Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Media SM - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:Highly unlikely any of these three can be F1 or even F2 now, IMO.  

Who will win Matt’s heart? We’ve got your rundown of the 5 fabulous ladies revealed so far. #TheBachelorAU https://t.co/kuQw6w6mai

— The Bachelor Australia (@TheBachelorAU) July 10, 2019

Source

WAY TOO MUCH PROMOTION! [/url]

Every season there’s a ton of promotion regarding the F4. This is no different. Imo it won’t be surprising at all if one of these women are F1.

@AllAboutLove the main thing against Chelsie is that she had a blip on Insta around May 20, and FRC was around May 26

Also have just watched the video of Rachael arriving, and people in the comments are saying that she's just like Jess from MAFS. I certainly don't consider that a compliment, as Jess is one of the more vapid famewh0res that have appeared on our screens recently, but I'm sure Rachael will be delighted 

AllAboutLove wrote:It wouldn’t surprise me if Chelsea is F1 (unless there’s evidence to support she was out before finale was filmed?). Their red carpet Meet and Greet they had chemistry and I think her age is well suited for Matt as well. If not F1, it won’t surprise me if she goes far.

I do think this season will be super obvious a love story. TPTB said they wanted to reboot and return to how it used to be so I could see it pushed more like a first season.

I didn't sleuth Tim's season but I do recall being sure Ali had it in the bag, because there was so much attention was on her at the start (oh how naiive I was).  For this much attention to be on Chelsea pre-show if she is F1 would be unprecedented, IMO.

@Dirty Street Pie that’s something to consider but Alex was F1 and had social media activity while filming was underway. Laura has too (said it was her sister). Unless there’s tagged photos of her being home it’s hard to say from social media activity alone (unless there’s consistent activity). I do think that at least one of those women are in F4 and that’s not unprecedented at all is what I was saying, that’s it common for women in the F4 to be released pre-season with heavy promotion.

@Bobette I don’t think there’s that much emphasis on Chelsea compared to past women pre-season. No more than SamF, Snez, Alex, or Laura. It’s not like Chelsea was the first revealed the way that Snez was with Sam Wood’s season. There was a ton of emphasis on Laura too and many articles of the winner being known and Matty has slipped it. He basically gave it away he chose Laura. I’ll have to watch Matt and his interviews to see but I can’t rule out any of the women just yet.  

I’m not sure yet on F1, but I won’t be surprised if it’s one of the women that have been released so far.
Do we know if there are intruders this year or it’s like Tim and Matty J’s season with no intruders?

Isn't the pattern usually 2 women who have been featured heavily in promotion? And then 2 women who have been kept low-key or hidden?

My bet is Chelsie and Helena are in the F4 while Sogand and Kristen aren't.

AllAboutLove wrote:@Dirty Street Pie that’s something to consider but Alex was F1 and had social media activity while filming was underway. Laura has too (said it was her sister). Unless there’s tagged photos of her being home it’s hard to say from social media activity alone (unless there’s consistent activity).

@Bobette I don’t think there’s that much emphasis on Chelsea compared to past women pre-season. No more than SamF, Snez, Alex, or Laura. It’s not like Chelsea was the first revealed the way that Snez was with Sam Wood’s season. There was a ton of emphasis on Laura too and many articles of the winner being known and Matty has slipped it. He basically gave it away he chose Laura. I’ll have to watch Matt and his interviews to see but I can’t rule out any of the women just yet.  

I’m not sure yet on F1, but I won’t be surprised if it’s one of the women that have been released so far.
Do we know if there are intruders this year or it’s like Tim and Matty J’s season with no intruders?

Laura wasn't tweeted pre-show though. Alex was, but all the other tweeted girls for recent seasons were either F3 or out of the top 4 entirely.  Even in Nick's season, Brooke (F3) was the only one of the Top 4 tweeted preshow.

There were loads of preshow articles claiming Laura won, but TPTB literally went to court to try to get an injunction stopping the paps who took pictures of the FRC from selling them to the betting agencies and media outlets.  

