Bachelorette Canada - Season 1 - Jasmine Lorimer - F1-F2 - *Sleuthing - Spoilers*

@Joy15....what a legend you are. Analysis really well done dear . I have told you before....wish I had your patience to tease the edit apart

Thanks to GA, there is a stats thread so will put stats in there from both seasons of Bach Can and when this one is done, will put those stats there too....

Aunties_Love wrote:Thanks to GA, there is a stats thread so will put stats in there from both seasons of Bach Can and when this one is done, will put those stats there too....

Thanks @aunties_love for taking time to pull together the stats. It's helped me for one understand how Claire produces the CA franchise series so I really appreciate this.

Joy15 wrote:

Aunties_Love wrote:WOW, that was a ton of work @Joy15.  All of that makes a lot of sense.  Thankyou so much for laying that all out.  The stats, the editing......

@Aunties_Love...much appreciated! ....Ton of work is right   .Only hours to find out whether any of those will hold some significance in the scheme of the final outcome        #ThingsYouDoForThisLoveShow

@joy15 your are too good. Here is hoping it all goes as plan. I am on the Mikey 8 pack train with wabbly feet. 6 hrs to go and it can't come soon enough. Waiting with baited breath.

@Joy15

Great analysis! I remember reading in the Aussie Bette's thread an analysis you did about Lee being F1 - totally got that one right so well done.

But what stood out for me was your analysis of the profiles the guys did before the show and how Lee's was slightly different and words/phrases matched Georgia's. Have you done the same for Jasmine and her guys?

@reason 4 and a half hours left. Not that we're counting, right?

My best guess for tonight is no one goes home and all three go on fantasy dates. One leaves after. Another leaves morning of FRC and then she ends up with Mikey.

@casjacknick it is now 3hrs and 10 minutes. I just set my netbox to tape the show.

Yes @Joy15 great analysis!    So happy you were able to complete your posts you've been working on, and so interesting regarding the production and patterns. Can't wait until we finally get this episode and have some more answers. Hopefully some of the sleuthing we've tried to figure out will come together.   Time will tell.  

@Katiebelle This is actually something I've been working on putting together regarding the profiles. I will try to make a longer post later, but what really stood out for me is that Mike's bio and Jasmine's post-show comments intersected very clearly IMO.

This part of Mike's profile was particularly interesting to me:
"Now at 29-years old, Mike is looking for a partner who will be his best friend forever and commit to building a happy and successful future together. He always puts 100% into everything he does, and Mike wants the Bachelorette to know this experience will be no exception; once he decides to pursue something, he is unstoppable!"

Now comparing this to Jasmine post-show she has stated that she wanted "someone who can compromise and communicate and who understands what it takes to make a relationship last. That's really one of the main things I was looking for throughout this whole experience was someone who I really could see long-term potential with. That they were willing to put in that effort and be a partner."

Now of course this isn't to say that these things couldn't apply to other men, but I am most interested in how these qualities are highlighted specifically with Mike since I also see links to the narrative being told on the show. It's the combination of things IMO that is telling. I posted previously some connections that I found between specific comments from Jasmine about Mike on the show, and comments she has made regarding who she chose as F1. Here are some examples:

Jasmine: "I figured out I needed someone a little more grounded than me, because I can be scatterbrained and free spirited. I figured out what I needed for a strong, sustainable relationship."

Jasmine to Mike: "I genuinely can see a future with you and although you may be a little more regimented than me I think it's not necessarily a bad thing because sometimes personalities can use a little bit of balance from their partner. And I could see that being the case with us."

Jasmine: "I realized that these are the patterns I’ve been following and I can try to break out of it. Also, realizing what has kept me from having a relationship that is really long-lasting, or why have I been running away from that."

Jasmine to Mike: "Those same qualities that would make him such a great husband and great father are the things that I've always tried to stay away from. That kind of scares me because I've never had that security in my life, but it's what I want at the same time too."

Jasmine about Mike: "With Mike the thing that scares me is also the thing that makes me feel comfort, which is that he is a very stable guy. He has a plan for his future."

Now again it isn't to say that Jasmine might not see other guys with similar qualities, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the director has left these parallels in only with Mike at this point. IMO the director is constructing a narrative, a very specific narrative for the F1. IMO the narrative that is being portrayed this season is a question of balance and stability. The only person where this narrative has been specifically mentioned... to the exact words, is Mike IMO. As @Joy15 post also shows, IMO the editing and production supports this too.

The combination of all of these things have led me to believe that Mike will have a good HTD and be chosen to go to Cuba. IMO Mikhel will have doubts prior to the rose ceremony, get in the limo, but then return to the RC (and Jasmine may or may not know about his actions). IMO Mikhel will then receive a rose and go to Cuba as the F2. IMO it will be Kevin W as F3, Mikhel as F2, and Mike as F1. That's been my best rational assessment after looking at all the information we have available, so I am very interested to see if it plays out that way. We shall see!

