Bachelorette Australia- Angie Kent - Season 5 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

I just worked out the max bets from Sportsbet as at this morning, most you can win on each is:

NSW$50
Vic $50
Qld $80
WA $120
SA $260

Blonde $62.50
Brown $100
Black $125
Bald $150
Red $325

-25 $150
26-28 $49.35
29-30 $50
31-34 $50
35-39 $130

So at the moment I think blonde NSW or Vic is a safe bet

Thanks very much for doing the Math @Sundy

Blonde is definitely the biggest clue for me - it shifted from brunette to blonde before the FRC and hasn't changed since.

And there are only limited blondes this season...  

I'm hoping we might get some bios tweeted this weekend (F1 or F2 most likely among them) and maybe a full cast list Monday.

Bobette wrote:Thanks very much for doing the Math @Sundy

Blonde is definitely the biggest clue for me - it shifted from brunette to blonde before the FRC and hasn't changed since.

And there are only limited blondes.  I'm hoping we might get some bios tweeted this weekend and maybe a full cast list Monday.

Who are the blondes? I want to go check them out

Sundy wrote:

Bobette wrote:Thanks very much for doing the Math @Sundy

Blonde is definitely the biggest clue for me - it shifted from brunette to blonde before the FRC and hasn't changed since.

And there are only limited blondes.  I'm hoping we might get some bios tweeted this weekend and maybe a full cast list Monday.

Who are the blondes? I want to go check them out

Adam - blonde but from QLD not NSW or Vic - pics from night 1 leaked to media - not in either promo - seems super chill but I'm not sure he'd be funny enough for Angie

Unknown - borderline blonde/brunette - possibly in the promo behind the bunch of flowers (hand tattoo looks like a match but could be grotty hair guy as he also has hand tatts) - in the background of the Undercover Brother promo he seems to be hanging with Nice Guy Alex - hidden in pap pics - need more info on him

Ciarran - blonde and quirky/funny but from NT not NSW or Vic - in both promos to date - I'm expecting to like him and he'll go far for comedy/narration value but not F1 IMO

Metallic Jacket - Glenn (?) - blonde, state unknown - not sure if that's the right name but he's the one I've got my eye on - looks to be 31-34 bracket and he's in the first promo meeting Angie but not the second one with the "bad boys" - pics from night 1 leaked to media - if he's funny and from NSW he'd be my early pick for F1

Throne Guy - blonde, state unknown - won't be a contender at all IMO and it looks like he gets booted early in the season if this is him leaving with his bags packed

Thor Hair - looks blonde in some pics but grotty dark brown in others - from the height he would seem to be a match for Tall Guy Grotty Hair and I think he's Timm from Vic though he looks different depending on camera angle - shown in the Undercover Brother promo acting like a dick so won't be a contender IMO.

And that's it!  All others we've seen are brunette apart from Ryan (bald) and Naranga (black). But of course there may be intruders or other blondes we don't know about...

We have a change
Sportbets

Sundy wrote:We have a change
Sportbets

OMG Sportsbet why u do dis.  

So we have an unexplained 2-week delay in airing, accompanied the very next day by a change in odds?  

NOT SUSS AT ALL.  

What's the betting they re-filmed the entire FRC?

Weird. I’m just waiting for TAB. Something strange is going on

Bobette wrote:

Sundy wrote:We have a change
Sportbets

OMG Sportsbet why u do dis.  

So we have an unexplained 2-week delay in airing, accompanied the very next day by a change in odds?  

NOT SUSS AT ALL.  

What's the betting they re-filmed the entire FRC?

Maybe the F1 got caught with a girlfriend?

Well it looks like Sportsbet are sticking with Brunette/NSW/31-34 since the hair colour hasn't changed back.  HOW INTERESTING.

If she chose someone at the FRC then pulled a post-show switch, would the original F1 still technically be classified the winner?  The odds shortly before and straight after the finale definitely tipped blonde.  So if being picked at the FRC is defined as winning, and a blonde was picked, there would be no need to change the odds, yeah?

But in the event of a swap, would that be classified as a disqualification of the winner?  What happens if a horse is DQ'd - does the second place horse become the winner?  Are Sportsbet able to claw back the money they paid out on the original "winner"?  A DQ situation definitely seems like something they would avoid if they could...

If they add some kind of clause elaborating on how "winner" is defined that would definitely make me think something big went down and maybe TPTB reshot the entire FRC, with a different outcome, and that the "replacement" winner is brunette.  Or maybe the full list will place "no winner" as favourite, rendering hair colour irrelevant.    

It might just be that Sportsbet have lost their intel now that Ch 10 dumped them for TAB, so they just took a guess, and have only recently confirmed the actual result that the winner is a brunette.  Maybe F1 is one of the guys with borderline hair colour.  Maybe they read my post upthread and realised how few blonde options there are...  

Whatever the case, something definitely feels different this season IMO.







Source

ETA: Sportsbet's statement on disqualifications/protests:

What happens in the event of a Racing Protest?

If your winnings have been paid when a protest occurs, there may be a small period where we need to re-result your bet.  

What is a Protest Payout?

If your runner comes first but then is decided a loser due to the protest, you may be eligible for a Protest Payout.

Protest Payout Terms & Conditions

If your runner comes first but is relegated as a result of an upheld protest, we’ll still pay you out as a winner for all Australian races.

So if Angie switched F1s, and a switch counts as a DQ, it could cost Sportsbet double - because they'd still have to pay out on the original winner.  Unless they found out about the switch and changed the odds before the premiere.  Which they just did.  

So.....

Something is definitely very fishy. Feels like Honey badger 2.0 

I am checking daily with max bets. The nsw/vic is almost certain. The age is still too wide to say. But very suss on the hair colour. How exciting

It just occurred to me that of the known contestants, the only guy who fits the NSW/31-34/Brunette profile is Carlin.  

Surely not.  He got the first date, the most pap pics, and was the first revealed in the media.  SO many reasons not to be F1 IMO.

Although, him being an actor would have come in handy if something happened post-show and they reshot the finale.