Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - F1-F4 Clues - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

What interests me most about Luke being eliminated is that the pre-season sleuthing was correct even before Sportsbet was (I'll save my post for that thread) and even before DM articles or anything else!

That's what is key for me is that the pre-season sleuthing about Luke's SM activity and him being able to be on SM almost daily, posting IG stories even live (I couldn't get past that one), traveling to NZ so much, etc all pointed to Luke not being F1. None of it ever made sense to me and why Luke's SM activity ruled him out as eliminated back in July.

So if anything, it has reconfirmed to trust the sleuthing (especially pre-season sleuthing) and NOT the media or betting or anything else and as posted before I couldn't get how Luke was an somehow an exception to the rule that SM activity doesn't lie. It's why I kept banging on how the only way Luke could be F1 was if he was doing some masterful SM misdirection, never traveled at all and it was all a HUGE misdirect - which in the end it wasn't.

As always, goes to show that even with having no Season Preview so no SCs, the sleuthing pre-season still told the story when it came to SM activity of Luke's and that the fact that the only whispers of a possible winner pre-season surrounded Stu (@Skeppy being the first to post about Stu being in F2) say it all imo.

Yay to sleuthing

So back to who can possibly be F1... if we have the correct date for FRC, it can only be Jarrod, Stu or Apollo right? Going by the edit, I think James is the only other viable F1 contender left but FRC would have had to have been the 7th of August at the latest, surely, for him to be back in Tassie having drinks on the 9th?

The last date before HTDs is Blake's on the 21st July... so they would have 17 days after that (if FRC is the 7th) to film RC, 4 x HTDs, RC, 3 x FDs, RC, Travel, Meet the folks, Final 2 dates, FRC. That seems a bit much considering Sophie also has to travel, Film crew has to travel, plus they all have to do the talk to camera thingies?

Thoughts anyone?

Ok, so following on from the brilliant work done by @AllAboutLove in the filming schedule discussion thread...

I am ready to lock James in at F3 (true F2 but I think Sophie lets him go early as she has already decided). I don't see how he can be in final 2 with SM evidence.

So the only ones with a believable F1 edit after that are Stu and Apollo.

My best guess for the order of the final 5 is this:

F1 - Stu
F2 - Apollo
F3 - James
F4 - Jarrod
F5 - Blake

There are 2 separate anecdotal accounts that put both Blake and Jarrod in F4 (friend of Blake, makeup lady in Melbourne) but I believe it will be Jarrod.

I think the guy Sophie was talking about, that she said she really liked then figured out he was a douche later, is Blake. He's the only one with the 'douche' edit.

Of course I could be completely wrong and Apollo could go before F4... but then after James leaves at F3... the result would be too obvious with the way the show has been edited.

Maybe Jarrod is F2 and the TPTBs didn't realise how crazy he would come across??

Thought anyone?

stoneleigh wrote:Ok, so following on from the brilliant work done by @AllAboutLove in the filming schedule discussion thread...

I am ready to lock James in at F3 (true F2 but I think Sophie lets him go early as she has already decided). I don't see how he can be in final 2 with SM evidence.

So the only ones with a believable F1 edit after that are Stu and Apollo.

My best guess for the order of the final 5 is this:

F1 - Stu
F2 - Apollo
F3 - James
F4 - Jarrod
F5 - Blake

There are 2 separate anecdotal accounts that put both Blake and Jarrod in F4 (friend of Blake, makeup lady in Melbourne) but I believe it will be Jarrod.

I think the guy Sophie was talking about, that she said she really liked then figured out he was a douche later, is Blake. He's the only one with the 'douche' edit.

Of course I could be completely wrong and Apollo could go before F4... but then after James leaves at F3... the result would be too obvious with the way the show has been edited.

Maybe Jarrod is F2 and the TPTBs didn't realise how crazy he would come across??

Thought anyone?

These things are not mutually exclusive IMO.  It's totally conceivable to me that production would want Jarrod as F2 for the reasons I mentioned on another thread (people would watch in droves to a/ make sure the clinger doesn't win again and b/ see him cry like a little girl when he doesn't).  A Crazy Jarrod F2, however illogical, is ratings gold, IMO.

As for the order of the rest of them, I'm still completely muddled about it.  I thought from before the season even aired that James would be in the final 2, and having now seen him on the show IMO he's been given the "most F2-ish" edit, but considering he appeared on SM Aug 9, I don't see how he can be - unless the Ash Pollard pic is a red herring.

That said, Mack apparently tipped James for the win which does suggests he'll be F2 since historically contestants leaving at this time tend to say they think the F2 will win (happens every season - I'm convinced TPTB tells every contestant exactly who to tip for the win. IMO most if not all contestants know the result so their "guess" is just part of the narrative, IMO).  

As for Blake, I think Sophie knows darn well he's a douche but I think her feelings towards him are irrelevant.  IMO production cast him in the role of villain and it will be up to them, not Sophie, when he leaves.  If they want him in F4 then he's in it, IMO.  Same with Sam - he'd have gone ages ago IMO but the DD rose kept him around so he could be narrator.

Apollo is awesome but I could actually see him going at F5 simply because of his age.  AFAIK, we have no rumours about him making it top 4 like we do for Blake and Jarrod.  My only caveat about this is that IMO they would want to introduce his family on the show if they're considering him for next Lead, which IMO is a possibility though I know many disagree.  

