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Post by Bloomers Tue May 31, 2011 11:25 pm

Hi, everybody! I have been on vacation and have just gotten back home. I did get to watch the show last night, but no one else in the condo wanted to see it but me, so I had to watch it in my room on a very small tv - without any notes or anything.
I did take a moment before coming on this thread to look at the
Screencaps Only thread at the RC line-up and at the toast and then back at the hard copies that I have of the past few seasons, taking into account date and group roses and placements.

The find is no surprise to me. It is what I suspected last week and put out as my guess at least at this point in the process.
When you look through all the smoke, JP has a target over his heart.

If I knew how duh, I would scan Ep. 2 RC of both Jake's and Ali's seasons and show you that F1 Vienna and F1 Roberto are standing in the back row in almost identically the same spot as JP.
In fact, if you count off 3 from the back row left end, Vienna and JP are in the same spot. Roberto is the 4th from the end spot on the back row.

Why is the backrow or the mid to left side of the picture important?
The F1 usually does not come into play greatly in the 2nd episode. We will see a small cameo appearance, and an interaction such as the pre-rose 1-1 talk (and surprisingly a strategic kiss) that Ashley had with JP where she re-assurred him that everything was alright.
If, indeed JP is F1, then the purpose of such little interludes is to tell the story and to contribute to the rising action, and we will see some type of interaction – regardless of how small – whether he has a date that episode or not.

All of that is said because the right side of the RC picture is where Ep.2 rosees stand - the 1-1 dates as well as the receipient of the group rose. When I look back over the last few seasons, I have also noticed that they like to throw in the F2 for good measure as well - not always, but often.

We traveled all day, and I am tired, I can't wait to hear y'all dog ole Bentley. Man, oh man, I hate to give Fleiss extra credit, but was he ever right about Bentley. affraid

Tomorrow, I will read it!


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Post by Admin Tue May 31, 2011 11:52 pm

Bloomers wrote:Hi, everybody! I have been on vacation and have just gotten back home. I did get to watch the show last night, but no one else in the condo wanted to see it but me, so I had to watch it in my room on a very small tv - without any notes or anything.
I did take a moment before coming on this thread to look at the
Screencaps Only thread at the RC line-up and at the toast and then back at the hard copies that I have of the past few seasons, taking into account date and group roses and placements.

The find is no surprise to me. It is what I suspected last week and put out as my guess at least at this point in the process.
When you look through all the smoke, JP has a target over his heart.

If I knew how duh, I would scan Ep. 2 RC of both Jake's and Ali's seasons and show you that F1 Vienna and F1 Roberto are standing in the back row in almost identically the same spot as JP.
In fact, if you count off 3 from the back row left end, Vienna and JP are in the same spot. Roberto is the 4th from the end spot on the back row.

Why is the backrow or the mid to left side of the picture important?
The F1 usually does not come into play greatly in the 2nd episode. We will see a small cameo appearance, and an interaction such as the pre-rose 1-1 talk (and surprisingly a strategic kiss) that Ashley had with JP where she re-assurred him that everything was alright.
If, indeed JP is F1, then the purpose of such little interludes is to tell the story and to contribute to the rising action, and we will see some type of interaction – regardless of how small – whether he has a date that episode or not.

All of that is said because the right side of the RC picture is where Ep.2 rosees stand - the 1-1 dates as well as the receipient of the group rose. When I look back over the last few seasons, I have also noticed that they like to throw in the F2 for good measure as well - not always, but often.

We traveled all day, and I am tired, I can't wait to hear y'all dog ole Bentley. Man, oh man, I hate to give Fleiss extra credit, but was he ever right about Bentley. affraid

Tomorrow, I will read it!

I have a small Rose Ceremony lineup from Ali's season episode 2~

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Post by Admin Tue May 31, 2011 11:52 pm

Welcome back Bloomers!! We missed you!!
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Post by Love_Me Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:16 am

Welcome back Bloomers. Not sure if this is what you are looking for:

Bachelorette 7 - THE EDIT - Thread #1 - Page 14 2011-072





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Post by connorsmom Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:38 am

Bonbonlover wrote:Why is the edit so heavy on the guys signing up for Chantal or Emily? It just seems they are trying to throw Ashley under the bus.

