Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
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Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
Lucas15 wrote:I posted this earlier in another thread but I think it may deserve posting here as well. The background is that the data I had found about historical weather in and about Arlington and Lamont the day of the FRC showed it was foggy in the morning, breaking up and becoming cloudy and by about 2:30 PM was clear, staying clear until after sunset. And we also knew that we have a screencap (thanks to Litta123) of Whitney in a limo where we could see sun striking the seat and interior of the limo:
So we can deduce an approximate time when this picture had to have been taken - it was during a time of the day when the sun was out and the sky was clear - but that leaves open the question of where was the limo taking her - more specifically was she going to the FRC location in Lamont or was she being driven away from that location? I set about using some science to figure that out (the liability of being an engineer)!
Now we probably know that the sun isn't always directly overhead; in winter months it's in the southern sky and in the summer it's more overhead (the reverse is true for the southern hemisphere). If the sun is directly overhead at mid day it would be described as having a zenith of 90 degrees. If the sun was right on the horizon (as it could be if you go far enough north) its zenith would be 0 degrees. So I looked up (there are on-line calculators for this) to see what the zenith of the sun would be in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM and found out - it would be 73.2 degrees - basically in the southern sky.
We also know that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west and the convention for defining where it is along that path is to define an azimuth angle. Due east would be 90 degrees - right in the middle would be 180 degrees, and due west (right at sunset) would be 270 degrees. The azimuth of the sun in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM was 219.97 degrees. Basically in the western sky. Combining the zenith and the azimuth shows that the sun would be in the southwestern sky at that time of day on that date and in that location.
Once we know where the sun is we could calculate the angle of shadows it would create on objects on the ground - or at least we could get enough of an idea to know what direction the limo was headed. If the limo was headed west to east or north to south the sun would have been shining in the passenger's window of the limo and since Whitney was sitting on that side, her face would have been brightly illuminated. But that's not the case - her face is in shadow and the sun is coming in from the opposite side of the limo, so the limo has to be traveling east to west or south to north. In a post on this issue, Litta123 noticed that the telephone poles you can see through the rear window of the limo are on the drivers side and that fits the location of telephone poles on the road north to Lamont from Dubuque so I think there's a high degree of likelihood that this image of Whitney was taken on the way from Dubuque to Lamont (basically an east to west then south to north drive) and adding Litta123's analysis, was actually heading north towards Lamont from route 20 from Dubuque.
So a little bit of science and a good eye for detail suggest this image was taken when Whitney was on her way to the FRC in Lamont - rather than leaving it and heading back.
Wow!! Impressive. For non science people like me, it's a good thing you included a synopsis!! So you are thinking this was about 2:30 PM?
Do you happen to know what time the sun set that day in Lamont? Thanks!
"My goal in life is to be as good of a person as my dogs already think I am"
"God puts the right people in our lives when the timing is just right." - Jef
"Love is everything it's cracked up to be…It really is worth fighting for, being brave for, risking everything for" - Nick
"What I felt for you was greater than a moment" - Nick
"I knew I loved you right away & I didn't even know why" - Ben
"You're my person" - Lauren
nutty1- Posts : 17481
Join date : 2011-05-17
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
At least they don't have to worry about getting a sunset shot due to the FRC being inside.
sanlee088- Posts : 1754
Join date : 2014-03-19
Diana- Posts : 8591
Join date : 2011-03-23
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
and all that debate about if Becca's sunset shot was at the FRC or not.sanlee088 wrote:At least they don't have to worry about getting a sunset shot due to the FRC being inside.
Diana- Posts : 8591
Join date : 2011-03-23
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
I totally agree.clueless wrote:Other than RS (if you can even count him), is there anything solid that points to either girl as F1? I know there are all kinds of interpretations and opinions as to why each girl is F1 but I don't recall anything being posted that is strong evidence for either. I know that there are great sleuthers on this board, so I'm a little surprised that there is nothing yet.
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Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
lexforlife wrote:I totally agree.clueless wrote:Other than RS (if you can even count him), is there anything solid that points to either girl as F1? I know there are all kinds of interpretations and opinions as to why each girl is F1 but I don't recall anything being posted that is strong evidence for either. I know that there are great sleuthers on this board, so I'm a little surprised that there is nothing yet.
Well, there aren't any plane videos, Cheetos or colored string bracelets!! :cutesmile!:
"My goal in life is to be as good of a person as my dogs already think I am"
"God puts the right people in our lives when the timing is just right." - Jef
"Love is everything it's cracked up to be…It really is worth fighting for, being brave for, risking everything for" - Nick
"What I felt for you was greater than a moment" - Nick
"I knew I loved you right away & I didn't even know why" - Ben
"You're my person" - Lauren
nutty1- Posts : 17481
Join date : 2011-05-17
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
:cutesmile!: Ahhh, memories.if only the contestants can all give it away like that every season but eh, Nutty, even with all that solid proof, pple still sleuthed till the bitter end.
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Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
Lucas15 wrote:I posted this earlier in another thread but I think it may deserve posting here as well. The background is that the data I had found about historical weather in and about Arlington and Lamont the day of the FRC showed it was foggy in the morning, breaking up and becoming cloudy and by about 2:30 PM was clear, staying clear until after sunset. And we also knew that we have a screencap (thanks to Litta123) of Whitney in a limo where we could see sun striking the seat and interior of the limo:
So we can deduce an approximate time when this picture had to have been taken - it was during a time of the day when the sun was out and the sky was clear - but that leaves open the question of where was the limo taking her - more specifically was she going to the FRC location in Lamont or was she being driven away from that location? I set about using some science to figure that out (the liability of being an engineer)!
