Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - F1 to F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

You nailed it IMO, @Dirty Street Pie

AllAboutLove wrote:Bringing this here to discuss as it ties in what's posted upthread

AllAboutLove wrote:

Sundy wrote:Todd don’t be playing with my heart like this. You know Ali is as blind as bat poop. Have we seriously also discussed if we believe Ali and Taite are still together?
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@Sundy I posted about this in the F1-F4 thread here and we're discussing this very thing about Taite as F1 or still together there because Taite is liking pics of Charlie, Ali is liking negative comments of Charlie, Taite is posting IGstories of himself asking followers to rate him with hearteyes and of himself modeling. It's very 

Will copy this post over to the F1-F4 thread for continued discussion 

Here are SCs of what Taite posted on his IGstories today which I referenced in my previous posts in this thread. First SC is of a gif second is a video of him modeling. It's finale week and he is posting of himself      What you thinking @Sundy

ETA: Taite liking pics of Charlie. His friend @blackie_chan_ commenting "whatever happens" to Taite. Ali unfollowing Phil on IG. Phil liking comments about Ali picking Taite and then going for Phil doing to Taite what she did to Grant.



IG taiteadamradley

Oh, my Gosh! I haven't been able to see this until now as we were our and then had a few guests over. Wow, there is a lot of catching up for me to do! This is soooo odd! I may have missed something, so Ali unfollowed Phil? Was she following him before? Oh, Blackie Chan has been posting mixed messages. Well, at least confusing enough for me so it may be may interpretation of them what is confusing and not her messages. Oh, and if Phil likes those comments then he doesn't trust Ali either...wow! Did you see how in the last interview she didn't specified if she is still in love with the one she picked?

By the way, I may be judgemental but Taite loves loves loves to showcase himself and his body. I also noticed that his sister Skye is now public on Instagram, she was private until last week, so she is happy to have followers after the show, I guess.

Bobette wrote:Oh right I see what you mean now.  Yeah that is new.  OK, interesting.  SURELY though, if he'd not accepted, DM would be all over it by now?  They had tip-offs/spoilers during filming for much lesser drama such as her ousting Nathan for gossiping.

ETA:  @AllAboutLove, Interestingly, Ladbrokes have no such disclaimer.



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If Taite did refuse and technically there were "no winner" they'd stand to lose a TONNE of money at 26.00.  IMO Sbet is in cahoots with TPTB and added that clause to build tension for the finale and start exactly this discussion we're having now.

I politely disagree, Bobette, I have made my case before; the betting agencies have designed entertainment bets in a way that the 'house' always wins.  This season, very few people IMO will be willing to place more than 10 dollars for 'no winner', especially looking at Taite's ridiculously short odds. At the same time, the choice 'Taite' is not worthy the risk, for why would punters  place money on Taite when the margin of profit is minimal? Interestingly, sometimes when the least popular choice wins  the betting agencies make even more money because people placing money on the least favourite choice are a small minority so the betting agencies have pay more money in returns but there far fewer recipients. My recollection is that in that Sportsbet thread it was also mentioned by Sundy and me that this year Sportsbet has been inaccurate and we provided de case of Masterchef and the reasons why Channel Ten and betting agencies cannot be in cahoots as there are already investigations pertaining that issue.

What do I think? Well, I don't really know what to think      I am simply ignoring Sportsbet now, just as I did during Masterchef ...and that is why I had Sashi when he was paying 6.60 when Khanh was the favourite. IMO, Taite is most likely the winner but I think it is Ali's behaviour what makes me feel that way because  I am finding Sportsbet rather distracting so I will pretend Sportsbet doesn't exist.

@Popcorn For All, in regards to Bach/ette, the least favourite contestant has never even come close to winning.  The overall favourite has always been the winner, and I am confident that will be the case again.

Nick's season was an anomaly because there was no winner, but Sbet's favourite was still the last woman standing, and there were other factors that tipped us off that something wasn't right (high max bet etc).  

