Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

You make a good point about the other shows especially Can Bette - that ending totally went against the uplifting storyline I thought they were going to tell.

Maybe the trip was planned/paid for before she even signed up for the Bach though?  If it's for her sister's birthday, the date couldn't be changed.  

Her being MIA isn't enough for me to counter the other evidence for her being F1 IMO especially with those unjustifiably short Sportsbet odds.

You know I am Elise's Number One Cheergirl around here and would absolutely L-O-V-E it if she was F1, but I'm having a hard time believing it yet.

At this point I just really want the show to start so we can see them interact and am especially keen to see if the limo exit/Matty meeting for either girl matches the apparent F1 edit I posted about earlier.

Roll on Wednesday

The fact that Laura's 3rd out of the limo in promos, and that she got the 2nd single date and that her odds are so short is really good evidence that she is F1.

That's two seasons in the row that the producers have made us like the F2 more and it's worked in their favour as we were so invested in Nikki/Matty. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again with Elise because it really sucks us in. She's already so likeable and we hardly know anything about her.

Alex was F1 but she had a TERRIBLE edit as a Stage 5 Clinger.

All JMO.

AllAboutLove wrote:Posting here so can have the stats pre-season

First thing I notice is that Laura, Elora, Tara, and Elise are the 4 we have speculated to possibly get HTDs/F4. Seems much more than just coincidental and very likely F4 given those 4 of F7 are sleuthed to have had SDs. Also interesting that Laura is indeed bet to win with her odds.



http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor

OK, just playing Devil's Advocate for a minute and trying to make myself feel better about these odds which are very much in favour of Laura:

What if they deliberately set the odds like this because of all the pre-season hoo-ha about Laura being F1?  Anyone who was going to bet would probably do a quick Google search and find tonnes of articles spawned off of the Reverse Parking comment, so they might think 3 to 1 is pretty good odds for what appears to be a "sure thing" and throw loads of cash down, lining Sportsbet's pockets.

By the same token, not many people in the wider audience would have Elise on their radar yet IMO as she has been so hidden in the previews and promos until the last day or so.  Assuming SB have insider information (which I'm convinced they do) then putting Elise at odds as short as Laura might raise eyebrows and alert people to the fact that they have insider info (which could be illegal).

So perhaps even if Sportsbet have been tipped off that Elise is F1, 9 to 1 is the shortest odds they think they can safely "get away with" at this point without raising eyebrows. They may think not too many people would bet on her yet so they won't lose too much cash even at 9 to 1.  These odds may drop dramatically after the first episode when they have more "justification" for narrowing them.

In short, if there are any gamblers around here, you might want to chuck some cash down on Elise now.

Bobette wrote:

Bobette wrote:
ETA: Just pointing out that Elise and Matty have very similar facial features and smiles in these pics.  Worth mentioning since people are often attracted to people who look like them (or their opposite-gendered parent - creepy but scientifically demonstrated!).  

Lee and Georgia looked quite similar IMO and then there's the most recent Bach NZ F1 & Lead who could be brother and sister they look so alike.

OMG I just realised how much Laura looks like Matty's Mum!  



Source and SC from Tenplay

Yes she does, plus IMO she looks a bit like Georgia - interesting.

I was interested last year in the odds for Richie's season. "Alex has been a firm favourite all season with Nikki always trailing behind, until now." Nikki's odds shortened at the end because more bets were being placed on her. Alex was always the shortest odds which may indicate what will happen this year too.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3788521/Punters-Nikki-Gogan-win-Richie-Strahan-s-heart-bringing-odds-head-head-Alex-Nation.html#ixzz4nkDCSwZT
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Oh look, DM has come out with an article about Sportsbet odds.  
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-4724216/Laura-Byrne-named-runner-win-Matty-J-s-heart.html
You can always rely on them to be first with the latest news half a day behind our forum.

ssin0547 wrote:The fact that Laura's 3rd out of the limo in promos, and that she got the 2nd single date and that her odds are so short is really good evidence that she is F1.

That's two seasons in the row that the producers have made us like the F2 more and it's worked in their favour as we were so invested in Nikki/Matty. I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again with Elise because it really sucks us in. She's already so likeable and we hardly know anything about her.

Alex was F1 but she had a TERRIBLE edit as a Stage 5 Clinger.

All JMO.

