Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - Media Social Media - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Leah on Studio 10

@SillySally Which mag is this?!

Love the end of this article! It's what Australia will be saying if Elise makes it to F2


https://www.pedestrian.tv/entertainment/tonights-bachelor-promises-to-be-a-bloodbath-with-three-girls-going-home/

The writers named Florence twice but not Lisa??? My son said on the sport forums he posts on, the main woman liked is Lisa. They don't really rate anyone else and they certainly don't think much of Elora.

Latest Sportsbet odds - 17/Aug/2017



Source: SportsBet

Here are the maximum bets you can place, and I have calculated the potential loss to sportsbet if that contestant were to win based on maxbet and current odds.

Laura max bet $50 (max loss for sportsbet = $15) --> loss has decreased
Lisa max bet $38 (max loss for sportsbet = $190) --> loss has increased
Elise max bet $30 (max loss for sportsbet = $150) --> maxbet/odds change, but loss remains the same
Tara max bet $25 (max loss for sportsbet = $250) --> loss has increased

Watched Leah's interview above. No fan of hers but appreciated what she said in that interview and how she said it. When I watched last nights episode and Matty was speaking to Simone and Leah about their topless waitressing I rolled my eyes so hard. It was like being called into the Principals office because your skirt fell above the knees. What is so ridiculous is that Matty admits to being arrested for peeing in a bush (a complete waste of tax payers money) and its all a big joke but Leah and Simone do some Topless waitressing and it's a huge scandal.

I think last night's episode was one of the worst things I have seen the Bachelor air and I think the sl*t-shaming and the general tone was abhorrent - no one deserves to be treated like that for making a legal living. That said I have an issue with Leah being a martyr for this cause. Leah was eliminated for her behaviour towards Simone and she said herself (without remorse or shame) that she purposely tried to push someone's buttons and literally cause a mental breakdown in her. I don't think two wrongs make a right here at all.

SugarAndSpice wrote:Latest Sportsbet odds - 17/Aug/2017



Source: SportsBet

Here are the maximum bets you can place, and I have calculated the potential loss to sportsbet if that contestant were to win based on maxbet and current odds.

Laura max bet $50 (max loss for sportsbet = $15) --> loss has decreased
Lisa max bet $38 (max loss for sportsbet = $190) --> loss has increased
Elise max bet $30 (max loss for sportsbet = $150) --> maxbet/odds change, but loss remains the same
Tara max bet $25 (max loss for sportsbet = $250) --> loss has increased

Awesome, thanks @SugarAndSpice.  1.30 for Laura?   Quick let me place a bet and use my enormous after-fee winnings to buy a pack of gum.  

Very interesting that Elise's odds/max has changed (based on nothing yet again, as she barely spoke all episode) and yet the overall loss is the same.

ETA: Let's see what happens to Elora's odds after tonight's dalliance.

@Bobette I have taken down Elora's odds/maxbet today just to see what happens after tonight. I haven't been following her odds/maxbet because the odds have been so ridiculous Current loss for sportsbet if Elora wins is $500!

I was hoping odds/maxbet would be more exciting this year, my graphing of the data is so dull That said, as a data analyst/researcher I must say the steady downward trend in odds/maxloss for Laura is beautiful

I must confess I don't really understand betting odds, so I'm just wondering is the max loss for Sportsbet the most important figure to know?

Love your work @SugarAndSpice. If you have time, when the season is over it would be interesting to see a line graph of the trajectories of the top few girls over time, if such a thing is easy to produce.

solaroo wrote:I must confess I don't really understand betting odds, so I'm just wondering is the max loss for Sportsbet the most important figure to know?

Depends who you talk to. The following is my understanding/learning of odds and betting. Sportsbet (and other betting agencies.. in fact all bookies!) try to minimise their losses. Odds can be driven by betting popularity, research or (as I suspect in this case) knowing the outcome. Now, Sportsbet also needs to make money off the betting (otherwise they wouldn't do it). To make money they shape the odds to give several contestants "attractive" odds, like Lisa for example. Her odds are reasonable, meaning you will win a significant amount, but at the same time, the odds don't look ridiculous (I'm looking at you Sharlene!). In this way punters are likely to bet on contestants other than Laura "just in case" that contestant wins.

Now, to add to that, Sportsbet set a maximum on how much you can place on each contestant. In doing so Sportsbet has assessed the "risk" that the contestant might win, thus safeguarding the profit margin for Sportsbet.

For these reasons, I believe the "odds" tell us who the publicand Sportsbet thinks is going to win, whereas the max loss for Sportsbet tells us who Sportsbet is backing. Both values IMO are details worth noting for sleuthing, but I place a higher importance on the loss for the bookie.

Eek. Sorry for the long post (probably much more detail than you were after!)