Bachelorette New Zealand - Season 1 - Dr Lesina Nakhid-Schuster - Lily McManus -F6 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers *

Discuss/sleuth F1-F6.

Pre-season airing:

Logan possible F1:
- he’s the one she’s kissing in the promo per his bicep tattoo. So only one shown with a kiss! So definitely sparks there!
- age-wise hes the most compatible imo also being 32
- has been more lowkey on IG
- I’d think he’d be F1 on paper as the best “fit”

Kurt possible F1:
- Kurt posting on his IG stories and very excited about the season.
- The only one (known so far) to do pre-season interviews (typical for first seasons where they want to establish the show and push the F1 and love story).
- featured most prominently in Woman’s Day magazine which is the official mag for the show (similar to F1 Sasha and F1 Lee were in WHO mag for Bette Oz). Both Lesina and Kurt posted the magazine clip and Lesina focused on the featured part about Kurt.
- seen at airport so possibly flying for SHV with Lesina. Would make sense to meet up when it’s known she won’t be in the country so could meet in Oz.
- featured by the official Bette nz in IG stories and tagged by TV NZ.
- in promo with Lesina reacting to Kurt with the reaction shot.
- age-wise, other than Logan and out of the other contestants pushed by the show, his age (30) most fits with Lesina (32). The others: Aaron (27), Jonathan (26) etc their ages are quite a bit younger than Lesina.

Aaron possible F1:
- first contestant posted by Bette NZ on IG
- took a long time to make his IG public but very excited too. Uploaded lots of posts on his IG stories talking about the show and excited.
- featured prominently in the season promo (on date with Lesina she looks happy)
- “looks” like the F1 type imo.
- con is that he called her Dr Lesina in his IG stories when saying to watch. Could be just respectful but F1 would call her Lesina imo.

Jonathan for possible F1:
- looks sad in promo (being let go?) or maybe misdirection
- seemed excited preseason
- young at age 26. I don’t see Lesina choosing someone that much younger than her regardless of how nice. Perhaps that’s why she’s shown looking sad after he looks sad.

A lot of these pros could be cons too (eg: Kurt too much pre-season). Will add more once the season airs. Edit and screencaps will say a lot.

AllAboutLove wrote:- also I believe he’s the one she’s kissing in the promo per his bicep tattoo.

@AllAboutLove that's Logan not Kurt - see SC thread.

@Bobette   I know. I was typing about Logan first and I copied and pasted what I had typed on Kurt elsewhere and it deleted and so it all looks like one post This is what happens when I multi-task

I’m looking out for Logan for sure despite possible first date since Carlin got that too so it’s not a disqualifier so much anymore imo.  Should be fun to sleuth it all with Screencaps etc. No Sportsbet yay!

@AllAboutLove I've got Logan pegged as F4 or F3 IMO - first date pretty much guarantees a HTD IMO but is also the kiss of death so far as F1s go (I'm not counting Carlin because IMO he wasn't intended to be F1 but let's not go there )

More dot points for Jonathan:

- Lesina was the first like on his IG post announcing he was on the show, which suggests she is watching his SM closely IMO

- He had his IG tags turned off and there are no tagged photos of him from pre-show (also seen with the AU F2 last season)

- Is one of only three contestants following the show sponsor, YouChoose (the others are Kurt and Marc)

- Is being presented as kind/softly spoken - exactly what Lesina said she wants (potential misdirection IMO)

- Shown in the promo looking like he's being let go, which often suggests the opposite (still not convinced he's F1 though)

- Heavily featured in the first promo (several shots including holding flowers to camera) and has been in almost all clips on IG


More dot points for Aaron:

- Had his IG private till right before he was announced and had to make it public; possibly a sign of being Top 2 IMO.

- First contestant released and was quoted in the IG caption, is being presented as more polished/refined that he seems IRL IMO.