Hey! Sorry for bursting in here but I flew briefly today threw the Threads and could not find some Info about the third individuel Date. Who was with Matty on the third date?

@natik....girl I have missed ya, trust you are doing well

Laura Byrne was the 3rd episode SD but the second overall SD. Elora the Tahitian goddess was the first SD. We have no idea who got the other dates especially the Epsiode 5 SD which has historically also been for the F1. So historically we have had Anna (Tim's season) and Snez (Sam W's season) get Episode 3 SDs while Sam F (Blake's season) and Alex (Richie's season) had the Epiode 5 SDs.

We have sleuthed the F4 as Elise, Elora, Laura and Tara...you can check out the F1-F4 theads (Discussion / No Discussion) and also the SM (No Discussion threads) and of course the contestant thread to quickly catch up.

I am hoping we get no leaks (plenty of speculation already that Laura is F1 though but not confirmed IMO) from the usual suspects like we did in the last couple of seasons. We all think the SCs from the season promo will help immensely.....one more Aussie sleep to go

mercieme wrote:@natik....girl I have missed ya, trust you are doing well

Laura Byrne was the 3rd episode SD but the second overall SD. Elora the Tahitian goddess was the first SD. We have no idea who got the other dates especially the Epsiode 5 SD which has historically also been for the F1. So historically we have had Anna (Tim's season) and Snez (Sam W's season) get Episode 3 SDs while Sam F (Blake's season) and Alex (Richie's season) had the Epiode 5 SDs.

We have sleuthed the F4 as Elise, Elora, Laura and Tara...you can check out the F1-F4 theads (Discussion / No Discussion) and also the SM (No Discussion threads) and of course the contestant thread to quickly catch up.

I am hoping we get no leaks (plenty of speculation already that Laura is F1 though but not confirmed IMO) from the usual suspects like we did in the last couple of seasons. We all think the SCs from the season promo will help immensely.....one more Aussie sleep to go

Hey sweety!!! Missed you too a lot! It was such a crazy but amazing time for us during Richies season. I am still thinking about it with a huge smile on my face! I am good have been busy with the russian and ukrainian season and of course worked a lot.
Thank you for the info. The thing is a good friend of mine found an interesting pattern.

They rotate the F1 dates from 3rd date to 5th one on one every season.

Anna 3rd date
Sam Frost 5th date
Snez 3rd date
Alex 5th date
???? 3rd date

So this season the Girl on the 3rd one on one date going by that pattern is the F1.

EDIT: The thing with Laura reminds me more of the Nikki situation. Seems to me like she is only a cover up for the real F1.

So happy you are doing well....@natik...we sure did had tons of fun during Richie's season and I hope we do the same this season as well. I noticed the same alternating pattern and Laura could very well be the F1, she has a lot of clues but we also have some flags, she is away on vacation now and we have never sleuthed an F1 leave the country for vacation before in this franchise, also she left some clue that points to her as F1 on her IG on a season that is so heightened that Ten Network even has a court injunction against anyone trying to print the leaked pics of the F2 and F4; also her public SM does not indicate that she has been gone for SHV IMHO.

A couple of other concerns for Laura as F1 for me is that Matty said he didn't make his decision (i know this could be Bachie speak but I am choosing to believe him) until towards the end but we have in the promo Matty saying that Laura definitely caught his eye; also the description of Laura (her words) in the media report are concerning to me; calling herself a big flirt is not flattering IMO. But for sure she could still be F1 especially if we see her dates and Matty is just gone for her like he was for GL because he can't hide his feelings IMO. I just hope we don't get pap pics of her arriving at the airport back from vacation like we did for Nikki, otherwise it's going to be a cluster media storm IMO.

Does the dates of the seaplane date align with it being the episode 5 date? Then whoever the seaplane girl is could also be F1?

ssin0547 wrote:Does the dates of the seaplane date align with it being the episode 5 date? Then whoever the seaplane girl is could also be F1?

@ssin0547....I don't subscribe to the Daily Telegraph & therefore can't read the details of the article; but a quick search on DT for Matty J (link below & last article) shows that the article was posted online May 11th. Since we believe based on filming schedule that HTDs were likely over by that time and probably the F3 dates were underway, then that seaplane date occurred sometime when they were still in Sydney and DT just posted it later than when it took place IMO.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/search-results?q=Matty+J