Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #2

Very interesting shake up from Sportsbet after the HTD episode.

Why is it interesting? Well pull up a sofa with a well placed throw and some cheese, and I will tell you.
Since the 29th Aug, the max loss for Sportsbet on Tara and Elise has hovered on $50, sometimes changing to a few dollars above or below this mark. Meanwhile Laura's max loss has gone between $35 at $40 during the same period of time.

This afternoon (following the HTD ep) sportsbet have increased the maximum amount you can place on Tara and Elise significantly, therefore, the maximum loss for sportsbet if either lady should win has also increased significantly. This change now sees a max loss for Elise of $137.10, and for Tara $300.

The last time we saw these kind of max losses for either lady, was the 25th of August. In fact, on the 25th of August the max loss for Elise was $137.10, and for tara $300...As in the exact same max losses we are seeing now.

Well thats great SugarAndSpice, but what does it all mean!? Well... August 25th was the day after Ep9 and 10... The episode where Tara gets her 2 SD, and Elise gets her 1 SD..... Do you see yet where I'm going with this??

I believe Sportsbet have just increased the maximum amount you can bet on Tara and Elise so they can capitalise on people betting for Tara and Elise to win. If sportsbet truly believe Laura to be F1 this is such a smart move! Back on Aug25th, the odds for tara and Elise improved (natural given they had dates that week, and the public would have been putting money on these ladies), but sportsbet kept a relatively high maximum betting amount (thus the max loss of $137.10 and $300). In doing so this encourages people to bet the maximum amount... and sportsbet rakes in the moooolah.

I mean it could all mean nothing, but I like the correlation


Source: Sportsbet

mercieme wrote:@Justme...good catch
I zoomed in on what Matty is holding and it looks like a song CD....the music tracks are listed at the back of it....whelp they cut that out so we have no idea which artist it was, couldn't be James Blunt right

I can't take credit for it, someone else spotted it first hmmmm James Blunt indeed. I watched the full song on tenplay last night. Such a sad song I cried and cried haha poor Elise.

SugarAndSpice wrote:Very interesting shake up from Sportsbet after the HTD episode.

Why is it interesting? Well pull up a sofa with a well placed throw and some cheese, and I will tell you.
Since the 29th Aug, the max loss for Sportsbet on Tara and Elise has hovered on $50, sometimes changing to a few dollars above or below this mark. Meanwhile Laura's max loss has gone between $35 at $40 during the same period of time.

This afternoon (following the HTD ep) sportsbet have increased the maximum amount you can place on Tara and Elise significantly, therefore, the maximum loss for sportsbet if either lady should win has also increased significantly. This change now sees a max loss for Elise of $137.10, and for Tara $300.

The last time we saw these kind of max losses for either lady, was the 25th of August. In fact, on the 25th of August the max loss for Elise was $137.10, and for tara $300...As in the exact same max losses we are seeing now.

Well thats great SugarAndSpice, but what does it all mean!? Well... August 25th was the day after Ep9 and 10... The episode where Tara gets her 2 SD, and Elise gets her 1 SD..... Do you see yet where I'm going with this??

I believe Sportsbet have just increased the maximum amount you can bet on Tara and Elise so they can capitalise on people betting for Tara and Elise to win. If sportsbet truly believe Laura to be F1 this is such a smart move! Back on Aug25th, the odds for tara and Elise improved (natural given they had dates that week, and the public would have been putting money on these ladies), but sportsbet kept a relatively high maximum betting amount (thus the max loss of $137.10 and $300). In doing so this encourages people to bet the maximum amount... and sportsbet rakes in the moooolah.

I mean it could all mean nothing, but I like the correlation


Source: Sportsbet

It should be completely illegal. They are completely taking advantage of people. They know the result and are manipulating the public to make more money. I'm going to write a complaint. They shouldn't be allowed to get away with that.

Justme wrote:

mercieme wrote:@Justme...good catch
I zoomed in on what Matty is holding and it looks like a song CD....the music tracks are listed at the back of it....whelp they cut that out so we have no idea which artist it was, couldn't be James Blunt right

I can't take credit for it, someone else spotted it first hmmmm James Blunt indeed. I watched the full song on tenplay last night. Such a sad song I cried and cried haha poor Elise.

What a mean thing to do to Elise - brutal IMO. He could have sung a happier song surely.

SugarAndSpice wrote:Very interesting shake up from Sportsbet after the HTD episode.

Why is it interesting? Well pull up a sofa with a well placed throw and some cheese, and I will tell you.
Since the 29th Aug, the max loss for Sportsbet on Tara and Elise has hovered on $50, sometimes changing to a few dollars above or below this mark. Meanwhile Laura's max loss has gone between $35 at $40 during the same period of time.

This afternoon (following the HTD ep) sportsbet have increased the maximum amount you can place on Tara and Elise significantly, therefore, the maximum loss for sportsbet if either lady should win has also increased significantly. This change now sees a max loss for Elise of $137.10, and for Tara $300.

The last time we saw these kind of max losses for either lady, was the 25th of August. In fact, on the 25th of August the max loss for Elise was $137.10, and for tara $300...As in the exact same max losses we are seeing now.