For them to now be supposedly giving Sportsbet Chelsea's name, posting her on IG, Tweeting a "Meet Chelsea" tweet and an extended/solo scene of her meeting Matt just seems like WAY too much emphasis to me, if she's F1.

olive54321 wrote:Isn't the pattern usually 2 women who have been featured heavily in promotion? And then 2 women who have been kept low-key or hidden?

My bet is Chelsie and Helena are in the F4 while Sogand and Kristen aren't.

From the past 3 seasons the stats has usually been only one of the Tweeted girls make it into the top 4, with F3 always tweeted first.  Alex also got a tweet during Richie's season, which was the only other year they tweeted 5 girls.

Bobette wrote: In chronological tweeted order from first to last:

Matty:
Tara F3
Leah 
Elora
Cobie

Nick:
Brooke F3
Cass
Vanessa
Dasha

Richie:
Olena F3
Megan
Janey
Alex F1
Keira

I agree Helena and Chelsea are likely in the top 4 IMO but Abbie could be F3 if the "first tweet" pattern holds up.  Seems unlikely to me they would Tweet 3 of the top 4 so Abbie may go earlier and the pattern will be broken.

Helena might also go out earlier but we had that photo of them on a date right before hometowns, and her Mum mentioned a roller coaster ride which suggests getting a hometown but then things not proceeding, IMO. 

Chelsea's SM activity suggests she makes it to the 4 but not necessarily top 2.  And yes, Sogand and Kristen both out of the Top 4 IMO with Sogand to go first maybe as early as F7 and Kristen possibly a walker at F5.

@Bobette just to throw a spanner in the works . If we go by the year they tweeted five girls out and follow that same pattern, that would mean Abbie is F3 and Chelsie is F1. Abbie was tweeted first and Chelsie was tweeted second to last.

Edit: And if we go by the pattern of F2 being relatively hidden and quiet from press, Feathers or Marshmallows or Burgundy dress would fit that too.

olive54321 wrote:@Bobette just to throw a spanner in the works . If we go by the year they tweeted five girls out and follow that same pattern, that would mean Abbie is F3 and Chelsie is F1. Abbie was tweeted first and Chelsea was tweeted second to last.

Yeah don't think I didn't notice the 5 tweet = F1 included factor.  

Middle of last week I was pretty sure Chelsea was F1 because the first promo had just a hint of her walking off and saying how excited she was that Matt was smart.  Also there were the "missing" pics of her meeting Matt night 1.  

But then BAM we got hit with a tsunami of promotion for her - both official TPTB tweets/bios/IG posts AND media articles saying she wins AND Sportsbet openly saying TPTB told them she's the winner?!  It's just all way too much, IMO.  

And if Sportsbet know it's Chelsea, why not give her "normal" F1 odds (usually around 2.0 with $25 max bet)?  Instead they started her at 3.0 (which is exactly what they had for Luke during Sophie's season) and a HUGE max bet.

It's just not adding up, for me.  

@Bobette Good points! I keep going back and forth. The following expresses my sentiments about the season: I wouldn't be surprised  if F1 was in the group of 5 just tweeted out, but I also wouldn't be surprised if F1 has been hidden from us thus far.  

Edit: I'm correcting myself. Chelsie is introduced second to last on instagram, but she was tweeted last on twitter after Kristen.

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:@Dirty Street Pie that’s something to consider but Alex was F1 and had social media activity while filming was underway. Laura has too (said it was her sister). Unless there’s tagged photos of her being home it’s hard to say from social media activity alone (unless there’s consistent activity).

@Bobette I don’t think there’s that much emphasis on Chelsea compared to past women pre-season. No more than SamF, Snez, Alex, or Laura. It’s not like Chelsea was the first revealed the way that Snez was with Sam Wood’s season. There was a ton of emphasis on Laura too and many articles of the winner being known and Matty has slipped it. He basically gave it away he chose Laura. I’ll have to watch Matt and his interviews to see but I can’t rule out any of the women just yet.  

I’m not sure yet on F1, but I won’t be surprised if it’s one of the women that have been released so far.
Do we know if there are intruders this year or it’s like Tim and Matty J’s season with no intruders?

