Bachelor Franchise - Random Sleuthing - Discussion

For this show, success is marriage. The show's never talked about couples like Byron/Mary together for 5yrs as a success. If they break up, regardless of how long together or their relationship it's not a success. Only couples who got married like Sean/Cat are a success for lead/F1. Same for the Bettes, Des/Chris being the last to be married from the Bette show. 

For that reason, regardless of how one personally defines relationship success, successful couples are the married ones. The only couples with concrete plans to marry are Arie/Lauren and AshleyI/Jared. I don't see any of the other engaged couples getting married unless they have/had a wedding date set or concrete plans in motion within the year of their engagement.

AllAboutLove wrote:For this show, success is marriage. The show's never talked about couples like Byron/Mary together for 5yrs as a success. If they break up, regardless of how long together or their relationship it's not a success. Only couples who got married like Sean/Cat are a success for lead/F1. Same for the Bettes, Des/Chris being the last to be married from the Bette show. 

For that reason, regardless of how one personally defines relationship success, successful couples are the married ones. The only couples with concrete plans to marry are Arie/Lauren and AshleyI/Jared. I don't see any of the other engaged couples getting married unless they have/had a wedding date set or concrete plans in motion within the year of their engagement.

@AllAboutLove,
IMO, we were having a great discussion about why failure to marry within a year or two does not mean certain couples will not marry. It can also mean they are more consistent with the societal norms for their generation and even though they’re not racing to get married in honor of the arbitrary timeline of strangers - they are happy, committed and will marry when they’re ready. Once couples leave the show and return to the real world, they are faced with reality, not just a reality show so I found the article about the current timeline for real world couples instructive. For our pending couples, the jury is still out. Maybe they are a successful BN match, maybe not. We’ll just have to wait and see. JMO

Chgohighlife wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:For this show, success is marriage. The show's never talked about couples like Byron/Mary together for 5yrs as a success. If they break up, regardless of how long together or their relationship it's not a success. Only couples who got married like Sean/Cat are a success for lead/F1. Same for the Bettes, Des/Chris being the last to be married from the Bette show. 

For that reason, regardless of how one personally defines relationship success, successful couples are the married ones. The only couples with concrete plans to marry are Arie/Lauren and AshleyI/Jared. I don't see any of the other engaged couples getting married unless they have/had a wedding date set or concrete plans in motion within the year of their engagement.

@AllAboutLove,
IMO, we were having a great discussion about why failure to marry within a year or two does not mean certain couples will not marry. It can also mean they are more consistent with the societal norms for their generation and even though they’re not racing to get married in honor of the arbitrary timeline of strangers - they are happy, committed and will marry when they’re ready. Once couples leave the show and return to the real world, they are faced with reality, not just a reality show so I found the article about the current timeline for real world couples instructive. For our pending couples, the jury is still out. Maybe they are a successful BN match, maybe not. We’ll just have to wait and see. JMO

I understand about societal norms and don't disagree that this is relevant to couples that aren't on US Bach/Bette/BIP etc. But when it comes to this show there's zero evidence that waiting over 2 years that the couple will marry. In fact, the evidence points to these couples having a very high probability of not marrying if they don't set a date within the first year or 2 and marry. As for "marrying when they are ready" etc that logic was used on Kaitlyn and Shawn and the fact is it proved incorrect (for them and thus leans support for others in the same situation imo).

That said, it doesn't mean it can't happen and a couple may marry who is together for 2 years plus with no set date. But the evidence specifically for this show shows those who do not set a date and marry within 2 years do not marry. That's statistically 100% for the recent couples for this show. To me that shows me the signs/evidence for those who do marry are those who set a date and plans in motion soon after they are engaged and not saying "TBD" after two years especially.

In regards to generations, I don't see that making a difference with the couples from this show. Many of the couples who married in recent years are/were in the same generation. The current engaged couples who have set dates and plans in motion Arie/Lauren and Ashley/Jared are in that same generation too - all Millennials (incl Arie who I will barely give him is a late Millenial). 

There's those who go on TV and get engaged in the US Bette/Bach/BIP shows and those who don't go on TV and looking at the ones who are US Bach/Bette/BIP marriages, there's clear evidence to support that those who do not make plans to marry or set a date early in their engagement do not do so.

Yeah, at this point, we have 5 couples who made it past that 2 year mark and 4 of them have failed (Mary/Bryon, Charlie/Sarah, Kaitlyn/Shawn, and Kiptyn/Tenley). Only Jojo/Jordan remain and their future is TBD. I do think there's just something about this show in which you get to know each other super well really quickly and you do all the things that normal couples take years to do in the first 4 months (meet the parents, engagement, move in together); I think it makes you realize more quickly than normal if the person is "the one". And I think a lot of times people don't realize that, but don't want to admit it and think things will change, because of the outside pressure and the benefits of being a successful couple. And that's why there's such a long drag out period, where nothing is happening.

