Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Media SM - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

@Zaynab @Bobette @olive54321 @HannahBanana pop over to the betting thread to check out @Enough 's post, I think I missed a step in working out the odds, and only looked at the maximum payout, without considering the difference between the money that is put on in the first place, and what is paid out. If you look at it that way they are all around $100, so I think that the winner doesn't have to have black hair 

Dirty Street Pie wrote:@Zaynab @Bobette @olive54321 @HannahBanana pop over to the betting thread to check out @Enough 's post, I think I missed a step in working out the odds, and only looked at the maximum payout, without considering the difference between the money that is put on in the first place, and what is paid out. If you look at it that way they are all around $100, so I think that the winner doesn't have to have black hair 

Going to have a look now @Dirty Street Pie - if so I would be extremely pleased with your missed step because I just don't see it with any of the black haired girls and this opens up the possibility for chemistry-laden Ruffles to be F1 again...

HannahBanana wrote:@olive54321 @Bobette LOL, she's still looking super young to me! Funny how we can interpret a face differently. Correct me if I'm wrong - it's still the girl in the black and white stripped top from the group date, right?

https://i.servimg.com/u/f80/20/08/73/70/hdsluq10.jpg

@bobette, that link doesn't seem to be taking me to a video it just takes me to the Diimex stock list. Is there a key word I can search to find it?

Yes for the video just type in "matt agnew" as a search term. And yes that is the same girl on the group date You could be right that she's young.  For me the headdress is the main thing working against her.  F1s don't usually need props/gimmicks.

@Bobette said: "TBH, the first thing that came to my mind when I found out about the black hair factor was "I wonder if they head hunted some super hot Asian mathematician".

I said way back when Matt was first announced as Bach that he would go for brains over boobs!

Norcalgal wrote: @Bobette said: "TBH, the first thing that came to my mind when I found out about the black hair factor was "I wonder if they head hunted some super hot Asian mathematician".

I said way back when Matt was first announced as Bach that he would go for brains over boobs!

I would just love it so much. Nerds are a tragically under-represented group on Australian television IMO. #nerdpride  

Adding that although we messed up the initial calculations (clearly I am not myself a hot Asian mathematician ) the Sportsbet payout figures are still predicting a black haired winner, albeit only just:

Bobette wrote:Yes that's right - age/state/hair colour is not usually a huge giveaway, which is why I was so shocked about the apparent overwhelming evidence for black hair!  It makes sense for the figures to be tighter at this stage than we previously calculated.

HOWEVER!  It is worth noting that even though the difference between the payout figures is now less, black hair and NSW/VIC are still the lowest max loss, as per @Enough 's post.  And blonde still the least likely winning colour, along with brunette.  

So even though our miscalculations exaggerated the margin, Sportsbet are, technically, still predicting a black haired winner from NSW or VIC, and in past seasons, these categories have always proven to be accurate when compared to the winner.

Enough wrote: Correct me if I am wrong. Based on the above max bets and winning:

Blonde    Sportsbet will lose $100($243 -$143)
Black       Sportsbet will lose $97.50
Brunette  Sportsbet will lose $98.90
Red           Sportsbet will lose $100

With the states where the F1 will come from, the min loss for Sportsbet is either Vic or NEW with $50 nett loss

I'm hoping that we're going to get  a new promo of some sort on Thursday this week. I'm pretty sure that we got the flying heart 2 Thursdays ago, and "I'm a Gemini" last Thursday, so maybe a more detailed promo, or a "meet Feathers" type one?

Dirty Street Pie wrote:I'm hoping that we're going to get  a new promo of some sort on Thursday this week. I'm pretty sure that we got the flying heart 2 Thursdays ago, and "I'm a Gemini" last Thursday, so maybe a more detailed promo, or a "meet Feathers" type one?

The first TV promos usually foreground the b*tches/weirdos I think?  So maybe a bit of wedding dress or a dash of yoga  

I'm hanging on the first tweet to see if she's a viable F3 We really need some new material to work with - anything!

@Agent99 found potential match for White Crochet - interested parties, have a look here and tell us what you think.  