I think it's the setup of Ashley's "journey" through the show, just carried over from Brad's season. She was the "insecure" girl and her insecurity "cost her the guy." So of course they are going to amp up whatever drama they can to really pull out those insecurities, shine a few spotlights on them, and pick at them until they bleed. Then she has the obstacles of not doing what she did with Brad, focusing on her insecurities and pulling away rather than giving it all an honest chance. And then, finally, she'll give her heart completely... and we'll be left to wonder if the guy will do the same or break her heart. All so when Ashley gets her guy in the end, her storyline comes full circle.

I hadn't thought about this, but I wonder if they storyboard this show with the turning point story structure used in screenwriting and fiction: We start with the setup of the show, then 25% of the way through, a major turning point shifts the direction (which would seem to fit Bentley in next week's ep)... then 50% of the way through, another turning point shifts directions again. Then about 80% of the way through, one more turning point lays all the cards on the table and we get down to the resolution of things. When I studied this, I watched about ten movies that all had exactly this structure - and a number of books had the same. I wonder if it's used here, too? That would be pretty telling as to how much this show is edited to follow a story. LOL
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Post by Alanna Wed Jun 01, 2011 8:17 am

Bloomers wrote:Hi, everybody!
[snip]

The find is no surprise to me. It is what I suspected last week and put out as my guess at least at this point in the process.
When you look through all the smoke, JP has a target over his heart.

[snip]
Tomorrow, I will read it!

Snipped for brevity but what an awesome post! I always look forward to your analysis. And the bolded made me laugh outloud!! It sounds like Ash is a bullet this poor dude just cannot avoid. Better luck next time, buddy! LOL!


connorsmom wrote:
I think it's the setup of Ashley's "journey" through the show, just carried over from Brad's season. [snip]

I hadn't thought about this, but I wonder if they storyboard this show with the turning point story structure used in screenwriting and fiction: [snip]

I also love this post. I really wonder if you're right and they use a similar device every season? Hmm.


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Post by Bloomers Wed Jun 01, 2011 10:10 am

Very early post - sorry that it did not copy the date.


debt2dreams wrote:
Bloomers wrote:
jurystillout wrote:Here is what I have seen for the past few seasons. The top three contestants always seem to have there 1x1 dates in the following order: Episode 2, F3 person, Episode 3, F1 person and Episode 4, F2 person. This has been true for Brad's and Ali's seasons. In Jillian's season, Ed and Kiptyn followed this pattern except for Reid which got his date in episode 4 and he was F3 instead of the F2 person. The 2x1 one date moved from episode 4 to episode 5 starting in Ali's season. The F3 is always the one they want but is never over there ex or ready to let go. Ex. Ashley and Frank. Whoever gets the 2nd 1x1 date on Episode 2 never makes it HTD. The person that gets the 1st 1x1 on Episode 3 tends to be the F1 in the end, this has been for Brad, Ali, and Jillians season. I was going to post this in a spreadsheet format, but it was easier to just describe instead. :D

Has anyone else noticed that when the Bachelor is really into a Lady they tend to hold there head in there hands in a very romantic but soft way when they kiss? Brad did that a lot with Emily and Chantal.

In the last couple of seasons the F3s had their 1-1 during the 2nd episode, but both Ali and Graham (F4) as well as Melissa (F1) had 1-1s in the 2nd episode, so the pattern doesn't stay consistent. It is true that the 4th episode has often been the 1-1 spot for the F2, and the 3rd episode seems to be a favorite roost for the F1. At some point, my suspicion is that the producers will look to change up the F1 and F2 one and one episode dates if for no other reasons but to throw people off.

So glad to see you here Bloomers, I ALWAYS LOVE your insight! Great points! danceround
Do I sound paranoid? :winkie: Well, they have been changing a few things up here and there in the last couple of seasons....

I was talking with Love_Me, and I was telling her that they are going to get their F4 out of episodes 2, 3, 4, 5. They will get 1 of the F4 from one of the two 1-1s from Ep. 2. They will get one of the F4 from the two 1-1s from Ep.3. They will get 1 of the F4 from the 1-1 date during episode 4. They may have another 1-1, or they may have a 2-1, or something else, but they have to get one of the F4 from that episode. It happens every season. Then they have to get l of the F4 from a 1-1 in Ep.5.

