Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

cocopuffer wrote:There’s been reports about the finale that Locky chooses Bella as his F1, but she rejects him, so he begs Irena to take him back, and Irena agrees to pursue a relationship with him.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/amphtml/the-bachelor-australia-2020-rumoured-winner-irena-spoils-ending-instagram-234310802.html

Irena’s odds have also increased lately as well (from 1.50 to 1.55 and then 1.60), while Bella’s has gone down. Should we be worried by these updates? I want to bet some money on Irena but with all the rumours going around is there any point in betting on Irena anymore? Or should I not be deterred by all these factors?

I’m new to this so some advice would be appreciated. Thank you!

Nope.  If there was any risk of Bella being F1 the bookies would know and set their odds accordingly.  She is definitely not going to be ruled the winner IMO.  

Irena has been the clear favourite before the season began, when the only markets were for state and age (Vic/31).  She 100% gets the final rose IMO.  

I wouldn't bother putting money on at these odds - the return would be very small, and Sportsbet/TAB deliberately make it difficult to withdraw winnings.

Hang round for Elly's/Becky's season and we'll probably have the F1s worked out before the premiere, when there's the chance to make some decent profit.

ETA:  Just checked the exact wording on Sportbet.  The winner will the the woman he "commits to in the final episode", so again, definitely Irena and not Bella IMO.



Source

The rumour that he picks Bella and she rejects him has been around for weeks and the favourite hasn't changed so the bookies are well aware of what happened IMO.

How much money do people usually bet? Is it worth betting more money knowing we’ll probably get our money back and make profit anyway?

I’ve bet on Masterchef recently and I managed to make a profit. Even though the profit was somewhat low (like 40% of how much I bet) it was still felt like it was worth it since I made a return.

By the way why has Irena’s odds increased and Bella’s has decreased? Is that something that happens every season?

@cocopuffer I'm not a gambler, but in previous seasons the max bet limit on F1 has been as low as $15 by the finale, so there is really very little money to be made at this late stage.

Some of our members do have betting accounts and might be able to give you an idea of what the current limit is on Irena.  Honestly though I'd wait till next season or even BiP.

We sleuthed that Conor was in the finale with Mary before it was even revealed there were unknown contestants.  His odds early on were 7.0 - THAT'S the kind of return to aim for IMO.

The odds for all contestants fluctuate slightly depending on who is attracting the most bets from the public - but F1 is always the person with the lowest odds from their arrival.  

Bookies don't care about spoiling the finale - they just want to make maximum profit.  They have never been wrong on F1 since entertainment betting started for this franchise.

TAB (and previously Sportsbet) are in partnership with Channel 10 - they literally get their info straight from production IMO.  This is a prerecorded show - they know who wins.

Wow Conor’s odds are so good, I’ll try to bet before the premiere next time then.
So why do people bother to bet on the other contestants when it’s widely known that the person with lowest odds is always F1?

Thank you so much for your responses, I’ve really appreciated your help

@cocopuffer My pleasure I think the short answer is that it's NOT well known.  And also that TPTB are skilled at hiding the F1 and making the F2 and F3 look likely to win.

Every season we have people who post here convinced Sportsbet must be wrong because they see a stronger connection with the F2 or F3 or whoever.

It's no accident that Bella has been "almost the favourite" since the start.  They tailor the F2 odds to look just believable enough to entice people to bet.

The bookies wouldn't know who is going to be portrayed as the red herring F2/F3 without seeing the show so again they get this info from production, IMO.

TPTB benefits as much as the bookies because it builds interest in the show, which feeds back into advertising dollars.  IMO certain media outlets are in bed with them too.

cocopuffer wrote:There’s been reports about the finale that Locky chooses Bella as his F1, but she rejects him, so he begs Irena to take him back, and Irena agrees to pursue a relationship with him.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/amphtml/the-bachelor-australia-2020-rumoured-winner-irena-spoils-ending-instagram-234310802.html

Irena’s odds have also increased lately as well (from 1.50 to 1.55 and then 1.60), while Bella’s has gone down. Should we be worried by these updates? I want to bet some money on Irena but with all the rumours going around is there any point in betting on Irena anymore? Or should I not be deterred by all these factors?

I’m new to this so some advice would be appreciated. Thank you!

RE: bold. Worried is an interesting turn of phrase. Nothing to really worry about if that happened but as Bobette says, the betting odds have never been wrong. They know the outcome and they're not in the business of losing money.