Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Lee had odds at 1.40 so below 2.0 He was unique though in that he was always the F1 odds from the beginning to the end of the season. So far Laura is too. Will have to see if that trend changes. At they rate they're going, I can see Laura being 0.40 at the end of this

Sportsbet is going to make bank on Lisa, especially if she is not in F4 even and is a shock exit. It's why I think Sportsbet know who the winner is so they can offset any money lost by how much they gain with the other bets. They did the same with Megan last season.

mercieme wrote:I don't recollect anyone going below 2.0 below but need to double check. With the frenzy re the snow pics, not surprised more folks even placed bets on Laura driving the odds below 2.0. As I posted earlier, after next week, I expect Laura's odds to drop even lower and go below 1.0 before the season is over...IMO more folks are going to continue to bid on her with the media frenzy.

at Flo's odds....and I feel for all those betting on Lisa, gonna lose big time IMO.

Uhh... I'm no gambler but I'm fairly certain odds would never go below 1.0?  That would mean if anyone bet on her and she won, they'd have to give Sportsbet money.  Not a very smart punting strategy.  

Well that's the detriment of gambling....it's what the casinos prey on in Vegas on a daily basis, they want your money versus them paying out. IMO there is no way SportsBet does not continue to drive Laura's odds lower if more folks continue to bet on her and not the others...that's why we see the huge spread for the other girls especially someone like Flo who i believe made it to F4....all jmo.

mercieme wrote:Well that's the detriment of gambling....it's what the casinos prey on in Vegas on a daily basis, they want your money versus them paying out. IMO there is no way SportsBet does not continue to drive Laura's odds lower if more folks continue to bet on her and not the others...that's why we see the huge spread for the other girls especially someone like Flo who i believe made it to F4....all jmo.

Yes but what I meant is, odds of 1.0 can be interpreted a sure thing - they think it is 100% likely to happen.  If you bet $1 on someone who has odds of 1.0 and then win, you get $1 back (minus the Sportsbet fee, so definitely not worth doing - not even really worth doing at 1.70 but I digress...).  

At the moment Elise is at 8.0, which means if you bet $1 on her and she wins, you get $8 back.  If Laura's odds went below 1.0 to 0.9, that would mean if you bet $1 on her, you would only get 90c back - you would lose 10c.  I'm pretty sure odds never go below 1.0 for anything because no-one in their right mind would bet.

@Bobette yeah you're right. Odds won't drop below 1.0. Further to the odds, the SportsBet pay out is also controlled by the maximum bet you can make. At the start of the season, you could place a max bet of $50 on all the girls except Laura. Her maximum bet was $25.

That controls the losses for sportsbet as well.

SugarAndSpice wrote:@Bobette yeah you're right. Odds won't drop below 1.0. Further to the odds, the SportsBet pay out is also controlled by the maximum bet you can make. At the start of the season, you could place a max bet of $50 on all the girls except Laura. Her maximum bet was $25.

That controls the losses for sportsbet as well.

Exactly.

Thanks for the clarification, having a maximum threshold of amount on the betting makes sense to me.

SugarAndSpice wrote:@Bobette yeah you're right. Odds won't drop below 1.0. Further to the odds, the SportsBet pay out is also controlled by the maximum bet you can make. At the start of the season, you could place a max bet of $50 on all the girls except Laura. Her maximum bet was $25.

That controls the losses for sportsbet as well.

This convo is cracking me up! re the bold i never new they did this? very interesting thanks

I know right! As if giving her the best odds wasn't a big enough hint in itself. Once again I am reminded of my F1 sleuthing notes from last season:

Step 1: Check who has the best odds on Sportsbet
Step 2: There isn't one.

Their odds really are the biggest clue of all, IMO. They are in the business of making money - they're not going to risk getting it wrong, IMO.

@LeapofFaith Its interesting because you can't just look at the odds.

As an update, the odds are currently Laura 1.70, max bet $50 (max pay out $85); Lisa 4.50, max bet $14 (max payout $63); Elisa 8.00, max bet $10 (max pay out $80).

What does it mean? I dunno.

@SugarAndSpice, I don't live in AU so I can't even view the SportsBet website just the SC that is posted here is what i can see. Thanks for putting the betting in proper context, initially I had thought folks could bet any amount on the girls and not aware there is a threshold.

Interesting to me that the maximum pay out for Elise is lower than Laura's...I am just going to sit here and watch how this shakes out. I am not convinced that just going by Sportsbet odds is definitive for the F1 this season but happy to continue to have this belief till the finale

SugarAndSpice wrote:@LeapofFaith  Its interesting because you can't just look at the odds.

As an update, the odds are currently Laura 1.70, max bet $50 (max pay out $85); Lisa 4.50, max bet $14 (max payout $63); Elisa 8.00, max bet $10 (max pay out $80).

What does it mean? I dunno.

WOAH - they've set a cap for Elise at $10?! That's very revealing. At 8.0 she looks like a slim chance to make it to F4 (in alignment with the little we've seen of her on the show) but with a $10 cap IMO they for sure know she makes the final 2. Sneaky sneaky.