Now we probably know that the sun isn't always directly overhead; in winter months it's in the southern sky and in the summer it's more overhead (the reverse is true for the southern hemisphere). If the sun is directly overhead at mid day it would be described as having a zenith of 90 degrees. If the sun was right on the horizon (as it could be if you go far enough north) its zenith would be 0 degrees. So I looked up (there are on-line calculators for this) to see what the zenith of the sun would be in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM and found out - it would be 73.2 degrees - basically in the southern sky.
We also know that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west and the convention for defining where it is along that path is to define an azimuth angle. Due east would be 90 degrees - right in the middle would be 180 degrees, and due west (right at sunset) would be 270 degrees. The azimuth of the sun in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM was 219.97 degrees. Basically in the western sky. Combining the zenith and the azimuth shows that the sun would be in the southwestern sky at that time of day on that date and in that location.
Once we know where the sun is we could calculate the angle of shadows it would create on objects on the ground - or at least we could get enough of an idea to know what direction the limo was headed. If the limo was headed west to east or north to south the sun would have been shining in the passenger's window of the limo and since Whitney was sitting on that side, her face would have been brightly illuminated. But that's not the case - her face is in shadow and the sun is coming in from the opposite side of the limo, so the limo has to be traveling east to west or south to north. In a post on this issue, Litta123 noticed that the telephone poles you can see through the rear window of the limo are on the drivers side and that fits the location of telephone poles on the road north to Lamont from Dubuque so I think there's a high degree of likelihood that this image of Whitney was taken on the way from Dubuque to Lamont (basically an east to west then south to north drive) and adding Litta123's analysis, was actually heading north towards Lamont from route 20 from Dubuque.
So a little bit of science and a good eye for detail suggest this image was taken when Whitney was on her way to the FRC in Lamont - rather than leaving it and heading back.
May I add a (possible) #unexpected twist to your analysis.
When I was taking caps I noticed this.
I thought the angle of the shadow might be somewhat helpful. I used Google maps and RS's location (thanks mura!) to determine the likely path of travel to the FRC.
I realized it's irrelevant what side of the road the phone poles are on...as they show up on both sides depending on where the car is. Using Google maps, the route most likely taken from Rt.20 W is Rt.187 N. From there one would head west on 30th St. The drive into the farm is south, but lined with trees...so not the road in the caps.
So the way I see it is that the car could be going in any direction -- north, west, south or east. It's important to remember these are true north-south, east-west roads. Let's use the sun's angle to figure out what's possible.
Case 1: Car is heading North. That would make the shadow point in the direction of NW, so the sun is coming from SE (POSSIBLE, but either early to mid morning due to the angle.) This is questionable since the weather indicates it was foggy for that morning...the shadow should not be that intense.
Case 2: Car is heading West. That would make the shadow point SW, so the sun is coming from the NE (NOT POSSIBLE).
Case 3: Car is heading South. That would make the shadow point SE, so the sun is coming from the NW (NOT POSSIBLE).
Case 4: Car is heading East. That would make the shadow point NE, so the sun is coming from the SW (POSSIBLE, but either mid to late afternoon due to the angle.) If the car is heading east at that time of the day it would be heading AWAY from the FRC. Who's car would that be? Whitney's? Aren't we saying she's the one coming at the end of the day? Does she end up leaving the FRC without Chris one way or another?
Did I make a mistake in my thinking?
Btw, we have another shadow cap from the original preview. Whose limo is this? It's a very different angle. Would it change that radically in the time from Dubuque to Lamont if it's the same girl?
Litta123- Posts : 3697
Join date : 2011-05-24
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
Would they actually would set up a shot like that with the girl really in the limo? The timing of that would have to be crazy perfect. I kind of think they may do that later.
lurker11- Posts : 709
Join date : 2014-10-11
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
nutty1 wrote:Wow!! Impressive. For non science people like me, it's a good thing you included a synopsis!! So you are thinking this was about 2:30 PM?
Do you happen to know what time the sun set that day in Lamont? Thanks!
Sunset for that entire area was 4:39 PM.
I'm thinking that the time this was taken was sometime after 2:30 PM because I don't think the sun was really out until then. The rear window of the limo shows blue sky so it had really cleared off as opposed to the sun just breaking through. I don't think it's near sunset as the sun would have been lower in the sky by then (azimuth angle) so maybe between 2:30 and 3:30 is likely.
Lucas15- Posts : 2809
Join date : 2011-06-20
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but I just got home and couldn't keep up at work. I can't wait to see what Becca is wearing. It looks like it is nice and warm and appropriate for the weather. Now Whitney's I'm not so sure and her arm looks like its in a sling. How is she going to wrap her arms around Chris? It's just my observation.
grammady- Posts : 38
Join date : 2015-02-26
Location : Minnesota
Re: Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion
grammady wrote:Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but I just got home and couldn't keep up at work. I can't wait to see what Becca is wearing. It looks like it is nice and warm and appropriate for the weather. Now Whitney's I'm not so sure and her arm looks like its in a sling. How is she going to wrap her arms around Chris? It's just my observation.
I'm sure she will be fine as long as she can get her legs around him
CarrieA- Posts : 3482
Join date : 2011-03-22
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