Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Discuss and sleuthing info regarding Sportsbet and other betting agencies here

Thanks so much for starting this thread, @AllAboutLove!  It's so shiny and new .  Copying relevant posts from the SM thread:

SugarAndSpice wrote:

Bobette wrote:

SugarAndSpice wrote:@Bobette Nice pick up with the different timing of the filming for Sophie's interview. The backdrop behind is also different between shots!

ETA: Also RE: your post in Matty's thread. Yes I will be joining in for Sophies season too :D Weekly graph update would be really cool. Its quite interesting as a gauge for how the public are seeing things. A colleague happened upon my stats spreadsheet when I was at work this week (busted!), they couldn't stop laughing... but then got super involved

That is hilarious!  I have the luxury of working from home so as long as my productivity stays high, no-one ever knows about my sleuthing.  People who work in an office get tea breaks - I give myself "Bachie Breaks" throughout the day.  

Great to hear you're on board with the stats!  I'm trying to gauge who I think F1 is before the premiere because once those odds come out, it's a bit of a giveaway IMO.  Love all the psychological gameplay involved in it though.  Bookmakers are crafty devils.

I noticed this year Ten seems to have scrapped the 'Love Leaderboard' for Matty and Sophie, so its hard to work out what the general audience are thinking, so betting will have to do! I wonder if the bookies look at this forum too...

I don't think the bookies would bother with this board.  There only research probably involves paying off their insider, IMO.  And IMO if they know who wins from the outset then all they need to do is set their odds (and max bets) for that person to minimise their losses and then play around with the odds for the remaining contestants based on popular opinion to be realistic enough to attract bets.  They probably can't believe their luck that people are actually willing to bet on a prerecorded show, IMO!

@Bobette yw   It will be interesting to see who Sportsbet have for their potential F1 based on their odds. I just hope whoever it is that the love story is shown and Sophie finds someone special. I recall with Lee's season, that that season Sportsbet had Lee as F1 spot before and during the entire season because of what happened with Alex. With Alex, they didn't have Alex in the F1 spot the entire season (they had Olena in the beginning) and so they lost quite a lot of money since insiders/friends of insiders bet on Alex and made a really good profit. To make sure that never happened again, I was told that Sportsbet set the odds for Lee to the point where anyone betting on him they wouldn't lose much money at all. I expect that to be the same with Sophie's season 

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette yw   It will be interesting to see who Sportsbet have for their potential F1 based on their odds. I just hope whoever it is that the love story is shown and Sophie finds someone special. I recall with Lee's season, that that season Sportsbet had Lee as F1 spot before and during the entire season because of what happened with Alex. With Alex, they didn't have Alex in the F1 spot the entire season (they had Olena in the beginning) and so they lost quite a lot of money since insiders/friends of insiders bet on Alex and made a really good profit. To make sure that never happened again, I was told that Sportsbet set the odds for Lee to the point where anyone betting on him they wouldn't lose much money at all. I expect that to be the same with Sophie's season 

I completely expect the same thing, @AAL.  Sportsbet know their business well, IMO.

I understand that because of this, betting odds can be seen as too much of a spoiler (even on a spoiler forum ) so it's great that we now have this thread since people will be able to avoid that knowledge if they choose.  

For myself I'm keen to try to sleuth the F1 from the red carpet arrivals before the odds are revealed.  If both those things point to the same person it'll be a very strong indicator, IMO.  

Here's hoping the signs point to a good one for Sophie.  

Sportsbet have opened betting and the first set of odds do not bode well for the very BLONDE Jarrod!  



Source

Who do we have with brown hair?  I think Apollo's would be classed as black, yes?    What if it's BLAKE?!  :shocked!:

I honestly don't think anyone would bet on a blonde winning so perhaps Sportsbet feels safe with their odds. 

If Jarrod is not close to being an odds favorite though when they put the names out then I will worry more.

I honestly don't see F1 being any of the other sleuthed guys atm that have dark hair. So unless F1 is almost non-existent I am going with Jarrod ftw.

If it is Blake, I will have to renege on all most posts about Sophie and her being genuine. There's no way she is choosing Blake imo. He's already been typecast as a villain/playboy by the show's IG/vid of him. Not to mention all the sexy girls pics he has liked and followed.

Yes I agree about the typecasting of Blake.  

Also agree the other brunettes seem like MOTs.  The bearded guy I like the look of is brunette but AFAIK there haven't been any pics or reports of him getting a date.  

ALTHOUGH, there are rumours that Stu Laundy makes it to F2 and we have no pics of his dates either.  Maybe none of the F1 and F2 dates have been reported???

So the betting info on hair colour is an interesting one. Didn't the hair colour for the bachelor season get suspended, then scrapped? I admit, I dropped the ball on that one so I can't remember!

SugarAndSpice wrote:So the betting info on hair colour is an interesting one. Didn't the hair colour for the bachelor season get suspended, then scrapped? I admit, I dropped the ball on that one so I can't remember!

Initially they had odds for hair colour, home state, how many girls Matty will kiss, and number of finale viewers. I think they all got scrapped aside from finale viewers as they were seen as too much of a spoiler. FWIW the odds pointed to the winner being a Brunette from Sydney. Now who do we know that fits that description......?

Bobette wrote:

SugarAndSpice wrote:So the betting info on hair colour is an interesting one. Didn't the hair colour for the bachelor season get suspended, then scrapped? I admit, I dropped the ball on that one so I can't remember!

Initially they had odds for hair colour, home state, how many girls Matty will kiss, and number of finale viewers.  I think they all got scrapped aside from finale viewers as they were seen as too much of a spoiler.  FWIW the odds pointed to the winner being a Brunette from Sydney.  Now who do we know that fits that description......?

Thanks @bobette! For what its worth, all the "hair colour" odds have varied max bets, so all of them have a max loss of ~$50

Cheers @SugarAndSpice. I don't even know if we have any silver foxes? Maybe Stu? Luke has some greying at the temples but overall disappointing - I was hoping someone might have the full Steve Martin-eque silvery locks.

Bobette wrote:Cheers @SugarAndSpice.  I don't even know if we have any silver foxes?  Maybe Stu?  Luke has some greying at the temples but overall disappointing - I was hoping someone might have the full Steve Martin-eque silvery locks.

Or at least the good ol' Maxwell Sheffield look from The Nanny with the perfectly placed grey streak