The Bachelorette - Season 12 - Potential Lead - *Sleuthing - Spoilers*

DebutAlbum wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:
I think Joelle is the "planned" Bette as well.
But unless she is also the viewers favorite and has the most SM support/momentum it won't matter one bit, IMO.
Kaitlyn's SM campaign of support/momentum proved this to be the case.
TPTB will likely (99% likelihood, imo) go with whomever has the most SM support/momentum.

I didn't/don't follow Kaitlyn on SM. What was her "campaign"? TIA!

In a nutshell, Kaitlyn tweeted about herself and interacted a LOT with viewers. She was constantly on SM and engaged with followers and tweeting to others. She grew her huge fan base from there and utilized SM formats like snapchat before others did. More than that, many of BachNation tweeted about Kaitlyn and tweeted their support of her. By the time it got down to F4, it was pretty much 90% of all SM (Twitter especially) from all of BachNation alum (so those who had been lead/contestants before) saying she needs to be the Bachelorette. Even actresses and talk show hosts and more got on the bandwagon tweeting support of her.

IMO, there's been an increase in SM activity in the last few years that has now made this show more about SM support/momentum than anything else -- especially when it comes to who the lead will be. That only the most recent of leads/F1s, etc get to have verified blue check marks on their Twitter and IG accounts is part of that. The other part is the increase in SM users who get SM accounts and so only start following the new seasons contestants. That Becca already has a built-in fan base and can work SM already (she has a large following) and is closely tied to many Bach alum who have a very, very strong influence on SM (where it seems to matter) and that Becca will be on the show night one (so not halfway through like Nick) it is likely her following will only increase.

Edit notwithstanding, if she is likable and gets lots of BachNation support on SM? That's a campaign right there that is formidable, IMO. And that is what I am looking at -- not anything else or any bias or what have you. Because I won't underestimate the power of SM support b/c it supercedes all else as has been proven to be the case. Whichever girl has the most SM support will be the Bette, IMO. I have no doubt about it. Like it or don't like it, retread, whatever, it doesn't matter... if that person has the most support? Game over.  :Nod:


JMO

^ Agree and Chris Harrison has alluded to the power of SM / fans / followers in interviews etc.

Yeah. I have come to realize now that the only thing that matters (apart from not being F1/F2 and being a current contestant) for next leads is how much SM support they get. So that means there could very well be another Kaitlyn as lead next year or a retread or someone else for Bette 2016, no matter how one is liked or disliked in the threads it will be the SM that will be the deciding factor, IMO.

Sidenote (O/T): For those not too keen on who the next Bette may be, there will be a first Bette Canada next year and a second season for Bette Australia (the most recent Bette Aussie S1 was my favorite ever). Leads are still unknown and there are threads for each in the International section for sleuthing/speculating.

IMO Becca is in the running or wants to be. She was in the running from that first tweet to Milsy back in August. There is no logical reasoning that she would think she had any chance with Ben, someone she didn't know. A popular contestant who was going to meet 25 new girls.

She is going to be in the media as much as possible, but IMO viewers will fan girl over someone new.

I can see that being the case too, GA.
Right now I am already fangirling over who may be the first Bette Canada and don't particularly care who is Bette US S12.

AllAboutLove wrote:
I think Joelle is the "planned" Bette as well.
But unless she is also the viewers favorite and has the most SM support/momentum it won't matter one bit, IMO.
Kaitlyn's SM campaign of support/momentum proved this to be the case.
TPTB will likely (99% likelihood, imo) go with whomever has the most SM support/momentum.

GuardianAngel wrote:IMO Becca is in the running or wants to be. She was in the running from that first tweet to Milsy back in August. There is no logical reasoning that she would think she had any chance with Ben, someone she didn't know. A popular contestant who was going to meet 25 new girls.

She is going to be in the media as much as possible, but IMO viewers will fan girl over someone new.

While I agree that SM is a very important part of the marketing strategy of the show these days, I still don't think it will be Becca...no matter how large her following. Not that she won't try or that they won't dangle that carrot, just that she won't get it.

There is a big difference between the Becca and Kaitlyn situation:

Strike one is the fact that Becca would be on her third go round on the show. People are already turning against her for coming back this time, it would only get worse the next time. Even if she gets a sympathetic edit, people will still be sick of her...as they would be with anyone coming back that many times.

Strike two is the fact that virgin Becca would rather hold hands than make out...and she would have to make out with multiple guys if she was the Bette. You can bet that she wouldn't be dropping her bottoms for the camera. Producers knew Kaitlyn would happily bring the sexy back. Becca, not so much.

Strike three is the fact that Becca has never been in love and didn't want to say that she was during Chris' season. The show moves too fast for her and the lead has to be willing to let themselves go and "fall in love" with multiple people...and have at least some of the audience believe it. Becca had trouble making people believe she was falling for one!

Strike four is just her personality. Kaitlyn is outgoing, wild, sexy. Becca...none of those. Watching her would be like watching paint dry.

So, yeah she may have lots of SM followers and while I think tptb will use those followers to stir up hype about the season and the next Bette, ultimately, I don't think it will be Becca unless something drastic happens.

I totally agree with you Sprite. But I think she's going to try. Sorry for quoting myself but as recent as Nov 13th she's talking Bachelorette. This person is married, why would she even suggest she be the Bachelorette if not for the response she was hoping to get?