Laura wasn't tweeted pre-show though. Alex was, but all the other tweeted girls for recent seasons were either F3 or out of the top 4 entirely.  Even in Nick's season, Brooke (F3) was the only one of the Top 4 tweeted preshow.

There were loads of preshow articles claiming Laura won, but TPTB literally went to court to try to get an injunction stopping the paps who took pictures of the FRC from selling them to the betting agencies and media outlets.  

For them to now be supposedly giving Sportsbet Chelsea's name, posting her on IG, Tweeting a "Meet Chelsea" tweet and an extended/solo scene of her meeting Matt just seems like WAY too much emphasis to me, if she's F1.

I think of it holistically. Not just about twitter. All SM. All media articles. All bts pics while filming. How Laura was posted by media while filming was ongoing soooo much. It seemed like Confidential had inside scoop that Laura was the front runner and made a point to post about her. It seems like more than coincidence that the women posted about on their dates this season are ones to watch. Chelsea hasn’t seemed to be posted on her dates which maybe is why they’re pushing her so much now? Even when looking at Snez who was the first one posted about they never posted about her dates while filming was ongoing like they did Laura etc. So maybe it’s strategic to balance it out? Not sure but not ruling out anything yet.

I do think for sure that if there’s no intruders then the F1 is from the women already promoted.

AllAboutLove wrote:

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:@Dirty Street Pie that’s something to consider but Alex was F1 and had social media activity while filming was underway. Laura has too (said it was her sister). Unless there’s tagged photos of her being home it’s hard to say from social media activity alone (unless there’s consistent activity).

@Bobette I don’t think there’s that much emphasis on Chelsea compared to past women pre-season. No more than SamF, Snez, Alex, or Laura. It’s not like Chelsea was the first revealed the way that Snez was with Sam Wood’s season. There was a ton of emphasis on Laura too and many articles of the winner being known and Matty has slipped it. He basically gave it away he chose Laura. I’ll have to watch Matt and his interviews to see but I can’t rule out any of the women just yet.  

I’m not sure yet on F1, but I won’t be surprised if it’s one of the women that have been released so far.
Do we know if there are intruders this year or it’s like Tim and Matty J’s season with no intruders?

Laura wasn't tweeted pre-show though. Alex was, but all the other tweeted girls for recent seasons were either F3 or out of the top 4 entirely.  Even in Nick's season, Brooke (F3) was the only one of the Top 4 tweeted preshow.

There were loads of preshow articles claiming Laura won, but TPTB literally went to court to try to get an injunction stopping the paps who took pictures of the FRC from selling them to the betting agencies and media outlets.  

For them to now be supposedly giving Sportsbet Chelsea's name, posting her on IG, Tweeting a "Meet Chelsea" tweet and an extended/solo scene of her meeting Matt just seems like WAY too much emphasis to me, if she's F1.

Yeah it’s definitely a lot for a pre-season F1. But then I think of it holistically. Not just about twitter. How Laura was posted by media while filming was ongoing soooo much. It seemed like Confidential had inside scoop that Laura was the front runner. It seems like more than coincidence that the women posted about on their dates this season are ones to watch. Chelsea hasn’t seemed to be posted on her dates which maybe is why they’re pushing her so much now? Even when looking at Snez who was the first one posted about they never posted about her dates while filming was ongoing like they did Laura etc. So maybe it’s strategic to balance it out? Not sure but not ruling out anything yet.

I do think for sure that if there’s no intruders then the F1 is from the women already promoted.

Yes, exactly.  I literally only just stopped putting (?) after Chelsea's name because I wasn't even sure we had the right girl.  There were no pics of her on a single date, no pap pics of her meeting Matt (only a few backstage where you couldn't really see her face).  @Agent99 did an amazing job finding her with so little to go on.  

Her name was only mentioned in one pre-show article and that was when DM were doing that thing where they wait till we've found a few girls and then do a "first look at the girls vying for Matt's heart" article, and even then they just said she was "rumoured" and ripped off one of the Facebook pics @Agent99 posted here.

Chelsea was a ghost throughout filming.  Certainly very different to Laura, IMO.