Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

LeapofFaith wrote:Quick question have the bach introduced all the girls yet?  was Laura favourite to win before she was even introduced? i am confused

LeapofFaith wrote:Quick question have the bach introduced all the girls yet?  was Laura favourite to win before she was even introduced? i am confused

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Yes, if Chelsie is still the favourite once all the girls are listed I would call forks on her because we know that we're getting a result this year.

Bobette wrote:If Chelsea is F1, and Sportsbet deliberately leaked her name hoping new punters will open an account to bet on a "sure thing", and that they will re-invest (i.e. promptly lose) their winnings (as was implied upthread), then they are even bigger scumbags than I thought, IMO.

Dirty Street Pie wrote:A gambling organisation being scumbags? Who would of thunk it? 

It definitely could work that way though, I think they make it tricky, but not impossible to pull your money out, but you'd have to think that if you were putting a chunk of cash down you wouldn't be lazy enough to not pull it out when you win?

Bobette wrote:

Dirty Street Pie wrote:A gambling organisation being scumbags? Who would of thunk it? 

It definitely could work that way though, I think they make it tricky, but not impossible to pull your money out, but you'd have to think that if you were putting a chunk of cash down you wouldn't be lazy enough to not pull it out when you win?

Directly emailing bloggers and spoiler sites to try to generate a betting frenzy on Chelsea is really next level scumbaggery IMO.  

Sportsbet: How low can we go?  

AllAboutLove wrote:

olive54321 wrote:

Bobette wrote:

Enough wrote:Betting is back on on Sportsbet

Chelsie $1.25. Max bet $400

Kristen $5  Max bet  $35  

Abbie $8   Max bet  $35

 

Thanks @Enough - those max bets certainly put things into perspective rather than just looking at the odds in isolation.  

Calculating max loss, that means:

Chelsie's max loss is 100(500 max payout-400 max bet).
Kristen's max loss is 140 (175 max payout-35 max bet).
Abbie's max loss is 245 (280 max payout-35 max bet).

Laura's max loss at the beginning of the season was 25 dollars while Lisa's was 100 dollars, so Chelsie's max loss seems a bit high for an F1. Perhaps it will go down once the season begins? We'll see, I guess.

Do you have a url link, screenshot, or a way to show Laura’s max loss for that season? Our archives indicate otherwise so it’s important to have accurate information. In September 2017 was when we have posted screenshots and info of Laura’s odds and max losses. There’s no evidence of any max losses pre-season for a laura.. If you could post where this info came from regarding max losses for Laura that would be super helpful. TYIA

@SugarAndSpice wrote:

OK! Data has been finalised and graphed! IMO the odds represent the changes in public betting, and the max loss represents the risk sportsbet is willing to take (ie the higher the loss, the higher the risk to sportsbet). 

Fig 1 shows the raw data of odds and Max loss for the F3 ladies. Episode numbers are shown. The inset for each graph is focusing on the odds/max loss for ep15 and ep16



Figure 1: Max loss and odds for F3 ladies. Inset is focused on changes during ep15 and ep16.

Fig 2 represents the normalised data to compare the swing in odds/max loss ratio between Laura and Elise. Note that I havent marked ALL episodes, because I did not take odds at the start/end of all eps, but did do so in between. So for correctness, I haven't labelled all episodes on the chart. To simplify this means the following:

Odds 
Laura consistently had better odds of winning than Elise. After Laura's 1 SD (ep3) her odds of winning were 88% vs 12% for Elise. I don't think that would surprise anyone, because Elise was no where to be seen at this point.
The best odds for Elise (30%) occurred at ep14, but were still significantly lower than Laura's (70%). Again, not a surprise really, given the betting public believed Laura to be the winner (IMO) 

Max loss
This represents how much sportsbet was willing to risk. IMO this tells us who sportsbet thinks is most likely to win. Therefore, the bar chart for max loss represents the %chance sportsbet thought that contestant would lose (be F2).  For the entire season, the loss for Laura was significantly less than Elise, ie the chance of sportsbet losing out was always lowest with Laura, therefore, they believed she would be F1. The lowest max loss for Laura was 4% vs Elise's 96%, this occurred at the start of Ep9, following Laura's SQT at the nepean (ep 8). Whats interesting is that after Elise came into the picture (Ep10 1SD) there was a period of time where Sportsbet had almost 50/50 max loss for Elise vs Laura. After Ep13 (elises SQT), this changed back to favour Laura as F1. 





Figure 2: Normalised odds and max loss comparing Laura (red) and Elise (pink).  With relevant episodes or events marked.
Source: My data from sportsbet
 

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Have to go to work, so just posting a quick snap of the odds. All previous categories are gone, and we have individual odds for currently released girls. Chelsie has the lowest odds, but with max bets factored in, she and Abbie are even.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2019-4291412


ETA Accidentally cropped Chelsies odds off of the screenshot, have just looked them up again, and she is $3, with s max bet of $50, and the max loss is $100, which is the same as Abbie. Will do them properly tonight when I get home.