Bachelor 19 - Chris Soules - FD- LCD - FRC - F1/2/3 - *Spoilers & Sleuthing* - Discussion

Litta123 wrote:Let's use the sun's angle to figure out what's possible.

Lucas15 wrote:

sophienette wrote:was there also not mention of clouds again from 4 or 5?

Clouds came back in by 5:30 PM (it was still reported as clear at 4:35 PM and 4:55 PM and 5:15 PM) but sunset was at 4:39 PM that day - once the sun went down it wouldn't matter if there were clouds or not.

Litta123 wrote:

Lucas15 wrote:I posted this earlier in another thread but I think it may deserve posting here as well. The background is that the data I had found about historical weather in and about Arlington and Lamont the day of the FRC showed it was foggy in the morning, breaking up and becoming cloudy and by about 2:30 PM was clear, staying clear until after sunset. And we also knew that we have a screencap (thanks to Litta123) of Whitney in a limo where we could see sun striking the seat and interior of the limo:



So we can deduce an approximate time when this picture had to have been taken - it was during a time of the day when the sun was out and the sky was clear - but that leaves open the question of where was the limo taking her - more specifically was she going to the FRC location in Lamont or was she being driven away from that location? I set about using some science to figure that out (the liability of being an engineer)!

Now we probably know that the sun isn't always directly overhead; in winter months it's in the southern sky and in the summer it's more overhead (the reverse is true for the southern hemisphere). If the sun is directly overhead at mid day it would be described as having a zenith of 90 degrees. If the sun was right on the horizon (as it could be if you go far enough north) its zenith would be 0 degrees. So I looked up (there are on-line calculators for this) to see what the zenith of the sun would be in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM and found out - it would be 73.2 degrees - basically in the southern sky.

We also know that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west and the convention for defining where it is along that path is to define an azimuth angle. Due east would be 90 degrees - right in the middle would be 180 degrees, and due west (right at sunset) would be 270 degrees. The azimuth of the sun in Lamont IA on November 22, 2014 at 2:30 PM was 219.97 degrees. Basically in the western sky. Combining the zenith and the azimuth shows that the sun would be in the southwestern sky at that time of day on that date and in that location.

Once we know where the sun is we could calculate the angle of shadows it would create on objects on the ground - or at least we could get enough of an idea to know what direction the limo was headed. If the limo was headed west to east or north to south the sun would have been shining in the passenger's window of the limo and since Whitney was sitting on that side, her face would have been brightly illuminated. But that's not the case - her face is in shadow and the sun is coming in from the opposite side of the limo, so the limo has to be traveling east to west or south to north. In a post on this issue, Litta123 noticed that the telephone poles you can see through the rear window of the limo are on the drivers side and that fits the location of telephone poles on the road north to Lamont from Dubuque so I think there's a high degree of likelihood that this image of Whitney was taken on the way from Dubuque to Lamont (basically an east to west then south to north drive) and adding Litta123's analysis, was actually heading north towards Lamont from route 20 from Dubuque.

So a little bit of science and a good eye for detail suggest this image was taken when Whitney was on her way to the FRC in Lamont - rather than leaving it and heading back.

May I add a (possible) #unexpected twist to your analysis.

When I was taking caps I noticed this.



I thought the angle of the shadow might be somewhat helpful. I used Google maps and RS's location (thanks mura!) to determine the likely path of travel to the FRC.

I realized it's irrelevant what side of the road the phone poles are on...as they show up on both sides depending on where the car is. Using Google maps, the route most likely taken from Rt.20 W is Rt.187 N. From there one would head west on 30th St. The drive into the farm is south, but lined with trees...so not the road in the caps.

So the way I see it is that the car could be going in any direction -- north, west, south or east. It's important to remember these are true north-south, east-west roads. Let's use the sun's angle to figure out what's possible.

Case 1: Car is heading North. That would make the shadow point in the direction of NW, so the sun is coming from SE (POSSIBLE, but either early to mid morning due to the angle.) This is questionable since the weather indicates it was foggy for that morning...the shadow should not be that intense.

Case 2: Car is heading West. That would make the shadow point SW, so the sun is coming from the NE (NOT POSSIBLE).

Case 3: Car is heading South. That would make the shadow point SE, so the sun is coming from the NW (NOT POSSIBLE).

Case 4: Car is heading East. That would make the shadow point NE, so the sun is coming from the SW (POSSIBLE, but either mid to late afternoon due to the angle.) If the car is heading east at that time of the day it would be heading AWAY from the FRC. Who's car would that be? Whitney's? Aren't we saying she's the one coming at the end of the day? Does she end up leaving the FRC without Chris one way or another?

Did I make a mistake in my thinking?

Btw, we have another shadow cap from the original preview. Whose limo is this? It's a very different angle. Would it change that radically in the time from Dubuque to Lamont if it's the same girl?

2observe wrote:

Lucas15 wrote:

sophienette wrote:was there also not mention of clouds again from 4 or 5?

Clouds came back in by 5:30 PM (it was still reported as clear at 4:35 PM and 4:55 PM and 5:15 PM) but sunset was at 4:39 PM that day - once the sun went down it wouldn't matter if there were clouds or not.

  Hello everyone. I've been mostly lurking this season, but I decided to comment on the limo SC for the FRC.  I don't think that the timing of the limos matters much since I think Becca leaves earlier on the day of the FRC.  Her attire just doesn't look like FRC to me, and she seems to be very unsure of the situation in the SC of her looking out of the window and she's wearing the same top/dress. I just think that she either decides to leave or Chris lets her go before going to the FRC. Now back to lurking, .

avoice wrote:Don't know where to put this ... E News just put on twitter that they have Bachelor scoop. I don't get the channel. !!!@

Litta123 wrote:Mtnlvr, here's what it means to me. I'll concede that it was foggy in the morning...so the likelihood of seeing a telephone pole's shadow in the morning is near 0%.

If my cases are correct, then my first limo cap above is showing a limo traveling east, which would be AWAY from the FRC. Who drives away from the FRC? Someone who has been rejected (or someone who doesn't accept the proposal, but this has never happened...right?) Since the shadow's angle is more acute to the direction of the road (verses perpendicular), I believe it would be created by the sun being further west than south. See Lucas's figure. The sun would be moving left in his diagram.

Thus, I am assuming this cap is made later in the afternoon. If we believe Whitney is the one arriving later in the afternoon, then this implies to me that Whitney is leaving the FRC in a limo...not staying with Chris...not engaged. If Becca did leave because she couldn't make up her mind, then at this point my interpretation is that Chris is engaged to neither.

This could be supported by this cap where Chris is crying (see below). He says more or less, "This is not what I want, but it's the reality." I noticed the curtains to the left of the cap. To me, they look like they could possibly come from the mansion. I have plenty of caps from the mansion with similar patterns. The wall color is also consistent with the mansion.

It's a possible theory. Becca may have wanted to continue, but not get engaged. Chris has said he's working with the one he loves to make a relationship in the real world. DWTS fits in nicely with a relationship with Becca.

Is this right? I have no idea, but it seems possible to me based on how I'm seeing the caps at the moment. If I'm wrong, no big deal...and I'll be learning how to knit.