IMO as I have said before, Masterchef is very different when it comes to Sbet's ability to get info.  Much easier IMO for paps to get shots of an FRC or F1/F2/Lead at the airport than someone cooking on closed set.  

The fact that Sbet have a clause implying the Lead may be turned down - when no other betting agencies have that clause - makes me even more convinced that Sbet has close ties with TPTB, one way or another.

Sportsbet was spot on with the winner of Masterchef. Right from the start it always have the winner in Top 5.

When the series aired, they were still filming but they then have the winner and runner up as sure bet (at that stage the runner up was still not seen by the viewers as a contender)

Enough wrote:Sportsbet  was spot on with the winner of Masterchef. Right from the start it always have the winner in Top 5.

When the series aired, they were still filming but they  then have the winner and runner up as sure bet (at that stage the runner up was still not seen by the viewers as a contender)

Thanks for that info @Enough.  

If the Masterchef winner hadn't been decided when odds were first set by Sbet, that is a significant difference to Bach/ette, and explains why the Masterchef winner may not always be favourite from the outset, while Bach/ette winners are, IMO.

BetteAU and BachAU Sbet is in bed with TEN imo. The show is filmed in advance and based on their accurate record for past seasons - I include Nick's because they knew Brit was the last one at FRC, thus the "intended" F1. If they didn't know they'd have had Sophie in that odds to win spot but they knew she wasn't the last to arrive imo. It's far too obvious that Sbet are in cahoots with TEN 

Outside of Sportsbet, everything we sleuthed before the season started is posted on the firs page of this thread and both myself and @Bobette immediately saw Taite as winning and being F1 and locked him in for F1 before Sportsbet released the names for contestants and their odds. There's been lots of clues that support Taite as F1 pre-season and during the season. I'd be very surprised if he is not F1 (and intended F1) 

What happens after that remains to be seen. I will know when Taite moves to Adelaide that it will last but so far the clues sleuthed don't look good imo. And it's very obvious to me that leads like Ali say they want marriage, kids, babies etc and put a timeline and that's more for a storyboard than reality. If she really wanted that she'd go on MAFS of cast herself on The Proposal AU   There's still time for that I guess  

AllAboutLove wrote: What happens after that remains to be seen. I will know when Taite moves to Adelaide that it will last...

There's a relevant phrase here but I can't quite recall it.  Something to do with flying pink barnyard animals.  

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote: What happens after that remains to be seen. I will know when Taite moves to Adelaide that it will last...

There's a relevant phrase here but I can't quite recall it.  Something to do with flying pink barnyard animals.  

 exactly. Those poor pink barnyard animals need their wings so they can fly away but that's not going to happen imo. I want to see if Ali changes her story or tries to push it like she's serious. It's always that way "I want babies now, tomorrow, marriage in 6 months, etc" then afterwards it's "we're getting to know each other, just taking it day by day"   Part of me thinks she will double down on her storyboard and I could see Taite being coached to say the same. But actions always show what's real so I will watch for that, not some PR prepped speeches 

Enough wrote:Sportsbet  was spot on with the winner of Masterchef. Right from the start it always have the winner in Top 5.

When the series aired, they were still filming but they  then have the winner and runner up as sure bet (at that stage the runner up was still not seen by the viewers as a contender)

That is incorrect, Enough because I was the first person who knew exactly the order or elimination (and even Masterchef knew I knew since I received messages from them asking me to please not to spoil the show, and I didn', they have known me for a while) and the show was still recording when it aired. I worked out the dates all contestants were eliminated, then I told some people like Neel P and Alex Fisher, and other users, not even the media or Sportsbet knew the exact order of elimination. BTW,  Initially, the favourite was  Denise which was ludicrous because she was eliminated earlier. Then the  favourite state for the winner was Victoria (Sashi is from South Australia) and then even Genine became favourite and even Aldo was ahead but I knew he wasn't going to be top 5 because he and I were talking by private on Facebook so I knew he was out and unlike others he didn't have a bot.  Then Khanh Ong was F1 for  weeks, in fact for more than  2 months!  Sashi was always top 3 but only towards the final weeks he became the favourite. Furthermore the last 10 days Ben and Sashi switched places a few times and the last day Sportsbet allowed up to 1,000 dollars bet for both Sashi and Ben. Those are facts. The GF was recorded on the 31st of May yet Sashi didn't appear as F1 for at least a month after that. In fact, most viewers thought Sashi was going to win (because of the obvious edit) even when the betting agencies had Khanh as the winner. That has all been discussed here on the Sportsbet thread a while ago.