Well thats great SugarAndSpice, but what does it all mean!? Well... August 25th was the day after Ep9 and 10... The episode where Tara gets her 2 SD, and Elise gets her 1 SD..... Do you see yet where I'm going with this??

I believe Sportsbet have just increased the maximum amount you can bet on Tara and Elise so they can capitalise on people betting for Tara and Elise to win. If sportsbet truly believe Laura to be F1 this is such a smart move! Back on Aug25th, the odds for tara and Elise improved (natural given they had dates that week, and the public would have been putting money on these ladies), but sportsbet kept a relatively high maximum betting amount (thus the max loss of $137.10 and $300). In doing so this encourages people to bet the maximum amount... and sportsbet rakes in the moooolah.

I mean it could all mean nothing, but I like the correlation


Source: Sportsbet

I agree 100% with your analysis @SugarAndSpice.  I dread to think how much money people are throwing away due to their allegiance to their favourite girls.  I've said it before but I wonder if their source is TPTB themselves.  It's just all so dodgy.

Bobette wrote:

SugarAndSpice wrote:Very interesting shake up from Sportsbet after the HTD episode.

Why is it interesting? Well pull up a sofa with a well placed throw and some cheese, and I will tell you.
Since the 29th Aug, the max loss for Sportsbet on Tara and Elise has hovered on $50, sometimes changing to a few dollars above or below this mark. Meanwhile Laura's max loss has gone between $35 at $40 during the same period of time.

This afternoon (following the HTD ep) sportsbet have increased the maximum amount you can place on Tara and Elise significantly, therefore, the maximum loss for sportsbet if either lady should win has also increased significantly. This change now sees a max loss for Elise of $137.10, and for Tara $300.

The last time we saw these kind of max losses for either lady, was the 25th of August. In fact, on the 25th of August the max loss for Elise was $137.10, and for tara $300...As in the exact same max losses we are seeing now.

Well thats great SugarAndSpice, but what does it all mean!? Well... August 25th was the day after Ep9 and 10... The episode where Tara gets her 2 SD, and Elise gets her 1 SD..... Do you see yet where I'm going with this??

I believe Sportsbet have just increased the maximum amount you can bet on Tara and Elise so they can capitalise on people betting for Tara and Elise to win. If sportsbet truly believe Laura to be F1 this is such a smart move! Back on Aug25th, the odds for tara and Elise improved (natural given they had dates that week, and the public would have been putting money on these ladies), but sportsbet kept a relatively high maximum betting amount (thus the max loss of $137.10 and $300). In doing so this encourages people to bet the maximum amount... and sportsbet rakes in the moooolah.

I mean it could all mean nothing, but I like the correlation


Source: Sportsbet

I agree 100% with your analysis @SugarAndSpice.  I'd love to know how much they're making from all this.  

They'd certainly be making a quick buck, but throughout the whole season the maximum amount you have ever been able to place per contestant was $50. And for awhile there the maximum bet was capped at $10. So potential loss to gamblers are significantly capped. The only contestant to buck the trend is Laura. Sportsbet have allowed a maximum bet of $100 for the past few weeks for Laura. We shall see what this means after the FRC, if she is F1 it means Sportsbet were allowing people to increase their stake because they knew that the gamblers would win... if she is not F1 (and they knew the winner) then sportsbet were trying to make as much money as possible.

As a side note, given the outcome of the show has been decided before betting is even available, and sportsbet advertise that fact, it means the novelty betting (or the bookie) cannot sway the outcome (which would be illegal, aka match fixing). Where it get's mirky is the betting on the future prime minister, or the number 1 song for the Hottest 100. In both instances heavy betting can (theoretically) change the outcome of the event.. for example if people are heavily invested in a certain song winning Hottest 100, they will vote for that song to win. JMO

@SugarAndSpice can you help me in understanding something.....someone posted in IG(its posted here somewhere) about they know who wins and it is out of Elise and Laura. and they will make a lot of money from sportsbet. so to me that sounds like elise wins because they actually would make money on her is this correct???????????

I was just having another listen to the voicelines that we have left yet to hear from the season preview and am coming back to a thought I had at the very start of the season.

There are two that stand out to me:  
Matty: "I definitely didn't see this coming"; and
(we think) Elise: "I am in love with you"

The italicised "in" is significant IMO.  It sounds to me like it could be half a sentence.  What if Elise says something like "(I love you as a person, but after this short amount of time I just can't say) I am in love with you."  There's just something off about the way it's said IMO, with the emphasis on "in" - it's not a natural way to phrase it and Elise is very articulate so seems odd to me.

Crazy theory: What if Elise says this before the FRC and eliminates herself?  Matty says he "definitely didn't see it coming".  Elise looks like even more of a champion/role model for passing on a man if she's not feeling it 100%.  And it would leave Matty free to choose Laura (which IMO he was always going to) without having to dump the slow burn and make himself look like an a$$.  

In a season where so much has apparently been scripted, IMO this would be the perfect way for them to end things with everyone saving face.  I am also reminded of that interview the producer did where they said "we end in a different place to previous seasons, which will leave people wanting more".  

