The Bachelorette - Season 12 - Potential Lead - *Sleuthing - Spoilers*

I know that it's not a perfect analogy, but my only point was that it's the best data they have when they can't test every single person. With things like IG following, where Jojo has 375k followers and Caila has 134k, it's hard to imaging Jojo having almost 3x as many followers just by luck or overzealous fans. IMO.

nothatgirl wrote:I know that it's not a perfect analogy, but my only point was that it's the best data they have when they can't test every single person. With things like IG following, where Jojo has 375k followers and Caila has 134k, it's hard to imaging Jojo  having almost 3x as many followers just by luck or overzealous fans. IMO.

I don't know. Personally I don't trust any of this stuff since we know that people in the past have bought followers and apparently it is not that difficult or expensive to do. In the end, tptb will do what they want and tell us whoever they choose is the fan favourite and make people think it was all our idea...and people will still watch no matter who it is.

I agree. People will watch no matter what. They could make that gluten-hating night one eliminee the bachelorette and the show would still go on!

I will say, I do personally skip out on the seasons with leads that are awful (Jake, JP) or boring (sorry, Des). So, if it's Caila...I guess I'll just have to spend my summer not glued to the tv. The horror!

nothatgirl wrote:I think it's like anything else. Do SM followings and polls and Twitter trends represent every single viewer? Absolutely not. But just like presidential polls and preliminary date that are used to predict the November election results, they're the best we got to make a pretty good estimate of what the general tendencies and opinions are. It would be crazy of TPTB to dismiss that kind of data. IMO.

I would think if they take a poll politically they break it down demographically so it is understood where that slice of the pie is. It is reflective of many.
Whereas, social media especially IG and twitter are generally very young age demographic (or someone who needs to keep their name out there), so that slice is not quite as reflective of a general population.
ETA: After reading the rest of the conversation and adding in that you can buy and revote etc...I don't think SM results could be considered data. It's extremely skewed.

Let me see if I understand:

If going by supposed SM "un-popularity", the producers pick Caila, then all the people complaining about her will refuse to watch and the show will get horrible ratings and die.  

But if going by the same arbitrary and unknown criteria they pick JoJo, then obviously the show will be a huge hit, she will be THE.BEST.BACHELORETTE.EVER and the show will go on for years.

Do I have this right, according to the almighty "Social Media Soothsayers"?  If they pick Caila, the show will die.  If they pick JoJo, it will live on forever?  

*edit*

The point is that if TPTB really want a "fan favourite" and "someone everyone can get behind" then Caila shouldn't be the frontrunner. Whether there's any truth to what they're saying is another thing altogether, but I don't think it's even an opinion that JoJo is more of a fan favourite than Caila, it's evident where ever you look. As for the portion of the audience who isn't on any SM, message boards or commenting on articles, who the heck knows who they like. I, however, am not gonna assume they prefer Caila over JoJo anymore than I'm gonna assume the opposite. No one knows.

It's not just the polls, it is sentiment and to ignore it, is not very wise from a business perspective. It really isn't that hard to gather the data and get a pulse across SM platforms on what's working and what's not and identify who is saying it. The parent company, in this particular situation, is extremely driven by market research... lets just say they dig deep in the weeds and test the finest of details for their products and campaigns.

Obviously, there are other factors in play, but I don't see why they'd want to risk and possibly, waste Ben's big ratings gains with someone who is a mixed bag when they have other and easier options available.

If JoJo ends up being F2, SM will blow up with support for her, especially in this fragile situation of Ben being in love with her and possibly dumping her.  Oh, the sympathy that will be coming her way.  Watch her followers on Twitter/IG skyrocket after the FRC/ATFR.  I guarantee she will have more followers than Caila.  Hands down.  She will be the fan favorite, she just doesn't know it yet.  Jmo.

Mommyof1 wrote:If JoJo ends up being F2, SM will blow up with support for her, especially in this fragile situation of Ben being in love with her and possibly dumping her.  Oh, the sympathy that will be coming her way.  Watch her followers on Twitter/IG skyrocket after the FRC/ATFR.  I guarantee she will have more followers than Caila.  Hands down.  She will be the fan favorite, she just doesn't know it yet.  Jmo.

She already is a fan favourite. I don't think she's bought any followers either, because I've kept an eye on all their IG's and they've been gaining followers pretty gradually. Caila the slowest by far though. Even after being eliminated this week, she's gained around 15k followers, while at the same time JoJo's gained like 50k. Say what you want about the meaning of that, but I think it gives a you general idea of who people are more drawn to.

Personally I prefer Jojo over almost any other option. I watch with my sister and mother. They don't like her at all and feel she is too much like Andi (who they did not like). They want Caila. We are the worst group to poll because we will watch no matter who they pick and we follow no one on social media.

The Vast Majority and I mean millions of people who watch the Bach/Ette show do not use SM and particularly not in relationship to the Bach/Ette show.  This is a fact.  Most of the watchers tune in for a fun diversion and they don't even know anything other than what TPTB/ABC choose to show them on their TV's.  The SM numbers skew hugely toward a younger crowd and that is not the same crowd spends $$$ on the things the advertisers of the show promote.  The choice of Lead is a business decision that is comprised of a myriad of factors.  SM is a teeny tiny piece of the pie.  Very, very very few people choose to not watch because they don't like the Lead.  I think ABC/TPTB know their own business better than us.  I and many many many other viewers would watch Caila as the Bachelorette.  That is a fact too.

JMO

casjacknick wrote:Personally I prefer Jojo over almost any other option. I watch with my sister and mother. They don't like her at all and feel she is too much like Andi (who they did not like). They want Caila. We are the worst group to poll because we will watch no matter who they pick and we follow no one on social media.

Sorry for the double post BUT your comment is an accurate representation of the normal viewing population. It is exactly what I was referencing in my previous post.  I have no doubt Caila would bring good ratings to ABC/TBTB.  Most people are like you and me and will watch regardless of who is chosen.  Then we will like or dislike that person based on what we are shown on our TV. This is the formula that works for TPTB.