See, By the 27th of May I knew that Khanh was not going to win no matter what Sportsbet said because I sleuthed it and even Neel, someone from India (I met him online sleuthing), who sleuths every single of the show thought I was wrong. Just in case  placed a very nice amount on Sashi when he was paying 6.6 so I was a winner in the end. @Sundy has also corroborated this, she knows how the odds changed during MC so she knows I am not lying . Anyway,  we are deviating from the conversation and there is already a Sportsbet thread but I had to clarify this for your statement is incorrect but I presented MC as an example to show how this year betting agencies haven't known it all.

My whole point is that Sportsbet is there and it helps sleuthing but I do not have blind faith on Sportsbet, that is my personal choice.  I prefer to see you all here sleuthing and I enjoy reading your opinions and jokes. Moreover, since I know someone who works for Channel TEN investigating how betting agencies know the outcome I cannot believe that the betting agencies (All of them) and Channel TEN are in it together as it would be breaking the law for only little bit of money. What I do believe is that all the betting agencies are buying information from the paparazzi, and that is not against the law.  Also, Sportsbet wasn't always correct, during Richie's season Sportsbet initially didn't have Alex as the winner and for what I gathered Olena, Tiffany and Nikki were ahead, they only switched places when a paparazzo tried to place a 10,000 dollars bet on Alex, it was in all the media, so they inferred that she was the winner. Thus, I speculate that since Richie's season, all the betting agencies and the DM buy information from the paparazzi. I just checked and apparently Snezana wasn't initially the betting agencies winner either, it changed towards the end, so yeah...I bet the paparazzi goes around asking for the best bidder.  This is IMO Having said that I do believe that Taite wins but that based on the edit and Ali's social media.

@Allaboutlove true that Sportsbet had the intended and then removed it, but other agencies never had the 'he chooses no one' choice, that is why I believe that the paparazzi didn't know it all. Also, sometimes insiders or family sell information In the end none of the betting agencies made money because of the terms and conditions 'void bets' so they had to return the money no matter what or we punters could have started legal action. The terms and conditions have always been very clear.

I will sleuth without paying too much attention to Sportsbet. I just wanted to clarify Enough's argument for it was inaccurate.

I agree with you @Popcorn For All that IMO I wouldn’t place complete faith in Sportsbet. I also not believe IMO that such a large corporation would risk their reputation or profit line by breaking the law having inside knowledge.

What I can’t help but wonder is given I think it’s is been sleuthed that the SC of thehands holding the ring Ali receives in finale are Todd’s, given Taite’s odd SM activities (liking Charlie’s posts, his friend’s response to a comment about Ali, etc), given Todd says he’s ready for marriage more so that Taite appears to be, Ali sobbing at some point during FRC, Todd’s SM still being set to private, his hearts on his FB Bach profile, and many others that could be listed....if we take Sportsbet out of the sleuthing, what says Ali isn’t sobbing because as much as she wants Taite she does realise that Todd is the right choice so she lets Taite go as F2??? I could see her sobbing over that. I agree with others something is off so wonder if perhaps we’re about to be blindsided???

Food for thought

I think a vast majority are expecting Taite to win because the editing of the show clearly shows how in lust Ali is with Taite. It would certainly be a blindside if she chooses Todd in the end. Or Todd rejects her because the public probably expects Taite to be the rejector. However we now have a new promo with the ring which suggests she is not rejected. What is this secret that Todd needs to share with Ali, I wonder. All just speculation.