GuardianAngel wrote:

Kate Coyne ‏@KatePeople  Nov 13
"I don't want to spend my career waving a rose back and forth."
I vow to find a way to decline a job using those words someday. #CenterStage

Becca Tilley
‏@beccatilley5
@KatePeople YOU SHOULD BE THE BACHELORETTE- all these dreams could come true....    

Kate Coyne ‏@KatePeople  Nov 13
Kate Coyne Retweeted Becca Tilley
Oh Becca...from your mouth to Mike Fleiss's ears. (Except, oh wait..I'm married. Nevermind. You do it instead. WINK emoji  

GuardianAngel wrote:I totally agree with you Sprite. But I think she's going to try. Sorry for quoting myself but as recent as Nov 13th she's talking Bachelorette. This person is married, why would she even suggest she be the Bachelorette if not for the response she was hoping to get?

GuardianAngel wrote:

Kate Coyne ‏@KatePeople  Nov 13
"I don't want to spend my career waving a rose back and forth."
I vow to find a way to decline a job using those words someday. #CenterStage

Becca Tilley
‏@beccatilley5
@KatePeople YOU SHOULD BE THE BACHELORETTE- all these dreams could come true....    

Kate Coyne ‏@KatePeople  Nov 13
Kate Coyne Retweeted Becca Tilley
Oh Becca...from your mouth to Mike Fleiss's ears. (Except, oh wait..I'm married. Nevermind. You do it instead. WINK emoji  

Oh, I have no doubt that she wants it and is actively campaigning. She seems to be following the Kaitlyn SM strategy and probably got some tips from K. Tptb have probably encouraged this thinking but, for all the reasons I stated above, I don't think it is going to work unless she has a drastic personality turn around and nobody from this season strikes a strong cord with viewers. It will be interesting watching to see if she does indeed try to bring the sexy. That will show me that her intention is really to gun for the next lead and not so much for Ben...no matter what story she tries to sell.

I really don't think it will matter if Becca has more followers and SM support than Ben's other contenders. TPTB will pick who they want regardless of what the viewers want. Arie had way more followers and SM support from fans than CS did and he still didn't get picked. Several Bach alum campaigned for Arie too including popular well-liked leads like Sean and Emily. It didn't matter one bit. I think Joelle has it in the bag unless she doesn't want it.

bluwavz wrote:I really don't think it will matter if Becca has more followers and SM support than Ben's other contenders. TPTB will pick who they want regardless of what the viewers want. Arie had way more followers and SM support from fans than CS did and he still didn't get picked. Several Bach alum campaigned or Arie too including popular well-liked leads like Sean and Emily. It didn't matter one bit. I think Joelle has it in the bag unless she doesn't want it.

I really hope you're right! I liked Becca at first, but then she started being way too involved in all things BachNation and it became very obvious she' s milking her 15min bachelor fame. I really hope the future leads won't be decided primarily on SM popularity, because that would very much hinder all the not-so-SM-active contestants that would otherwise give a great season.

Kaitlyn did campaign hard but she was also in the perfect position to do so - she was F3 and not a repeat contestant. Becca isn't in that good of a position.

Something else i thought about - there were many reports of recycled contestants from an older season that were supposedly in the talks or even almost sure to get the lead - Roberto, Arie, Josh M, but it never happened. I think TPTB are using those rumours to get people talking and then give it to a person from the most recent season. Emily is the only lead (correct me if i'm wrong on this one) from an older season, and they wanted her HARD

bluwavz wrote:I really don't think it will matter if Becca has more followers and SM support than Ben's other contenders. TPTB will pick who they want regardless of what the viewers want. Arie had way more followers and SM support from fans than CS did and he still didn't get picked. Several Bach alum campaigned or Arie too including popular well-liked leads like Sean and Emily. It didn't matter one bit. I think Joelle has it in the bag unless she doesn't want it.

There's a couple of things different though in the past years and since Arie days...

1) TPTB always choose a current contestant in the years since post-Arie days.
2) TPTB don't pick who they want regardless... if that was the case they could pick someone from a past season but they don't anymore. They pick from the current season and usually this person is favored by the majority of viewers.
3) Even with all that, I think SM has changed the game since Arie days. It's just not the same, imo. We have a lead (K) who has over a million followers. She wasn't even to be considered the top choice if one goes by the fact that they had Britt and spun it that it was a "divided" thing. It wasn't. Viewers wanted Kaitlyn and TPTB gave the viewers want they want. They always do when it comes to current contestants.
4) If someone from Ben's season has major SM support/momentum, I definitely think TPTB will have that person as lead. And that doesn't mean it will be Becca. It could be F6 or F8 or whomever. One doesn't know until this comes around.

While TPTB may have their top choice (which I do think is F3, JoJo) saying that she will get the gig even if there is more support, and major support for another contestant and JoJo isn't liked by viewers but stills gets the gig? I don't see that happening.

The lead will be the person who has the most support/momentum by US Weekly/People Mag (likely E Online) and SM, including Bach alum and viewers, IMHO. If JoJo has that then I think she will be it. If she doesn't? Not happening, IMO.

AllAboutLove wrote:I can see that being the case too, GA.
Right now I am already fangirling over who may be the first Bette Canada and don't particularly care who is Bette US S12.

Now there's going to be a Bachelorette? You guys should have had Kaitlyn as the Bachelorette. Doubt there will be a US lead there.