Now, this is since Matt's season. With Matt's season, there was no single date during Ep.2, and both F4 and F2 got their 1-1 during Episode 5.

The other exception was Jillian's season, and here is what I believe in retrospect happened!
Jake - yes Jake, had that 2nd episode date. I believe that Jake was originally supposed to have been in the F4. We saw all of that preview stuff on Jake - a lot of emphasis on him for him to only be an F9.
I think Jillian did not take to Jake. She just was not attracted to him and told the producers.
As a result, Reid was entered in and given that very late EPisode 6 date. We have never seen anyone given a first date that late in the season (ep 6) and be in the F4. That is why I think Jake was supposed to have originally been in the F4.

Anyway, if you can figure out who is left as of now - who had dates about when - you might have a fairly good chance at figuring out who might possibly be in your F4 based on their dates.

I hope this helps in some way....

Bloomers I am so happy to see you posting, I ALWAYS LOVE your posts, so insightful. Something interesting is that Ali, Ashley and Jake all had 2nd episode dates....is that a pattern, the very first date we should look to see if that may be a potential next Bachelor??
Alanna wrote:Bloomers, so happy you're here!! Awesome post, as always!

Debt, I've always assumed the first 1:1 goes to someone who is dynamic, fun, and has lots of potential with the lead so the season starts out with a bang. Coincidentally, those types of people are also the types who make great leads themselves. Jake is an anomaly. Ugh.

Boy, here in retrospect are some early interesting thoughts. Since the seasons dating back to DeAnna have produced at least one contestant with a 1-1 date out of the F4 in Ep. 2, I now think in watching that 1-1 date with William, in looking at the group picture placement, and in reading the upcoming episode descriptions of William's actions that William was originally intended to be our F3.
He gets that first 1-1 like Ashley did. He is cute, exciting, and fun! However, although William calms the qualms that she has about his lack of seriousness, William nevertheless still exhibits a Peter Pan side in that he really doesn't want to grow up.
His goal in life is to tell jokes, and unfortunately many standup comedians get their laughs at the expense of other people. If you are not that other person, it may be easier to laugh, but Ashley is going to be that person - the butt of the joke.
There may be another reason eventually given, but the edit is showing us why William is not our F3.
I was raised in a military family. The men in the military have a term they use when a man just blows it big time. If you will excuse the roughness, (I will substitute with a pronoun, but you will get the idea)....William stepped on it. 🇳🇴


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Post by Nibbles22 Wed Jun 01, 2011 12:56 pm

JBF ~ I am so excited to see you here!! :db: I'll be looking forward
to reading your posts all season!

Bloomers ~ welcome back from vacation!! 👋 Question ~ do you find that
there is any significance to the (early in the season) RC or toast placements,
before the bach/ette has a feel for the playing field? I know you've kept
statistics on all of these things, so I was curious.
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Post by Starshine_16 Wed Jun 01, 2011 1:10 pm

I am going to rewatch the latest episode today and this time take notes,paying particular attention to her interactions with the final 4. I wanna see if I can pick up on anything.
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Post by jello1592 Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:02 pm

Starshine_16 wrote:I am going to rewatch the latest episode today and this time take notes,paying particular attention to her interactions with the final 4. I wanna see if I can pick up on anything.

Im going back and watching the first episode! Not sure how much I will be able to pick up but we will see! Happy Watching! Smiley


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Post by nd4reality Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:23 pm

Starshine_16 wrote:I am going to rewatch the latest episode today and this time take notes,paying particular attention to her interactions with the final 4. I wanna see if I can pick up on anything.

I tried that and all I got for my troubles was the JP storyline begining its ascent. Please post what you find.


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Post by nd4reality Wed Jun 01, 2011 2:25 pm

Love_Me wrote:Welcome back Bloomers. Not sure if this is what you are looking for:

Bachelorette 7 - THE EDIT - Thread #1 - Page 14 2011-072





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I'm probably blind but cannot see the F1 placement vs previous seasons F1 placement. Can someone pl. explain ........perhaps in the SC discussions thread if necessary ?


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