I posted this in the Bachette Au f1-F6 thread and based on this I picked the F1 but editing and the bait and switch technique got me in the end. But this makes a lot of sense when it comes to Jasmines season and why I have picked the f1 to F3 for her season below.

I was looking at the storyline and arc rather than the characters that are being played during the seasons. If anyone has read any articles about the bachelor franchise they would know that as soon as the contestants are cast, the producers mark a storyboard and allocate characters for each of the contestants, Ie the villain, the loud one etc. Thats why they have Story Producers (yes thats a real job title) . Well its the same for the top 3. Now thats not to say that some contestants don't go rogue with their personalities which can be a blessing for drama but can throw a spanner in the works for the overall story in which case some crafty editing happens. So here is my take on it.

F3 - The realist
These guys will forever have the realist hats on regardless of how much the Lead prods them to remove it and immerse themselves in the bachie bubble, it ain't happening. These guys have figured out the ins and outs of the environment, if the lead is already into someone else and above all else whether they are compatible and if they will make it in the outside world. The answer is generally no. They also have a hard time accepting there are other guys/girls the lead is dating and or end up with an overt jealous edit. AKA Sarah (SamW), Olena (Richie) Richie (SamF) Jake (Georgia) They also are portrayed as hard to get their feelings and emotions out which can sometimes be mistaken for the F1 character.

F2 - The Romantic
These guys I call the "poor buggers", why because they fall hard and fast and are all in from the get go. This isn't just in the bubble world, they are also more often than not like that in the real world. Very open with expressing their emotions, hopeless romantics and most likely to get their heart shattered into a million pieces along with the viewers. AKA Nikki (Richie), Lana (SamW), Michael (SamF), Robbie (JoJo) and Matty J (Georgia).

F1 - The Eternally Guarded

These guys have fallen for the Lead but still well aware that they are competing with 20 other people. But it's not shown as overt jealousy. Emotions and feelings don't come easy and generally speaking are guarded about expressing them until the 11th hour. AKA Sasha (SamF), Snez (SamW), Anna (Tim), Lauren B (Ben H), Jordan (JoJo) and Lee (Georgia).

Rogue Contestants
Now generally speaking, most characters stay in this formation, however we occasionally have contestants that go rogue which want to make the producers call out "abort mission" because their personality over shines or they have skipped the order and producers need to edit the heck out of what went wrong. AKA Alex (Richie), Brooks (Des), Ali (Tim), JoJo (Ben Higgins) Courtney (Georgia). I placed JOJO in here for BenH season as he had the f1&F2 who were scared to open up, hence the I love you to both girls. Ie drama.

So where do I place these guys.

Well Kev W =F3. He is still having a hard time with the other guys dating Jasmine. She made a point of it in the last Ep on their date. He is a different person away from the other guys. His jealousy is on full display and he's unable to fully immerse himself with Jasmine in the bubble.

Mikhel=F2 sweet baby yezuss he is all in. Chemistry is off the charts and he mentioned a couple of eps back at the RC to Jasmine during some 1 on 1. "I'm all in like steam train".

Mike =F1 he has a hard time expressing his emotions and is perceived to be quiet and so don't be surprised if he drops the L bomb on the last leg of the final date.

But because producers love drama, they will create a switch now after HTD. Questions will be raised at HTD with Mikhel and it will look like he is running scared to drop the L bomb. This will make people think he has moved to the F1 position. This is where I was caught for the Aussie bachette. The bait and switch. Don't be fooled. The poor guy will more than likely get his heart broken. (Oh Mikhel you handsome sweet man, come back for next season as the Lead along with Matty J so I can change my Avi to the both of you)

Back on track, I have a feeling because of the popularity of JOJOs season the next bachelor/ bachelorette is the f2 and not the F3 from previous seasons as the F2 seem to be getting a very favourable edit compared to what we have seen before.

That's my theory and by George this time I'm sticking to it.

Sorry the above post is really long ^^^^

Katiebelle wrote:@Joy15      

Great analysis! I remember reading in the Aussie Bette's thread an analysis you did about Lee being F1  - totally got that one right so well done.

But what stood out for me was your analysis of the profiles the guys did before the show and how Lee's was slightly different and words/phrases matched Georgia's. Have you done the same for Jasmine and her guys?  

@Katiebelle if the bios are any indication or their profiles, then I'd say Kevin for F1 just because he refers to that "one" person (so finding "the one" just like Lee's bio)

He strongly believes there is one person out there just for him, and for Kevin, this could be his chance to finally meet her. - source