Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:I'm keeping a close eye on Sportsbet's numbers, which so far have not budged an inch.





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The above is just "statistically most likely" guesses IMO - when the numbers change that will be significant because it will be based on info about the actual F4.

Also noting that TAB have previously proven to be more reliable/accurate than Sportsbet - but they don't even have a market for Bach or BiP yet.  Hopefully soon...

Bobette wrote:Sportsbet odds have CHANGED for the first time since pre-filming.  Significant since Bella appears to be back so filming may have wrapped.





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TAB are more reliable/accurate but the fact that any changes have been made means something.  Stats don't correlate with any of the first 4 released.  

Without further ado... introducing our first four Bachelorettes! Could one of these ladies be the one for Locky? #TheBachelorAU starts, August 12. pic.twitter.com/5MmfRfBkpn

— The Bachelor Australia (@TheBachelorAU) July 24, 2020

 

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Bella is 25
Irena is 30
Rosemary is 23
Steph is 26

I wonder how old Busty Blonde is.

Bobette wrote:ETA: Adding states for the four girls released so far:

Irena - 30/Vic
Rosemary - 23/Qld
Steph - 26/Vic
Bella - 25/NSW

So yeah, none tick Sportsbet's 28-29/NSW boxes.

Bobette wrote:

Agent99 wrote:Sportsbet's odds have changed to 30-31 yr old from Victoria.  According to that Irena is F1.

There could be some funny business happening with the old "fell in love with two people"

@Agent99 Nice catch!  

I think they're playing the odds straight - 1.50 on the very specific age bracket shows high confidence so unless Llama girl is also 30-1 from Vic then Irena it is, IMO.





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Fits also with this article I was just about to post on the SM thread in which DM chose pics of Irena and Llama girl.  Llama possibly an anticipated F3/fan favourite IMO.

Bobette wrote:

Agent99 wrote:If llama girl is 28/29 from NSW, I am going to be

@Agent99 Yeah I agree I'll be right alongside you.    

That said, I can't see Llama and Irena being F1/F2 because there's not much to differentiate them (unless their personalities are polar opposites which I somehow doubt).  More likely Llama is F3 and Bella or Kaitlyn F2 IMO.  

We are already seeing a strong emphasis in interviews/articles on "taking the physicality out of the relationships" so the *theme* is going to be forming an emotional connection and choosing against his usual type IMO.

... which will probably last 3 months tops.  

Enough wrote:What's the name of BB?

Who is Marliana. She is listed as favourite to win on Sportsbet.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/novelty-bets/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2020-4969435

Agent99 wrote:@Enough  That is interesting.  It must be a red herring of sorts, as I don't even think she is in the below group shot that happens just before lockdown.

Bobette wrote:BB is Kaitlyn and she isn't on the list yet (thinking she comes in as an intruder).  She looks much more like Locky's type IMO, but she's 26 from QLD not 30-31 from Vic.  How very interesting.

3.5 for Marlaina isn't F1 numbers - it should be lower than that - and she wasn't in the pics of the F5.  And 5.0 for Irena is definitely not F1 numbers either.  

Could be a red herring as @Agent99 says and the numbers will fall into line soon.  The only other thing I can think of is that maybe purple dress is also an intruder not Steph and is in fact F1?

Dirty Street Pie wrote:She fits the age and state profile that has been favoured, Sportsbet might be hoping to get some early money on her before the show start airing if she’s MOT. Or she could be hidden behind the tree?

She’s not in the pap pics of the supposed F5 RC, and she was posting on Insta in early June. When did filming go back again?

butterflylove wrote:Oh wowow, I just finally caught up on everything!! Since they haven't released Kaitlyn, surely that means she's an intruder? But would they have zoom intruders? I feel like there has to be because 23 is such an odd number to begin with.

Also at Bel, Bella & Izzy - gotta have that distinction and separation when you have 3 Isabella's .

Vjeff wrote:Marlaina? She was posting again from 21 April.

Bobette wrote:I'm confident she's not F1 - IMO this is a combination of Sportsbet deliberately putting a non-winning Vic girl at the top of the table to attract bets, knowing they won't have to pay out on them, and the public noticing that the winner is tipped to be 30-31 from Vic and deciding that Marlaina is hotter than Irena and more likely to win, thus betting on her, which is driving her odds down further. I'd expect Irena's odds to come down within the next 24 hours if she is indeed F1, like Conor's did (he was 7.0 when first listed).

Bobette wrote:



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