DWTS - Season 28 - Episodes - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

I think we are stuck with Sean until the end based on how he is being promoted by political figures/family on twitter and by his own choice.  Per interviews, he knows he is scoring low but won't step aside because he owes it to his voters.  It is a stuck cycle and we will possibly have a repeat of last year.  We have some great dancers in the competition this year and some of the cast members have greatly improved due to their hard work.   It is so disappointing to see two good dancers compete for the judge's final choice to stay or go home.  

@HavaDrPepper do you mind re-posting the scoring/rating calculations you are discussing above?   It would be interesting to read. TIA.

@MiniDiva

It is something I read on reddit about how an international version of the show is scored.  Essentially they give each person a ranking for their judges' scores.  For example last night with 7 people left in the competition, James would have received a "7" and so on until the lowest scorer (Sean) receiving a 1.  In my "test" when there are more than one person with the same score, I add up the places for those positions and divide by the number of places affected.  Last night had 2 people tied at 30... 3rd/4th place. So I added the 5 + 4 and divided by 2 to give them each a 4.5 on the ranking scale.  Then comes the guessing part of the test... the voting.  This is also ranked from highest votes received to lowest.  The 2 rankings are then added together and the 2 lowest scores are your bottom 2.

I first calculated this out on week 6 which was the week Sailor went home.  In order for Sean to be safe that week, he had to have the highest number of votes.  Week 7 was the same result as was last night.  With this system, the actual judges' scores don't really matter for Sean. Give him all 1's or 6/7's, he is still in the bottom.

Here is my "test" from last night:

name - score - score rank - estimated vote rank - total
James - 32 - 7 - 4 - 11
Hannah - 31 - 6 - 5 - 11
Ally - 30 - 4.5 - 1 - 5.5
Kel - 30 - 4.5 - 3 - 7.5
Kate - 26 - 3 - 2 - 5
Lauren - 24 - 2 - 6 - 8
Sean - 20 - 1 - 7 - 8

Lauren/Hannah IMO are interchangeable in the number of votes. I give the edge to Lauren because of the Bobby Bones connection.  James has had high enough scores that he has been safe even being in the middle of the pack on the number of votes he is getting.  I have Kel a step below James in the number of votes because had he been getting more votes the bottom 2 would have been different in week 6. Ally and Kate have been in the bottom 2 so that says they are not getting the votes.  The 3 places of votes that have to be what I think are the highest (Sean) and the 2 lowest (Ally/Kate).  the other 4 can be switched around and safety is still the result.

I know there is a gal on the pureDWTS blog that does a number calculations but I find this easier to understand.  Looking at it from a producer's standpoint, it would be easier to get the results quickly as well.  Once the votes are cut off, they have a total received per person and they can easily be ranked from highest to lowest. The scores would have already been ranked then just add the 2 numbers together and you have your results.  Quick calculation.

There actual calculations may be more involved than this but in my mind this made it much easier to figure out what is happening.  And, this is why I say Sean is not going anywhere anytime soon.

IMO the only thing that would change this is to give more weight to the judges' scores in the final result tally.  Haven't calculated it out but maybe 75% judges/25% votes would be better.  Just a thought.

@HavaDrPepper Thank you for all the work. All I know is Sean has overstayed his welcome.

@HavaDrPepper, thank you for that explanation again.

I do think that increasing the weight of the judges' scores is the way to go; however, that's assuming that DWTS survives after the worst dancer could possibly win (or even make it into the finals) after a season where the worst dancer DID indeed win. And what about the judges' scoring inconsistency and, IMO, bias toward some of the contestants? Also, TPTB need to address the fact that they effectively cut the west coast out of voting. (Please forgive my stream of consciousness in this paragraph.)

I am disappointed in myself for liking and watching this show but I do love to watch the dancing, especially James' and Hannah's dancing this season...

@Doats

I did another test going back and having each score counted individually along with the vote ranking.  For example, scores of 7-7-7 plus vote ranking of 7 = 28. Divide that by 4 to get an average score of 7.  I used the wikipedia scores and of course had to guess at how some people might have scored if they stayed longer (Mary, Sailor and Karamo).  Those weeks that had 2 dances added together were divided by 7. Last night would have been divided by 5... those that didn't get 2 points got 0 for that.  I even let the guest judge scores count in the calculations because her scores were pretty much in line with the judges. Sean was the only one she scored higher than the judges and it was only 1 point.

Again, just a test but IMO the eliminations would have been different.

Week 1/2 - Lamar/Ray in bottom 2; Lamar gone
Week 3 - didn't matter since Ray withdrew
Week 4 - Mary/Karamo in bottom 2; Mary gone
Week 5/6 - Sailor/Sean in bottom 2.......................SEAN WOULD HAVE BEEN GONE!
Week 7 - Sailor/Kate in bottom 2; Kate gone
Week 8 - Sailor/Karamo in bottom; Sailor gone

That would leave us with a top 6 of: James, Hannah, Ally, Lauren, Kel, and Karamo

Much better results, right?

