Bachelor New Zealand - Art Green - *Sleuthing* - *Spoilers*

What girls?. Gawd he's so good looking.

kapiti wrote: *snipped to highlight points*

Jan 16 Chrystal SM activity...

Alysha, who is very active on SM was sleuthed by AAL to be active on March 6 which would work with filming continuing into March. I can't see her finishing filming and not getting straight onto SM (if the FRC was late Feb). Hopefully one of you can un-muddle me!!

Filming start date - Thanks for posting Kapiti! And great to see that we have Friday, Jan 16 as a definitive date of sorts that correlates with what has been posted about the other girls so it seems like there is a consensus with Jan 16 week being end of SM activity for the girls (just checked Chrystal's last post and it was approx. 9:30 PM Jan 16. Also, Dani's IG post from January 16 was of her in a cocktail dress. Not sure if it is the mansion or not. Will have to sleuth). So safe to assume filming started that weekend Saturday, Jan 17... or the following week of Jan 19, possibly.

End of filming and Social Media Activity - Seems end of Feb/beginning of March seems reasonable. It is difficult to tell when exactly the girls got back onto SM because some of their accounts are so private you cannot tell other than profile/cover photo changes, etc for FB and posts on IG (which accts may be private can't tell and no way to tell if anything has been deleted if following/friends when show started).  Also, not a guarantee that the latest date posting is accurate. For example, Rosie who left Episode 1 and night 1... her most recent FB activity post-show was Feb 28.  


SM (Facebook and Instagram) for the 13 girls still left on the show - Anyone left out, feel free to add or correct if have different info. Names in red link to their SM.

Facebook:*earliest activity post show from most recent/descending order*
Dani = ?? (started a public page on March 17, IG March 9) 
Alysha = March 6 (changed cover photo... her account is extremely private and so cannot tell when changed anything other than cover photo. Not even her friends list).
Kristie = March 3 (Updated her cover photo -- need to sleuth whether it is Fiji. She changed her name but the one in the url is her name. Her public figure page she started posting in March 9)
Matilda = Feb 26/27 (changed her location to Auckland (this date could also coincide with when Art took a 'break from filming' so not necessarily that she went home. IIRC also jotted down something about a Feb 26 post about roommate leaving)
Chrystal= ?? (Started a public figure page March 11; IG was Feb 25.)
Poppy  = Feb 23 (updated cover photo)
Natalie = Feb 27 (changed her "About me" section, started a public figure page on March 23; IG post Feb 21)
Amanda = Feb 18 (updated cover photo, not sure if her posting b/c she has kids so maybe allowed her phone?)
Carissa = Feb 14 (updated cover photo)
Hayley = Feb 7 (updated profile photo)
Shivani = ??
Danielle B. = ??
Art = Jan 27 (changed his profile photo)
If anyone is actually friends with any of the contestants on FB that would help a LOT to see if any of them were active before the dates listed (since only what is public is seen).

Instagram *earliest activity post-show from most recent/descending order*
Dani = March 9 (earliest FB is ??)
Alysha =  March 10 (post liked by Art *just checked and it is still liked by Art* and earliest is Mar 6)
Kristie (does she have one??) = ?? (FB earliest is Mar 3)
Matilda =  March 14 (earliest is Feb 26)
Chrystal = Feb 25
Poppy =  March 24 (FB earliest is Feb 23)
Natalie = Feb 21 (FB earliest is Feb 27)
Amanda = Feb 19 (earliest FB is Feb 18)
Carissa = March 17 (Fb earliest is Feb 14)
Brigette = Feb 10 (and captioned her post "I'm baaaaack!")
Hayley = Feb 7 (same as FB)
Art = March 16 (I noticed he had 144 IG posts when his IG was private but when it went public he only had 140 posts).

Until there are less than 13 girls and we get to top 4, no way to know for certain whether SM activity is correct in the order it is placed (because even Rosie has Feb 28 as her date active). Also, based on who top 2 will be we will know if SM order is correct as it relates to filming ending. Too many scenarios to go with right now with 13 girls left. Will have to wait and see... it is still early days.