If we've got the right girls, I'm going with Helena (?) F2 and Chelsea (?) F3, and am expecting the first "meet" Tweet to be Chelsea (?).  Ruffles I think could either be F1 or F4/5 depending on whether that first night chemistry followed through.

Sportsbet, DM's choice of video thumbnail and that pre-season article touting diversity are still making me think Feathers could be F1 but I'm far from 100% and if not F1 then may go mid-season IMO.  Lastly I'd have Sogand rounding out the Top 4/5.

A black haired intruder would be my wildcard for F1, but in a "back to basics" season I think that's probably unlikely.  

What's everyone else thinking?

@Bobette I agree with pretty much your whole assessment. I do think that Blue Sequins could also be F1 if we are still going by Sportsbet's max loss theory. She'd be a shocker of an F1 to me because they seemed so stiff with each on night one, but I'm not ruling anything out yet.

@olive54321 Yeah I just don't know if Sequins could be classed as black hair having seen the other night 1 pics - IMO in daylight her hair would be even lighter/redder.  

IMO the only "true black" haired girls (that we know of are) are Feathers, Sogand, Vakoo and Cassandra.  Really wish we could find Feathers to see if she's a viable F1.  

@Agent99 if you can find her (or Ruffles) I will kiss your electronic footprints.  

Bobette wrote:If we've got the right girls, I'm going with Helena (?) F2 and Chelsea (?) F3, and am expecting the first "meet" Tweet to be Chelsea (?).  Ruffles I think could either be F1 or F4/5 depending on whether that first night chemistry followed through.

Sportsbet, DM's choice of video thumbnail and that pre-season article touting diversity are still making me think Feathers could be F1 but I'm far from 100% and if not F1 then may go mid-season IMO.  Lastly I'd have Sogand rounding out the Top 4/5.

I think this is a pretty succinct summary.

Also agree with not being fully convinced re: Feathers due to reasons others have stated. I really want to be though - it would interesting/wonderful to have Feathers be the girl Matt chooses as she looks like a sweetheart/a lot of fun. Also, can you imagine how happy Channel 10 would be about it? Look at that, we're totally diverse!

Which is why the lack of pap pictures in general has confused me. This is the first year I've sleuthed prior to the show starting, so I don't pretend I know what it's like to promote a show like this... but I think leaking a photo of Matt and Feathers on a one on one would have created a wonderful and different buzz for the show. She's different to the girls they've cast before, just as Matt is a different Bachelor to what we usually see - it's something new and interesting injected into an almost 7 year old franchise. Plus a woman of colour going deep and not just being a token first rounder would help stifle some of the criticism they've been getting for years.

(ETA - I forgot about Brooke on Nick's season. I was out of the country for most of his season so sometimes I forget about what happened - well, except for the end of course but my point still stands! one girl does not make diversity channel 10!)

Or maybe I'm just cross and DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY we haven't had much to go on this year.

olive54321 wrote:I do think that Blue Sequins could also be F1 if we are still going by Sportsbet's max loss theory. She'd be a shocker of an F1 to me because they seemed so stiff with each on night one, but I'm not ruling anything out yet.

I think this is why I haven't given Sequins much thought. I really like Matt, and I'm pretty sure he's going to be my favourite Bachie ever - so I want to see SPARKS and all the happiness between him and F1. I want the show to make me love the idea of her as they've made me love the idea of Matt. So to get really nothing on her in the media so far and see a few possible awkward photos doesn't make me excited. Mind you that's a lot of pressure to put on two people meeting and the show hasn't started yet - so happy to be proven wrong  

Not sure if it's likely anymore, but I think I'm still on the intruder bandwagon    Why else have we had nothing released except a couple of single dates and ONE early-ish group date? (I've only skimmed through a little bit of Nicks, but they were releasing top 4 pics, etc prior to his season) Is it because they know F1 comes later? *puts tin foil hat on*

However to shoot down my own idea - people knew Lana and Stu were coming even before Sam and Sophie's seasons started, right?

@HannahBanana yes Stu was being touted in the media as the winner all through filming.  "The playboy publican" they were calling him.   Not sure about Lana (I wasn't sleuthing back then - just mindlessly watching the show on TV like a regular schlub ).