Originally I thought this was hinting at an engagement and/or televised wedding - and I'm still not counting that out because I think both of them would be up for it - but if Elise did eliminate herself what would certainly be an ending we haven't seen before, and the "wanting more" part could be Bachelorette 2018 (though I think that last part is less likely).

Anyway, just putting it out there.  Thoughts?

@LeapofFaith I saw that too and thought it interesting as you can't make much from Laura but maybe Tara? I don't know anything about gambling but definitely saw it.

LeapofFaith wrote:@SugarAndSpice can you help me in understanding something.....someone posted in IG(its posted here somewhere) about they know who wins and it is out of Elise and Laura. and they will make a lot of money from sportsbet.  so to me that sounds like elise wins because they actually would make money on her is this correct???????????

Well, depends on that users idea of "a lot of money". The absolute maximum that anyone can win on Elise is (currently) $325 profit - that is if the gambler placed a full bet of
$50 on the 23-Aug.
The maximum profit anyone can win from a bet on Laura is a $50 profit - again, only if they placed a maximum bet night one.

The one aspect that I am not 100% sure on is whether or not you can place multiple bets on the same contestant when the odds and max bet change. From my experience, last year some girls at work wanted to put $10 each on Matty J, using my account. But we couldnt because the max bet was capped at $10 so only one girl was able to place her money. Later when the max bet increased to $69 I was able to place the other bets, but the odds had changed, and their $10 was locked in under the new odds. Its possible that you might be able to bet the maximum bet available each time the odds change - meaning $50 on Elise when her odds are $4, then the next day, another $50 when her odds are $6. In which case, you would stand to lose/win a lot more money (I'd need to read into this though)

Bobette wrote:I was just having another listen to the voicelines that we have left yet to hear from the season preview and am coming back to a thought I had at the very start of the season.

There are two that stand out to me:  
Matty: "I definitely didn't see this coming"; and
(we think) Elise: "I am in love with you"

The italicised "in" is significant IMO.  It sounds to me like it could be half a sentence.  What if Elise says something like "(I love you as a person, but after this short amount of time I just can't say) I am in love with you."  There's just something off about the way it's said IMO, with the emphasis on "in" - it's not a natural way to phrase it and Elise is very articulate so seems odd to me.

Crazy theory: What if Elise says this before the FRC and eliminates herself?  Matty says he "definitely didn't see it coming".  Elise looks like even more of a champion/role model for passing on a man if she's not feeling it 100%.  And it would leave Matty free to choose Laura (which IMO he was always going to) without having to dump the slow burn and make himself look like an a$$.  

In a season where so much has apparently been scripted, IMO this would be the perfect way for them to end things with everyone saving face.  I am also reminded of that interview the producer did where they said "we end in a different place to previous seasons, which will leave people wanting more".  

Originally I thought this was hinting at an engagement and/or televised wedding - and I'm still not counting that out because I think both of them would be up for it - but if Elise did eliminate herself what would certainly be an ending we haven't seen before, and the "wanting more" part could be Bachelorette 2018 (though I think that last part is less likely).

Anyway, just putting it out there.  Thoughts?

YESS. Yes Yes yes and Yes! I would love that ending. Even better if it goes to the FRC, Elise steps out of the car first (viewers now know she is the F2), and before matty says anything, she breaks up with him. That way Laura wont be labelled F1 "by default" as I'm sure lots of viewers would comment on

Bobette wrote:I was just having another listen to the voicelines that we have left yet to hear from the season preview and am coming back to a thought I had at the very start of the season.

There are two that stand out to me:  
Matty: "I definitely didn't see this coming"; and
(we think) Elise: "I am in love with you"

The italicised "in" is significant IMO.  It sounds to me like it could be half a sentence.  What if Elise says something like "(I love you as a person, but after this short amount of time I just can't say) I am in love with you."  There's just something off about the way it's said IMO, with the emphasis on "in" - it's not a natural way to phrase it and Elise is very articulate so seems odd to me.

Crazy theory: What if Elise says this before the FRC and eliminates herself?  Matty says he "definitely didn't see it coming".  Elise looks like even more of a champion/role model for passing on a man if she's not feeling it 100%.  And it would leave Matty free to choose Laura (which IMO he was always going to) without having to dump the slow burn and make himself look like an a$$.  

In a season where so much has apparently been scripted, IMO this would be the perfect way for them to end things with everyone saving face.  I am also reminded of that interview the producer did where they said "we end in a different place to previous seasons, which will leave people wanting more".  

Originally I thought this was hinting at an engagement and/or televised wedding - and I'm still not counting that out because I think both of them would be up for it - but if Elise did eliminate herself what would certainly be an ending we haven't seen before, and the "wanting more" part could be Bachelorette 2018 (though I think that last part is less likely).

Anyway, just putting it out there.  Thoughts?

I am so here for this theory, I love it! That way Matty and Laura get their happy ending and Elise walks away looking like an absolute champion and hero for putting the ball in her court and taking back control! And tptb get a twist ending that people will talk about! Here. For. IT.