So based on 7 weeks filming and starting around Saturday, Jan 17 - end of Feb/ beginning March this is just a random/very rough schedule for now and probably incorrect (am going with what Matilda said in her ITM about it being last week when first 1 on 1 date  from M&G and then she says week/s ago for Ep 4 RC, IIRC):

Filming timeline probably all incorrect but just typed it and put it down.

Week 1 (Jan 17-18): M&G/Ep 1 = 21 girls total; FIR=Matilda (RC = 4 eliminated) \\\ Ep 2 = 17 girls total; 1on1=Poppy...
Week 2 (Jan 19-25): ...Ep 2; GDR=Dani (RC = 2 eliminated) \\\  Ep 3 = 15 girls total; 1on1=Matilda; GDR= Kristie (RC = 1 eliminated) || Ep 4 = 14 girls total; 1on1=Amanda; GDR=Poppy (RC = 1 eliminated)*  
Week 3 (Jan 26-Feb 1): * could be here? \\\ Ep 5 = 13 girls total; 1on1=Dani; GDR=? (RC = 1-2? eliminated) \\\ Ep 6 = ? girls total; 1on1=?; GDR=? (RC = 1-2? eliminated) \\\
Week 4 (Feb 2-8): Ep 7 = ?girls total; 1on1=?; GDR=? (RC = ? eliminated) \\\ Ep 8 = ? girls total; = ? eliminated)
Week 5 (Feb 9-15): HTD? ( ~4 girls?)
Week 6 (Feb 16-22): FSD (they only may have had 1 in Fiji according to NZHerald)? MTP?
Week 7 (Feb 23-Mar 1): LCD; FRC?
Week 8 (Mar 2 -10): move LCD and FRC into this week?
WTA? ATFR? Not sure if filmed yet. Need to keep an eye out if girls mention anything.


Question: Does anyone know how many episodes for this season?
Heard on media there will be ~ 10-12 or so? Can anyone confirm? Is there a TV Guide on when the show ends, the last episode or has it been announced when FRC episode will air or if there is WTA/ATFR?? I tried to check but couldn't see anything past March 31st on TVguide.


--------------------------------------------
Posting this before I forget: It is interesting that those who got Intro Videos in the first episode have all had some sort of small time NZ fame in the past or are connected to the show (but not that big of a deal either):
Matilda: works for MediaWorks
Chrystal: was model
Kristie: was pageant for NZ Miss Universe
Danielle B: had fame for music/accordion?

Thanks AAL, super sleuthing piecing those dates together....I just saw a response from Alysha (on her outfit picture from the last rose ceremony) where she said that rose ceremonies occurred every 3 days. So does this mean they did 2 sets of filming each week that consisted of 1 single date and 1 group date? Just thought this might explain how they got filming done in a short timeline.

mercieme wrote:...I just saw a response from Alysha (on her outfit picture from the last rose ceremony) where she said that rose ceremonies occurred every 3 days. So does this mean they did 2 sets of filming each week that consisted of 1 single date and 1 group date? Just thought this might explain how they got filming done in a short timeline.

Thanks for posting that about Alysha! ElonM mentioned the comment in Alysha's thread and it may help figure out the timeline. Definitely thinking you are correct about 2 sets of single and group dates each week

Also, saw you posted upthread about Episode 5 preview:
Matilda - doesn't seem to go on the group date (but from RC it looks like she may have a rose since she is standing on the right side -- the side where they stand when they get roses)
Poppy - looks annoyed that Dani gets a kiss and she doesn't go on any dates either. Poppy is also one of the girls standing on the left side during RC and she looks very displeased (will post s/caps in s/cap thread once get them all together) Thinking she will get a rose but the group she is standing with is not contenders (other than Amanda, who isn't really I don't think a contender).
Alysha - doesn't go on GD either and asks Dani if she got "the kiss".
Single 1 on 1 date is Dani - helicopter and then zip-lining. Later she has a picnic with Art where she gets the *First Kiss* (in Episode 5!! Is this a first for this franchise? So late in the season for a first kiss?).
Group Date - Is a shooting and target date where 5 girls go on the date = Kristie, Brigette, Hayley (seems she gets time with Art to practice bow shooting) and what looks like Shivani and Danielle B. Kristie VO saying she is going to "win the bachelor's affection".
RC - From what it looks like, Dani, Kristie, Hayley, and Matilda? have roses..... it is mid-RC so not sure who leaves. Thinking Shivani maybe or Brigette? It will help with the timeline if we know who leaves and we can match it up with their SM activity date.

