second SD is not the plane (That's Tara) and as we know many girls get two SD's and are not F1. 

The bio change post filming as I suggested could be spiteful. I know I'm the only one that holds that opinion but I think it's possible. 

I think the only two firm things she has in place is the Sportsbet Odds and the Ep 3 single date. I believe they're the only two firm points for F1. 

For me, the thing that holds the most weight is the Sportsbet Odds because we're talking large amounts of money here and when it comes to money, I can guarantee Sportsbet know who the winner is. However, if the odds change in Elise's favour or Elise gets F1 music again and Laura doesn't, that will be enough for me to believe Elise is F1. I am firmly Team Elise but I'm not going to argue against those Odds in favour of Laura.

Bobette wrote:Re: What points to Laura:

AllAboutLove wrote:Laura Byrne  
- seems to have received the second SD/Epi 3 SD (a typical F1 pattern) of the season
- has another SD - likely with plane by water and kissing Matty J (getting 2nd SD a staple for F1s)
- she changed her SM post-filming and matches what Matty J put on his bio last season for Bette
- she's from NSW and Sportsbet claiming winner odds for NSW winner
- Sportsbet claiming winner odds for brunette winning and Laura brunette
- DM and other media claiming that the winner is known and highlighting Laura (spoiled F1? past seasons known so DM and media highlighted F1)
- DM and other media (Mamamia) using info sleuthed from the forum to support Laura for F1
- Pre-season media promotion of Laura and seen as possible winner (typical F1 promotion pattern to highlight F1 pre-season)
- Laura highlighted in Bach S5 promos 1-2 (a pattern for F1s)

I would also add: Highlighted in the beginning then backgrounded in the middle episodes while a slow burn challenger emerges.

And another big one for me:  Who the Lead appears to be chasing/looks nervous or giddy around.  

It's true Elise has one or two hints of the F1 edit but overall IMO Laura ticks more boxes.  It would be a HUGE departure from formula if Elise were F1 IMO.  I'd love it, but I think TPTB are too boring and lazy to change things up to that extent. TWT.

You know @Bobette. Mattys reaction to Laura on the red carpet was identical to Sams to Sasha

Bobette wrote:Re: What points to Laura:

AllAboutLove wrote:Laura Byrne  
- seems to have received the second SD/Epi 3 SD (a typical F1 pattern) of the season
- has another SD - likely with plane by water and kissing Matty J (getting 2nd SD a staple for F1s)
- she changed her SM post-filming and matches what Matty J put on his bio last season for Bette
- she's from NSW and Sportsbet claiming winner odds for NSW winner
- Sportsbet claiming winner odds for brunette winning and Laura brunette
- DM and other media claiming that the winner is known and highlighting Laura (spoiled F1? past seasons known so DM and media highlighted F1)
- DM and other media (Mamamia) using info sleuthed from the forum to support Laura for F1
- Pre-season media promotion of Laura and seen as possible winner (typical F1 promotion pattern to highlight F1 pre-season)
- Laura highlighted in Bach S5 promos 1-2 (a pattern for F1s)

It's true Elise has one or two hints of the F1 edit but overall IMO Laura ticks more boxes.  It would be a HUGE departure from formula if Elise were F1 IMO.  I'd love it, but I think TPTB are too boring and lazy to change things up to that extent. TWT.

These "facts" are not very convincing if you ask me. I use to believe things like who gets the F1 music or whose voice over in the preview is the last more than things like "seems to have received the second SD/Epi 3 SD (a typical F1 pattern) of the season". Because these so called "facts" are  speculations, soft hints not more. Where the F1 music or the last voice over is something we can witness since the last few seasons something that is more reliable.

By the way the departure from the formula already happened last season with Alex and her nuts edit. It's not about TBTB and their laziness to change things it's about how things has been unfold during filming. Matty just didn't made up his mind at the early stage of the filming. He kept an open mind and Elise managed to sneak in at an late stage of the game. IMO

ssin0547 wrote:I disagree with some of the points made above. The second SD is not the plane (That's Tara) and as we know many girls get two SD's and are not F1. 

The bio change post filming as I suggested could be spiteful. I know I'm the only one that holds that opinion but I think it's possible. 

I think the only two firm things she has in place is the Sportsbet Odds and the Ep 3 single date. I believe they're the only two firm points for F1. 

For me, the thing that holds the most weight is the Sportsbet Odds because we're talking large amounts of money here and when it comes to money, I can guarantee Sportsbet know who the winner is. However, if the odds change in Laura's favour or Elise gets F1 music again and Laura doesn't, that will be enough for me to believe Elise is F1. I am firmly Team Elise but I'm not going to argue against those Odds in favour of Laura.

The post I copied above was from the very start of the season - sorry I should have edited the SD one out as it was subsequently proven to be inaccurate (we can blame the Daily Telegraph for that as the were the ones who used the words "single date").  

The other thing I forgot to add was the editing of their red carpet meeting. I compared to previous seasons and found this was the most common pattern:

Bobette wrote:
1. Girl meets Matty, possible special music while walking up
2. Long chat during which girl is awkward in some way
3. ITM of girl immediately after, gushing about Matty and commenting on her awkwardness
4. Cuts back to Matty who says something positive about girl
5. Back to girl entering the mansion, showing how she is received by others.[/b]

Laura and Tara were the two who most closely met those criteria - Elise's meet and greet was nothing like the above.  If she was F1, they would have completely thrown out the rule book IMO.

@Bobette

I want to question the part about Laura fading to the background for the middle episodes while a new lead emerges. I don't know if that's absolutely true. Laura had the SQT and a kiss in Episode 8 and next weeks Episode 11 seems to be quite focussed on her making a move. So it was really only Episodes 9 and 10 where she was put on the back burner a little bit (and not too much, she was still featured narrating the camel arriving for example). All JMO.

I do agree with the M&G point she however. Laura had sparkly magical music when she walked up the stairs.

natik wrote:

snipped

It's not about TBTB and their laziness to change things it's about how things has been unfold during filming. Matty just didn't made up his mind at the early stage of the filming. He kept an open mind and Elise managed to sneak in at an late stage of the game. IMO

We don't know when Matty made up his mind and it could very well have been on night 1. I think it was probably scripted that he would have a "slow burn" of some sort because that was such a huge part of his back story.

But even if he did change his mind half way through, they would have known he changed his mind before they started editing, and IMO would have then made Elise's edit fit the mould. It's not like they're editing in real time.

Just a quick question didn't Matty in georgias season have an ad stating "Matty makes his move" and that's when georgia actually took notice of him? So now same words being used for Laura in this recent ad? Hmmmm

Elise appears to be in Adelaide right now

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYPT6TGFQ2M/