IMO.

@AllAboutLove,
IMO, The data is skewed because BN couples who aren’t getting married don’t generally last two or more years. Most break up sooner. I haven’t always watched. Aside from Kaitlyn, who broke up after two or more years together?

Chgohighlife wrote:@AllAboutLove,
IMO, The data is skewed because BN couples who aren’t getting married don’t generally last two or more years. Most break up sooner. I haven’t always watched. Aside from Kaitlyn, who broke up after two or more years together?

I posted before, Mary and Byron were together for 5 years and broke up and @Aria added to that list with other examples. So the data is absolutely indicative of couples who do not have a set date/plans in motion = no marriage. One can even add those who have been together a year or more like Ben/Lauren and same thing. No set plans = no marriage.

Statistically speaking, there are zero couples who in the past have been together more than a year with no set date/plans in motion who got married. Could some couple be an exception in the future? Of course. But that hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening. Whether a couple breaks up before the finale or stays together 5 years then breaks up, both are considered failures and not a success by the show - only marriages are "success" per the show.

AllAboutLove wrote:I posted before, Mary and Byron were together for 5 years and broke up. Adding to that, Charlie/Sarah were together two years, broke up, then got back together for another two years then called it quits. For those together over a year and broke up Ben/Lauren.

Charlie and Sarah were never engaged in their five years off and on, so getting married wasn’t even on the table. I see your point of reference though and agree to disagree.

I understand the point of their being statistical evidence to prove that most couples marry under the two year period. In statistics as well there are outliers. And therefore, as was acknowledged before, they are exceptions to the rule - with all statistics. I also want to state, as we can all agree, not everything that happens with a couple is posted on SM. Yes, social media has been a very accurate indicator of impending breakups. However, SM does not tell us everything. Can it just be that with some couples who are more private than others, they don't share everything on SM? Inclusive of wedding plans? Also, what is considered as wedding plans? Is it just a concrete date or can it also include discussions of wedding venues, invitees etc.? What if there are couples like R&B who have been throwing out possible venues. Isn't that also indicative of some sort of wedding plans? It could just be that some couples have not announced a date yet because while they may have everything else planned, they are waiting to secure a venue? Sometimes you have to book a year in advance to secure a venue. So maybe they are just waiting to get final confirmation on that, and also they want to send out invites to guests prior to annoucing it to the world?

I said all that to say, sometimes there is active planning taking place in the background - off of SM. And for some reason or another, they are waiting to announce it publicly for the world to know. Also, I don't subscribe to the view that unless there's a wedding date, then they are not actively planning. Sometimes the date could be the last detail to sort out.

I think wedding plans is setting a date/finding a venue, because those are the two big things that aren't just vague ideas and show that you're committed to making this wedding happen. Lauren/Arie and Jared/Ashley did that immediately. Everything else doesn't really count, because you can't even book anyone without a date/venue so they're just vague ideas that don't involve any real commitment. And dress shopping doesn't count because most of these stars get to do fun partnerships with top designers without losing any money, just like Kaitlyn did that whole thing with Hayley Paige.  

I agree that there are always outliers in trends and I wouldn't be surprised if we did eventually have a couple make it who wasn't married by the 18 month mark...but I also think it's justifiable for people to be skeptical because we have 16 years of history indicating that there is good reason to be. 

IMO.

Changing the subject, but did anyone else notice that Jesse Palmer is hosting the Food Network Holiday Bake-off? Maybe it was a rerun from last year but was flipping through the channels and saw him. It didn't seem like a natural environment for him!

Aria wrote:I think wedding plans is setting a date/finding a venue, because those are the two big things that aren't just vague ideas and show that you're committed to making this wedding happen. Lauren/Arie and Jared/Ashley did that immediately. Everything else doesn't really count, because you can't even book anyone without a date/venue so they're just vague ideas that don't involve any real commitment. And dress shopping doesn't count because most of these stars get to do fun partnerships with top designers without losing any money, just like Kaitlyn did that whole thing with Hayley Paige.  

I agree that there are always outliers in trends and I wouldn't be surprised if we did eventually have a couple make it who wasn't married by the 18 month mark...but I also think it's justifiable for people to be skeptical because we have 16 years of history indicating that there is good reason to be. 

IMO.

Fair enough.

I will be interested to hear if any of these couples have hired a wedding planner and have made wedding plans independently from the Bachelor. I am not sure that very many of these couples would be that private about their information if they had it to give. What would actually be the harm in giving fans a time frame of them getting married if they actually were planning to the point of narrowing down a wedding date?

I also think it can be very easy for people to say -- well, I am hoping to have our wedding televised as an excuse for not moving forward. I don't think the Bachelor is offering a lot of televised Bachelor Franchise wedding spots anymore. It would be great if the Bachelor would offer to help couples after the show with things like couples counseling. I am sure that would never happen, though. The show remains popular enough whether couples get married or are successful at all or not. All JMO.