Thanks AAL, if Matilda does not get a date on Episode 6, then we can begin to her chances of being F1.

Just got the chance to catching up Epis 3 and 4. Throwing out some observations..plus some reasonable speculations...

- I have a soft spot on ITMs, PIs and VOs..thats why i guess i paid more attention to those stuff .



I have noticed this PI's BACKDROP - with 2 red candle holders  is exclusively shown over several girls only. I need others to recheck and confirm it for me.  
1. Alysha on above cap
2. Matilda- ETA. episode 3.on 10:42 mark. same backdrop (?)
3. Clarissa- episode 3. on 1:33 and 34:21 mark ETA. -same backdrop (?)
4. Hayley- episode 3. on 3:04 and 40:39 mark ETA. -same backdrop (?)
5. Poppy- ETA. found it! episode 3. on 7:40 mark. stating her rivalry with Clarissa. same backdrop (?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9HW-Sjxslc
6. Lisa - ETA. epis 3. on 3:51 mark- same backdrop (?)

I found this super interesting since we have had sleuthed a spesific backdrop applied exclusively for all the F4s on JPG season - thanks to Litta and her awesomeness! . . The theory: the PIs were taken during/right after HTD.

In the same vein, i lean to think similar theory applied for 'advance stage' girls on this show: F4 or possibly F6. btw you have no idea how relieved i was to find out NO Crystal's PI with the same backdrop. fiuuuh.!!! ..

Unfortunately i couldn't dig deeper with the  required caps. Really appreciate if someone could filling in the gaps.  .

ETA, turned out that Lisa going home on the epis 4...so im not sure whether above PI theory can be applied. .then again i dont have side by side SCs of the 6 girls to compare..

Just because....i love a reasonable fun guessing...throwing out my early predictions of F1-F4 based on what we've been shown so far  :

F1: Matilda
- Aside that have been mentioned before (intro vid, MnG sitdown time, etc) , i noticed Matilda got the episode 3 date, just as Anna of Tim's R, noted also that both couples didnt kiss on their first date .If she turns out to get the first kiss on epis.6, and second date on epis.8,  dont blame me if i think TBNZ is borrowing TBOZ's first 'working' formula of the final couple edit, as i thought all along .
- When Danielle L removed herself, Matilda's VOs were heard throwing out some thoughtful concern over Art :" i felt sorry for him..its crazy2 night..etc"--an old time story arc of typical F1: the one who is most thoughtful and considerate over the leads's feeling/ journey. IMO

F2. Alysha
- was seen with the 'rivalry' PI stated up thread, noticing Art&Matilda's connection.
ETA. Look who's noticing Tim R and Anna's connection?..This girl: Rochelle, Tim's F2.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x17k6vh_the-bachelor-australia-episode-8_lifestyle  (on 5:28 mark)

>I still have the right to change the F1 and F2 order once i get to see Alysha's first date..  

F3. Carissa

F4. Poppy
its interesting that Poppy, IIRC, had a PI with the same 'rivalry' theme over Carissa.

> Yet the F3 and F4 order is still interchangeable at this point in my book.  

Side observations :
- as much as i want to use my all season, i cant shake the feeling that Matilda is production's pick to be the 'safe' F1 for Art, just in case he couldn't end up with anyone else as his F1. It doesnt necessarily taking out the sincerity, nd adorableness of Matilda. (I really like her and she came across as genuine to me). But im willing to bet the producers knew before hand that she is the prime candidate for F1 role. We all know the big bro Bach US series does this role-playing pegging most -if not all- of the time.

- if Matilda ends up as the F1, she will be the first , out of any Bach franchise , to receive both final rose and FIR. please SCMIIW. Perhaps this may result in more people talking about the show ?.

My dear Mura, you are on to something girl ....and you are the queen of ITMs and VO's in my books

I have been hesistant on Alysha, can't just see it at this point. I can see Poppy and Matilda though as F2. Also after what Allaboutlove sleuthed about Kristie today, she could make it to F6 and surpass Hayley.

Art said he didn't have a type but he is a blonde guy in my mind, tis the battle of the blondes this first season

^^Thanks Mercieme dear for your compliment.

