Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #2

Thread 2
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brownravens wrote:@ssin0547 IA I've been feeling that about their long term compatibility. I feel like if Laura wins its because she's the one Matty wanted to sleep with from the beginning (similar to Alex and richie IMO). I think the emotional connection may not last beyond the bach bubble. Even the banter on their SD was not particularly smooth nor did it establish that they had lots in common IMO.

BlueJeans wrote:I know I am firmly shipping Elise and Matty but I genuinely believe Elise is the most compatible for him and can see real longevity in their relationship if he picks her.

ssin0547 wrote:I think that's what i see with both Elise and Tara. I see longevity and smoother sailing. All JMO.

Dirty Street Pie wrote:

brownravens wrote:@ssin0547 IA I've been feeling that about their long term compatibility. I feel like if Laura wins its because she's the one Matty wanted to sleep with from the beginning (similar to Alex and richie IMO). I think the emotional connection may not last beyond the bach bubble. Even the banter on their SD was not particularly smooth nor did it establish that they had lots in common IMO.

Totally agree! Little Richie was firmly in control when Richie chose Alex, and Little Richie was not overly concerned with practicalities like children who already exist on the other side of the country, or potential future children, Little Richie just wanted Alex. And possibly Little Matty just wants Laura, but in the long term IMO, their lifestyles are not that compatible. She is a gypsy hippy, and he is a preppy Eastern suburbs boy with a nightmare of a sister.

Thank you @allaboutlove !

Maybe this is me just being optimistic but I think Matty is actually seriously considering the long term where as Richie didn't think of it at all. I think Matty has seen his sister and her husband and what they have, and I think he saw his Mum as a single Mum and what she went through to raise them that he legitimately is considering other factors apart from who he just wants to sleep with. I think his eyes are a bIt more open than what Richie's were. Well that's the impression that I get. He's thought more broadly about the process. All JMO. Just hoping he picks the person he is truly compatable with.

ssin0547 wrote:Maybe this is me just being optimistic but I think Matty is actually seriously considering the long term where as Richie didn't think of it at all. I think Matty has seen his sister and her husband and what they have, and I think he saw his Mum as a single Mum and what she went through to raise them that he legitimately is considering other factors apart from who he just wants to sleep with. I think his eyes are a bIt more open than what Richie's were. Well that's the impression that I get. He's thought more broadly about the process. All JMO. Just hoping he picks the person he is truly compatable with.

No I thought that about Matty too - I think he's actually giving more thought because he genuinely is interested in creating a family for himself. Not to say Little Matty might not over power his decision making but I felt like its a more considered approach similar to Tim.

Bobette wrote:I'm starting to feel a bit sorry for Laura. She really hasn't done anything wrong IMO, people are just loving Tara way more and the edit they're giving her (Georgia 2.0, pecking order) isn't helping things. Despite my personal favourites, I do think she'd be a good choice for Matty..

I'm feeling a bit bad for Laura too tbh. I've been a Laura fan from the start, but equally love Elise (gotta support my home state SA!) so if they are the final two I'll be happy either way for Matty. But I've been thinking about how if Laura is F1, she will likely get backlash because she doesn't seem to be very popular with the general public and people will think it's obvious. But if she's F2, she's had to deal with the public and the media constantly harassing her about how she's clearly won while she's quietly heartbroken. Would be very difficult to manage your social media from that position, harder than a regular F2 IMO. She's kinda in a lose-lose position and I blame the way she's been edited because I reckon she's probably pretty down to earth, she just hasn't been portrayed in that way. JMO

Schnitty4lyf wrote:

Bobette wrote:I'm starting to feel a bit sorry for Laura.  She really hasn't done anything wrong IMO, people are just loving Tara way more and the edit they're giving her (Georgia 2.0, pecking order) isn't helping things.  Despite my personal favourites, I do think she'd be a good choice for Matty..