The judges would definitely have to get better about their inconsistencies in judging and not let their bias come through (Ally anyone?) but in the long run, it is better than what they are doing now.  They need to go back to the old voting times which doesn't leave the west coast out of watching before voting.  Week 1 can be no elimination. The votes for week 1 would be the week 2 elimination. Each contestant would then be guaranteed to do at least 2 dances.  I understand why they are doing it like they are because they want real time eliminations and they no longer do the results show the next night. But it is unfair to the mountain and pacific time zones.

I honestly don't know why I'm even watching any more.  IMO, the early seasons were so much better because they focused on the dancing. No extra dancers on the floor, no props, no "messing about" like Len says.  Pure dancing.

HavaDrPepper wrote:
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IMO, the early seasons were so much better because they focused on the dancing. No extra dancers on the floor, no props, no "messing about" like Len says.  Pure dancing.

Bingo. Well said and these 2 sentences summed up my feelings exactly.

I feel the voting system this year favors dancers such as Sean. After all, most west coasters aren't getting their vote to count which means certain areas of the country might be carrying Sean through week to week.

Being a west coaster I am not happy with the "voting" method. My radical idea of change would be that NO fans judge the actual dancing part. Instead, fans could make their support known by voting during a specific time the day before or whatever. Those votes could be tallied and kept however secret they could until Monday night. The judges vote on the actual dancing ability/talent etc, and the fans vote on the popularity. The scores are combined and winners chosen. It may not be perfect, but it is more fair than the current system.

@HavaDrPepper  

Thank you for posting your detailed scoring information/theory.  You put a lot of thought into this process and I find it very interesting.   Thank you again!  

Your example from last night makes a lot of sense regarding the outcome.  I do like your idea of weighting the judges scores higher than the voting and focusing more on the actual dancing.  Also, it hasn't occurred to me that the lack of West Coast votes may be affecting the results.  

There are some great dancers on this season and I hope one of them will win.

Why didn't tptb change the formula as soon as it clicked how things were playing out??  Had they said the outcome was 50/50 audience/judges? Or just some combination??  My gosh, we do school science fair judging with greater foresight than that!  Soooo frustrating....

That's why Hannah should not take the winning thing so much to heart. Just do your best and have fun, girl.... Even if she wins, she still needs to feel deep down inside hershe did her best.... basing it off of votes when her beasties (incl myself) are voting even before she dances means/proves nothing ultimately. Just.have.fun..... Meet new people, learn new things, have something to tell your grandkids. Jmo

@Billysmom

I didn't think they ever said what the formula was but on wikipedia they do have the scoring procedure.  (I like my system better!)  It appears that the gal on the pureDWTS blog that does a "numbers post" uses the method outlined on wikipedia.  She has been pretty accurate in predicting who the next eliminated person would be usually giving 2 people as options so she has a good formula.

The scoring begins with the judges' marks. Each judge gives a numeric score from 1 to 10, for a total score of 3 to 30. The scoring was altered for the "all-star" season 15, during which judges could give scores at 1/2-point intervals from 0.5 to 10, for a total score of 1.5 to 30. When multiple performances are scored, only the cumulative total counts. The contestants' judges' shares are calculated as the percentage of the total number of points awarded to all contestants that evening. (For example, if a team earned 20 pts on a night when the judges awarded 200 pts, their judges' share would be 20/200 = 10%.) This percentage is then added to the percentage of North American votes received by each contestant. The lowest-scoring two couples are identified at the end of the show, and the couple with the lowest combined total gets eliminated.^[15] Season 8 added an occasional 'dance-off', in which contestants could re-perform one of their dances, in an effort to improve their judges' score. This was later discontinued.


The footnote in that blurb was to a page on abc.com that is no longer available!  


They should have known this voting system would have problems way back in season 2.  Master P was on 4 weeks, always having the lowest score.  They ended up scoring him with an "8" the week he finally went home. The judges were quite vocal about him outlasting Tatum O'Neal and Giselle Fernandez.  That was also the season that Jerry Rice was the runner-up.  He received scores no higher than 24 through the first 7 weeks (bottom scores in weeks 6 and 7). He was in the range of 19 to 24 during those weeks.  Even in the finals he received 26-27-27.  Fan vote got him to 2nd place over Stacy Kiebler. Lisa Rinna was 4th.  Stacy's average for the season was 27.7 (tied with Drew Lachey, the winner). Lisa's average was 24.4.  Jerry's was 23.1.

Norcalgal wrote:I feel the voting system this year favors dancers such as Sean. After all, most west coasters aren't getting their vote to count which means certain areas of the country might be carrying Sean through week to week.

This is exactly my thought early on when I heard he was cast and West coast weren't able to view and vote. I was suspicious from the beginning. JMHO. I knew he would go far, and I wouldn't doubt it one bit if he wins, and if West coast next season will be able to vote as in previous seasons. aka James Hinchcliffe Canadian Race Car Driver when they took away the ability for Canadians to vote, but then changed it for the next season.