Taking everything into consideration IMO as unlikely as it seems it could well be something like:

F1 Stu
F2 Jarrod
F3 James
F4 Blake
F5 Apollo
F6 Sam
F7 AJ

I need more SCs to sleuth for possible F2. Right now I feel like I would just be guessing based on limited info. Outside of edit, Jarrod and James and Apollo's SM is not sleuthed so there's no way to know if they were tagged or back on SM earlier (they very well could have been and it was just not known since they were more locked down at the time). I can make a different case for a few of them based on edit but it's not solid enough for me since I don't think F4 are totally locked down yet. Until HTDs, I think there's possibility for different scenarios for who may be F2

AllAboutLove wrote:I need more SCs to sleuth for possible F2. Right now I feel like I would just be guessing based on limited info. Outside of edit, Jarrod and Blake and Apollo's SM is not sleuthed so there's no way to know if they were tagged or back on SM earlier (they very well could have been and it was just not known since they were more locked down at the time). I can make a different case for a few of them based on edit but it's not solid enough for me since I don't think F4 are totally locked down yet. Until HTDs, I think there's possibility for different scenarios for who may be F2

Blake is tagged on August 5th

https://www.instagram.com/p/BXaQH5cg1US/?taken-by=jarredbriotti

I meant to type James, not Blake in regards to F2 so edited my post above. I need to go back and check I definitely remember Blake being active before Aug 5 (near beginning of at least) and never was locked down once he was back on and he was liking a ton of things (so himself on SM and active, like Sam, Luke, etc). Still, given the activity being in August, it could place Blake in F4 per DM article.

Jarrod OTOH was super locked down and no SM activity of him being active. He was for sure the most locked down of any contestant (and it was posted that maybe he was so heartbroken he didn't want to be on SM) and he was one of the last to become active on SM but I don't think there is any sleuthed evidence for when he may have been active during filming, only post-filming. Based on his edit, I could see him as F2 if he is taken that far, just so TPTB can get a complete meltdown from him at FRC. Plus, F2s are those who are typically the chasers whose feelings are not recriprocted. I see that with Jarrod. From Ep7, the guys at the GD said the biggest threads were Stu and Jarrod. So could be foreshadowing if he is not let go before HTDs and goes to FRC. Jarrod making it seem like he was looking into going to Mexico could be misdirection. Sophie defending Jarrod in radio interview this week so could be making him seem more a F1 contender.

Apollo was also a bit more locked down and only became active after filming ended. Since then though he hasn't been that active on SM compared to some others (James for example) and has been MIA when it comes to getting papped, etc. When he did become more active on his FB public page he was commenting a lot, wanting his friends to watch etc, and liking lots of comments.

James no SM activity of him that was sleuthed for him being active himself (the tagged pic he didn't like it at the time, not sure if he has since). If the pic is in real time then I'd think he was out before F2 and maybe before that. His Sportsbet odds from the beginning have been in second place a lot (other than Luke) but his SM he seemed like he had moved on quickly what with following other girls from Matty's season, etc so that doesn't seem like someone trying to be F2. If he gets a HTD then either F4 or F3 I'd think. Else he may not get one.

So out of those and just looking at SM/media etc I'd think F2 would be out of Jarrod or Apollo.

Bringing over from Luke's thread to discuss Sophie's comment about audience being surprised... (the discussion relating to Luke is in his thread)

AllAboutLove wrote:snipped

https://www.instagram.com/p/BaGk09vjvjd/?taken-by=sophiemonk

AEF wrote:Was it Nick or Rachel or started saying that the audience would be surprised at the end? I think it was part of script to counteract how obvious the F1 was?

ITA. Both past BetteAU leads, Sam and Georgia, said or alluded to a surprise ending or things different when it came to obvious F1 (so who media were saying was the likely winner: Sasha, Lee).

Sam Frost in particular always went on to media about how people will be "very surprised" and "pleasantly surprised" when media would say they think Sasha wins. Despite all the times she went on how the ending was going to be a surprise, Sasha won.

So I definitely think it is just misdirect and Bach script just like with past leads

Forgot about Sam F saying that. Yep straight out of the bachelor franchise manual/playbook.

@AEF yeah total bach speak. It was too funny but hey she tried

So just thinking...
according to SM
Blake next one to go
Leaving James, Stu, Apollo and Jarrod
James after that
Leaving Stu, Apollo and jarrod
According to previous post Stu is F2
This leaves Apollo or Jarrod as F1
i can go with Apollo even though he is a bit young, but Jarrod?????
or have i missed something.

Rosieglow wrote:So just thinking...
according to SM
Blake next one to go
Leaving James, Stu, Apollo and Jarrod
James after that
Leaving Stu, Apollo and jarrod
According to previous post Stu is F2
This leaves Apollo or Jarrod as F1
i can go with Apollo even though he is a bit young, but Jarrod?????
or have i missed something.

The consensus based on a number of factors is Stu for F1.
Sophie has spoken about wanting children asap and Apollo (not even his real name) becoming a father at 25 is something I don't think he wants to do. But he could well be F2 (and a popular choice for the next bachelor)
Taking Jarrod to F2 is questionable due to the opinion held of him by the general public.