- Following and being followed by an Argentinian silversmiths who also follows Lesina and no one else from the show

- Seems self-deprecating and slightly salty/hurt post show IMO so possible F2 or at least got more invested than he expected IMO.

I could see her liking Jonathan’s post as a friendly thing. I think she’ll be friends with many of her contestants similar to how Georgia was and Sam too. I don’t see her with someone 6 years younger. I can see him looking heartbroken because it’s a ruse or because that’s when he’s let go. For comparison, that’s how Richie/F3 was shown in Bette OZ S1 and it was when he was let go so it’s not always the opposite. Sometimes it’s exactly as it seems. Especially first seasons when they don’t edit too much like they do in later seasons. I don’t see her dragging him to F2 if he’s not the one so I see him being let go before then.

Yeah Aaron I am not sure. He’s liked her posts etc so it could be he’s doing that to look like the winner if he goes to F2 and isn’t F1.

One thing I am keeping in mind, is that it’s possible they may want to have a new Bachelor NZ from this season’s cast. So it could be those pushed and have good edits/media are contenders for next lead rather than F1. If Kurt isn't F1 it could be that he is a contender for them already. Same with Aaron etc.

It is interesting, because when the US version first started the tabloids would always spoil who was F1 before RS even was around. So, it's interesting to see how magazines are still doing something similar now in NZ!

@atem that is interesting Makes sense to do that for earlier seasons.   NZ did the same with the first season of the Bachelor NZ with Matilda and Art. Australia did that too before Sportsbet came around (and far more credible than RS). Will see how many clues are dropped by media for F1 and if they are accurate this season. So far I saw them ranking Kurt in the #1 spot so if he is then they are pushing that.

@AllAboutLove Jonathan seems absolutely smitten in all his IG posts about the show, and seems to be a bit of a puppy dog, so there's a chance he might get a clinger edit, which would rule him out of the Top 2 IMO. Episode 1 will set the scene. Not long now!

@Bobette agree! hopefully an extended season preview where we can sleuth and solidify F4.

Bringing this here since it ties into possible F1 sleuthing

AllAboutLove wrote:Okay I’m going back to these stats because I am not ruling out Aaron for F1 after seeing the first two episodes and the season Screencaps which he is in with another date for sure.

The men following Aaron first is a sign he could be F1. Definitely goes far based on what has been sleuthed of him. Him being private could be seen as him playing by the rules and not public so far. His social media he’s been excited about the show. He did call Lesina Dr Lesina and if he’d find love with her. He likes all her posts on the Bette NZ. So he seems happy. Also had a big premiere night watch party with his family. They filmed his reaction to things. It was adorable and he looked happy!!!!

For the IG post the Bette NZ posted quoting Aaron and finding true love.  I noticed that the show deleted the IG post of Aaron and his quote! Why do that unless they saw what you posted @Bobette and maybe giving too much away? They used the same thing about finding true love for Lesina’s preview before the season started.

Silversmiths! Could be because he has a date that involves jewelry or something? Maybe final FRChe gives her jewelry! It has to mean something that they’re both only the ones followed by the company.

Adding on from Episode 1: Aaron received the first rose at the rose ceremony. So definitely a frontrunner in Lesina’s mind imo.

So I will keep looking for clues and not rule Aaron out just yet.

Bobette wrote: Aaron is interesting to me because he's private, and a lot of the guys followed him first (even before Lesina in some cases).  Could just mean he was well liked in the house or may indicate he goes far.

ETA:  Having now seen his IG, I'm going with option A: well liked in the house.  

...snipped

They quote Aaron in the caption - that's interesting, no?  He looks so familiar to me!  Looks like someone but I can't place it.

Knowing the way TPTB works, I don't think F1 would be in the first lot so I'm thinking Jonathan for F2 and Aaron as a potential funny fan favourite - they seem to be foregrounding both of those guys at this stage.