I'm feeling a bit bad for Laura too tbh. I've been a Laura fan from the start, but equally love Elise (gotta support my home state SA!) so if they are the final two I'll be happy either way for Matty. But I've been thinking about how if Laura is F1, she will likely get backlash because she doesn't seem to be very popular with the general public and people will think it's obvious. But if she's F2, she's had to deal with the public and the media constantly harassing her about how she's clearly won while she's quietly heartbroken. Would be very difficult to manage your social media from that position, harder than a regular F2 IMO. She's kinda in a lose-lose position and I blame the way she's been edited because I reckon she's probably pretty down to earth, she just hasn't been portrayed in that way. JMO

ITA @Schnitty4lyf, the way this show is structured it ends up contrasting the contestants in such a way that it becomes very black and white - people are "Team Laura" or "Team Elise", when in reality we're all shades of grey - everyone has their good and bad points and it's dependant on the edit which sides of their personalities are emphasised to fit the story TPTB want to show, IMO.

@Bobette Absolutely! I think I'm too diplomatic for this show. Love both Laura and Elise, just like last year I loved both Matty and Lee. Guess I'm protecting myself so that I'm never heartbroken about the outcome! (although I did admittedly throw my remote at the TV in outrage when Matty stepped out of the limo first last year, hahaha... but I was happy for Lee two minutes later so it was all okay!)

I think when a contestant is spoiled to be F1 or a frontrunner SM audience along with edit can pull down that contestant and as such I know I can feel bad for that contestant just because of this. I think spoilers (especially Sportsbet) can play a big role in this and so sleuthing is very different to me (same thing for the US show with the spoilers from RS).

Last year, both Lee and Alex were disliked by majority of audience. I can imagine if knowing beforehand that they were both for certain the F1 that I'd have felt even worse for them considering how much hate they both got on SM/media. It was really something else. So far I don't see Laura anywhere close to that and is far better off imo, especially compared to Alex's edit and media/SM attacks on her. It was brutal.

That said, it's just the show imo and I'd be surprised if anything changes. For me personally, I always sleuth for F1 separately from what I watch for (a possible love story) and to be entertained at some level. So far this season has fallen short on the latter imo but I am still watching. For F1 I still think it's Laura but will keep sleuthing otherwise there's really no point to it imo especially if I think it's a done deal (I know I know, I've said it's a done deal many times but I sleuth for that .001% because it's not over till it's over and to keep myself engaged in the show ).

Latest odds with max loss - 28th Aug
Odds were discussed in another thread, but here are the max loss for sportsbet calculated as well. Interesting that Lisa, Elise, and Tara all share a loss of about ~$100. Also note, Laura's max bet has increased to $100 (from $50). In fact, all of the women's max bet has finally changed from $50


source: sportsbet

Laura max bet $100 (max loss for sportsbet = $35) --> max loss increased (from $16.5)
Lisa max bet $10 (max loss for sportsbet = $100) --> max loss decreased (from $700)
Elise max bet $40 (max loss for sportsbet = $100) --> max loss decreased (from $151.25)
Tara max bet $17 (max loss for sportsbet = $102) --> max loss decreased (from $300)

@SugarAndSpice  What do you make of Laura's max bet increasing to $100?  (I still have limited understanding of the odds!)


ETA: Also, just wondering whether you have compared Sportsbet's max bets/max loss with those of Ladbrokes?

https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/novelty/entertainment/33695744-the-bachelor/33695744-the-bachelor/

solaroo wrote:@SugarAndSpice  What do you make of Laura's max bet increasing to $100?  (I still have limited understanding of the odds!)

@solaroo At the moment, I don't make much of it. Compared to everyone else, the winnings for Laura (and consequently the loss for sportsbet) is still very small. There's a lot of psychological games when it comes to gambling. IMO increasing laura's max bet will entice people to increase their bet on her. At the same time, it might shake a few gamblers into making a "back up bid" on Elise/Tara for example. IMO the increase for Laura might seem counter intuitive (in that they stand to lose more money), but Bachelor betting is small fish for Sportsbet. At the end of the day, if they can entice people to keep coming to their site to check the max bet/odds then they increase traffic to their website, in turn increase potential investment from Sportsbet sponsors (not to mention get people invested in Sportsbet gambling, and place bigger, riskier bets on other events, like sport).

ETA: I haven't been comparing to Ladbrokes. I don't have an account with Ladbroke, so I don't know if they have a "max bet" in place, or at least, I can't monitor it like I can with my Sportsbet account (I try to limit how many gambling sites I'm a member of, currently thats limited to 1! )

@SugarAndSpice Thanks for all that, you're so good at this! Everything you say makes sense. Didn't realise you had to have an account with Sportsbet to see that extra info. Totally understand limiting your membership to a grand total of 1 site!