Its both my strength and weakness, i suppose, since i was right about my Prince being the F1 just bc of those stuff, as well as got duped afterwards on US Series for the very same matters

anyways... im looking forward to seeing Alysha's more....but im with you: still holding on thought that if she is the F1, they would highlighted her already at this point.

Just catching up. I don't really think it means anything in this case but I think the Bach US usual F1 music was played during Art's talk with Poppy?

mercieme wrote:Thanks AAL, if Matilda does not get a date on Episode 6, then we can begin to her chances of being F1.

IA! But may extend it to Ep 7 or so.   There is still the date (or may be SQT) shown with Chrystal and Art (she kisses him) in previews. Also, Alysha's date with Art. And haven't seen anything with Kristie yet to suggest that she gets a single date?? (her SQT was shown in season preview but not a single 1 on 1, then again, neither was Matilda's 1 on 1 shown in season preview).

murasaki1393 wrote:Just got the chance to catching up Epis 3 and 4. Throwing out some observations..plus some reasonable speculations...
- I have a soft spot on ITMs, PIs and VOs..thats why i guess i paid more attention to those stuff .



I have noticed this PI's BACKDROP - with 2 red candle holders  is exclusively shown over several girls only. I need others to recheck and confirm it for me.  
1. Alysha on above cap
2. Matilda- ETA. episode 3.on 10:42 mark. same backdrop (?)
3. Clarissa- episode 3. on 1:33 and 34:21 mark ETA. -same backdrop (?)
4. Hayley- episode 3. on 3:04 and 40:39 mark ETA. -same backdrop (?)
5. Poppy- ETA. found it! episode 3. on 7:40 mark. stating her rivalry with Clarissa. same backdrop (?)
6. Lisa - ETA. epis 3. on 3:51 mark- same backdrop (?)

I found this super interesting since we have had sleuthed a spesific backdrop applied exclusively for all the F4s on JPG season - thanks to Litta and her awesomeness! . . The theory: the PIs were taken during/right after HTD.

Snipped...

- if Matilda ends up as the F1, she will be the first , out of any Bach franchise , to receive both final rose and FIR. please SCMIIW. Perhaps this may result in more people talking about the show ?. Great point! Sadly, this is why I don't think she will be getting the final rose.  

Thanks for posting this Mura!

Using this info as a possible timeline we can sleuth out regarding the bolded, Lisa, Hayley, and Carissa:

Lisa
= left the mansion episode 4 so RC so if filming started Jan 17, then maybe left 2 weeks or so into filming?
= was only active on SM March 3rd (as was Kristie) and this may be a clue as to when filming ended? (Filming finished before March 1st according to this).
= as the wildcard choice, Lisa knew all about the show and has media interviews. Wondering if she started being active on SM March 3rd because she knew filming had ended??? (This goes along with possible FRC end of Feb/beginning March)

Hayley
= was active on SM Feb 7th so if filming started around Jan 17, then she was home ~2+ weeks later?
= if Hayley is not eliminated by the next 2-3 RCs then that means that her SM activity is not an accurate representation of filming schedule...

Carrisa
= was active on SM Feb 14th so if filming started around Jan 17, then she was home ~3+ weeks later?
= if not eliminated by the next 2-4 RCs then that means that her SM activity is not an accurate representation of filming schedule...

Although Brigette is not included in those ITMs, want to use her as a point of reference for timeline because she posted on her SM on Feb 10, "I'm baaaaack!". Looking to see when she leaves might give us an idea for timeline and compared to Hayley and Carissa and when they leave, let us know how accurate social media activity may be in conjunction with filming schedule. Just something to keep our eye out for as may very well help us pinpoint when filming started.


In the meantime, I am currently working on a timeline and will post it to see if we can figure it out together...

Art just liked a photo on IG that Amanda posted of himself, Amanda, Natalie, and Carrisa (see pics in the SM non-discussion thread) that is of them from March 17 when they did a bit for the intro to Jono and Ben show in NZ which aired this week.

So... I think that what Art likes on SM means nothing just like the fact that Art is following the girls on IG and they are following him back.

Don't think he found love. Maybe he is dating his F1 or maybe not. Seems like everyone is just friends and they are all just super happy that they got to be on a television show together?

Will have to wait and see if there is even a WTA or ATFR...