Bobette wrote:IMO these silversmiths were involved with filming in Argentina.  They are following the Bette NZ IG account, plus Aaron and Lesina - but no other contestants from the show that I can see.       I'm guessing Aaron and Lesina will have a date involving silver.  



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Bobette wrote:OK @AllAboutLove so I think we're not the same page here - Aaron for F1 or riot.  

BUT, imma just quickly recap a couple of negative signs, to keep us grounded.

- Aaron was the first contestant posted on IG.  Would TPTB really blow their load so soon?  They usually release the F2 and/or Fan favourites first (and I could see Aaron being both).

- His IG was on private for a l o n g time preshow.  Could be taking instructions on what he's allowed to say, but also could be a protective/defensive measure if he got his heart broken.

- Lesina seemed very eager to tell Kurt she wanted to give him the FIR, and was keen to know his past relationship status.  The first chat we saw with Aaron seemed less personal IMO.

- I feel like there was probably a lot cut out between Lesina and Kurt, for her to be so keen on him.  Why bother with that if he's not F1?  And why so many "reactions" from him in ep 1?

- Also, Kurt was one of the last back on IG, so if not F1 then presumably he'd be F2 or F3, in which case why are there so few SCs of him in the preview?  He wouldn't be the first invisible F1.

Anyway this is the SC thread so I don't want to get O/T but yeah, food for thought.

@Bobette we're on the same page. Me being excited about a possibility is not the same as believing it so. 

I will sleuth everything, and honestly, I will be bored if I only stick with my Kurt=F1 pre-season stance, so I will look at other contestants, starting with Aaron.

To reiterate what I posted in Aaron's thread, yes, the stats, SM activity, media, etc all are pieces of the puzzle but I can't rule out anything. I am not so much focused on stats, edit, etc. Those can fit anything as there is precedent on other franchises for any scenario given for F1 (first date, media, pics on IG, etc). Screencaps are going to be the KEY for sleuthing a nonspoiled season (no RS, no sportsbet or betting agencies).

I think editwise, the edit set Kurt up for F1 and Aaron for possible F2 or F3. Aaron got the first rose at the first rose ceremony which is typical F1-like, and also VO of him and ITM as well as the show using his quote "true love" and the silversmith following only him and Lesina. Granted, all this can be F2 as well. But I do wonder why they'd have Aaron as F2 for a first season Bette when usually the fan favorite is in the F3 spot not the F2, so as the lead doesn't get backlash at FRC (so like SamF with Richie who she let go at F3). They usually don't post the F2 on IG for first Bette seasons (unless also posting the F1) when it comes to AU Bette. In this case, they posted ALL the men on IG, but image of Aaron first. Bette AU's first and earliest seasons they always posted the F1 (Lee was posted, not MattyJ). So a case can be made pro or con for anything SM related. There's no way to say the first season stats mean something specific unless 1) we're spoiled and know F1 or 2) seeing it through the lens of who is likely F1 based on past patterns (which is why I thought pre-season Kurt=F1, but the SCs need to support that completely). 

Season preview of Kurt with Lesina and being MIA is not at all typical for a first season F1. They usually show a lot of the F1 in season preview (for all seasons) and only hide them at the end of the preview. There's literally not one screencap of Kurt with Lesina  Every other F1 has always had at least their dates shown or them shown from other than night one in the season preview and then hidden in the end of that preview (FD or LCD is hidden usually). But there's nothing of Kurt. If it wasn't for pre-season media and first episode I'd think there's no way he is F1. So that means an extremely invisible F1 if it's Kurt. That would be totally new for a season preview, especially season 1. 

Out of the men shown in season preview, it's Logan that is the most quiet. Makes me wonder if he is F2. He has the screencaps to show he potentially goes far. I can't remember when he got back on SM? Quinn got FIR but is also MIA and not seen anywhere. 

My eye is still on Kurt, Aaron, and Logan. Jonathan, no matter when he leaves is not a real contender imo. He is there for the "sweet" friendzoned role (she can kiss him etc, it still won't matter imo).